解剖学和形态学
麻醉学
听力与言语-语言病理学
行为科学
心脏和心血管系统
细胞和组织工程学
临床神经病学
危重症监护医学
牙科,口腔外科和医学
皮肤病学
急诊医学
内分泌学和新陈代谢
肠胃学和肝脏学
老人病学和老年医学
卫生保健科学和服务
血液学
免疫学
传染病
综合和补充性医学
医学伦理学
医学信息学
医学实验室技术
医学,全科和内科
医学,法律
医学,研究和试验
神经系统科学
护理
营养学和饮食学
产科医学和妇科医学
肿瘤学
眼科学
整形外科学
耳鼻喉科学
病理学
儿科学
周围血管疾病
药理学和药剂学
生理学
基本医疗保健
精神病学
公共、环境和职业卫生
放射学,核医学和医学成像
康复学
生殖生物学
呼吸系统
风湿病学
运动科学
外科学
毒理学
热带医学
泌尿学和肾脏学
病毒学
老年医学
健康政策和服务
心理学,临床
abstract::Previous exposure to influenza viruses confers cross-immunity against future infections with related strains. However, this is not always accounted for explicitly in mathematical models used for forecasting during influenza outbreaks. We show that, if an influenza outbreak is due to a strain that is similar to one tha...
journal_title:Epidemics
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2020.100432
更新日期:2020-12-17 00:00:00
abstract::Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, many countries have implemented a complete lockdown of their population that may not be sustainable for long. To identify the best strategy to replace this full lockdown, sophisticated models that rely on mobility data have been developed. In this study, using the example of France as a c...
journal_title:Epidemics
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2020.100424
更新日期:2020-12-01 00:00:00
abstract::To reach the WHO goal of hepatitis C elimination, it is essential to identify the number of people unaware of their hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection and to investigate the effect of interventions on the disease transmission dynamics. In many high-income countries, one of the primary routes of HCV transmission is via ...
journal_title:Epidemics
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2019.100378
更新日期:2019-12-11 00:00:00
abstract::Human infection with Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) is driven by recurring dromedary-to-human spill-over events, leading decision-makers to consider dromedary vaccination. Dromedary vaccine candidates in the development pipeline are showing hopeful results, but gaps in our understanding of the...
journal_title:Epidemics
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2019.100350
更新日期:2019-12-01 00:00:00
abstract::Many pathogens of conservation concern circulate endemically within natural wildlife reservoir hosts and it is imperative to understand the individual and ecological drivers of natural transmission dynamics, if any threat to a related endangered species is to be assessed. Our study highlights the key drivers of infect...
journal_title:Epidemics
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2019.100352
更新日期:2019-09-01 00:00:00
abstract::Seasonal influenza is a worldwide public health concern. Forecasting its dynamics can improve the management of public health regulations, resources and infrastructure, and eventually reduce mortality and the costs induced by influenza-related absenteism. In Belgium, a network of Sentinel General Practitioners (SGPs) ...
journal_title:Epidemics
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2019.04.001
更新日期:2019-09-01 00:00:00
abstract::Emerging evidence suggests that HIV incidence rates in Brazil, particularly among men, may be rising. Here we use Brazil's integrated health systems data to develop a mathematical model, reproducing the complex surveillance systems and providing estimates of HIV incidence, number of people living with HIV (PLHIV), rep...
journal_title:Epidemics
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2019.02.002
更新日期:2019-06-01 00:00:00
abstract::Dengue dynamics are shaped by the complex interplay between several factors, including vector seasonality, interaction between four virus serotypes, and inapparent infections. However, paucity or quality of data do not allow for all of these to be taken into account in mathematical models. In order to explore separate...
journal_title:Epidemics
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2018.08.004
更新日期:2019-03-01 00:00:00
abstract::Healthcare-associated infections cause significant patient morbidity and mortality, and contribute to growing healthcare costs, whose effects may be felt most strongly in developing countries. Active surveillance systems, hospital staff compliance, including hand hygiene, and a rational use of antimicrobials are among...
journal_title:Epidemics
pub_type: 杂志文章,多中心研究
doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2018.11.001
更新日期:2019-03-01 00:00:00
abstract::Using Medicare claims data on prescriptions of oseltamivir dispensed to people 65 years old and older, we present a descriptive analysis of patterns of influenza activity in the United States for 579 core-based statistical areas (CBSAs) from the 2010-2011 through the 2015-2016 influenza seasons. During this time, 1,01...
journal_title:Epidemics
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2018.08.002
更新日期:2019-03-01 00:00:00
abstract::Fitting complex models to epidemiological data is a challenging problem: methodologies can be inaccessible to all but specialists, there may be challenges in adequately describing uncertainty in model fitting, the complex models may take a long time to run, and it can be difficult to fully capture the heterogeneity in...
journal_title:Epidemics
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2018.05.009
更新日期:2018-12-01 00:00:00
abstract:INTRODUCTION:Mathematical models that incorporate HIV disease progression dynamics can estimate the potential impact of strategies that delay HIV disease progression and reduce infectiousness for persons not on antiretroviral therapy (ART). Suppressive treatment of HIV-positive persons co-infected with herpes simplex v...
journal_title:Epidemics
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2017.12.001
更新日期:2018-06-01 00:00:00
abstract::Incidence of whooping cough exhibits variable dynamics across time and space. The periodicity of this disease varies from annual to five years in different geographic regions in both developing and developed countries. Many hypotheses have been put forward to explain this variability such as nonlinearity and seasonali...
journal_title:Epidemics
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2017.12.005
更新日期:2018-06-01 00:00:00
abstract::Mathematical models of disease transmission are used to improve our understanding of patterns of infection and to identify factors influencing them. During recent public and animal health crises, such as pandemic influenza, Ebola, Zika, foot-and-mouth disease, models have made important contributions in addressing pol...
journal_title:Epidemics
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2017.12.003
更新日期:2018-06-01 00:00:00
abstract::Real-time forecasts of infectious diseases can help public health planning, especially during outbreaks. If forecasts are generated from mechanistic models, they can be further used to target resources or to compare the impact of possible interventions. However, paremeterising such models is often difficult in real ti...
journal_title:Epidemics
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2016.11.003
更新日期:2018-03-01 00:00:00
abstract::Producing timely, well-informed and reliable forecasts for an ongoing epidemic of an emerging infectious disease is a huge challenge. Epidemiologists and policy makers have to deal with poor data quality, limited understanding of the disease dynamics, rapidly changing social environment and the uncertainty on effects ...
journal_title:Epidemics
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2017.02.010
更新日期:2018-03-01 00:00:00
abstract:OBJECTIVE:Previous HPV models have only included genital transmission, when evidence suggests that transmission between several anatomical sites occurs. We compared model predictions of population-level HPV vaccination effectiveness against genital HPV16 infection in women, using a 1) uni-site (genital site), and a 2) ...
journal_title:Epidemics
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2017.08.001
更新日期:2017-12-01 00:00:00
abstract::Although empirical studies show that protection against influenza infection in humans is closely related to antibody titres, influenza epidemics are often described under the assumption that individuals are either susceptible or not. Here we develop a model in which antibody titre classes are enumerated explicitly and...
journal_title:Epidemics
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2017.03.003
更新日期:2017-09-01 00:00:00
abstract::Coexistence of multiple tick-borne pathogens or strains is common in natural hosts and can be facilitated by resource partitioning of the host species, within-host localization, or by different transmission pathways. Most vector-borne pathogens are transmitted horizontally via systemic host infection, but transmission...
journal_title:Epidemics
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2016.12.002
更新日期:2017-06-01 00:00:00
abstract::Computer models have proven to be useful tools in studying epidemic disease in human populations. Such models are being used by a broader base of researchers, and it has become more important to ensure that descriptions of model construction and data analyses are clear and communicate important features of model struc...
journal_title:Epidemics
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2016.12.001
更新日期:2017-06-01 00:00:00
abstract:BACKGROUND:Brazil has the second highest annual number of new leprosy cases. The aim of this study is to formally compare predictions of future new case detection rate (NCDR) trends and the annual probability of NCDR falling below 10/100,000 of four different modelling approaches in four states of Brazil: Rio Grande do...
journal_title:Epidemics
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2017.01.005
更新日期:2017-03-01 00:00:00
abstract::Dengue is one of the most important and wide-spread viral infections affecting human populations. The last few decades have seen a dramatic increase in the global burden of dengue, with the virus now being endemic or near-endemic in over 100 countries world-wide. A recombinant tetravalent vaccine candidate (CYD-TDV) h...
journal_title:Epidemics
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2016.05.003
更新日期:2016-09-01 00:00:00
abstract:OBJECTIVES:There has been a growing concern over Zika virus (ZIKV) infection, particularly since a probable link between ZIKV infection during pregnancy and microcephaly in the baby was identified. The present study aimed to estimate a theoretical risk of microcephaly during pregnancy with ZIKV infection in Northeaster...
journal_title:Epidemics
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2016.03.001
更新日期:2016-06-01 00:00:00
abstract::Following transmission, HIV-1 adapts in the new host by acquiring mutations that allow it to escape from the host immune response at multiple epitopes. It also reverts mutations associated with epitopes targeted in the transmitting host but not in the new host. Moreover, escape mutations are often associated with addi...
journal_title:Epidemics
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2015.09.001
更新日期:2016-03-01 00:00:00
abstract:BACKGROUND:From 2007 to 2009, the Netherlands experienced a major Q fever epidemic. Long-term serological follow-up of acute Q fever patients enabled the investigation of longitudinal antibody responses and estimating the onset of the seroresponse in individual patients. METHODS:All available IgG and IgM phase I and I...
journal_title:Epidemics
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2015.07.001
更新日期:2015-12-01 00:00:00
abstract::Inference on disease dynamics is typically performed using case reporting time series of symptomatic disease. The inferred dynamics will vary depending on the reporting patterns and surveillance system for the disease in question, and the inference will miss mild or underreported epidemics. To eliminate the variation ...
journal_title:Epidemics
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2015.02.005
更新日期:2015-09-01 00:00:00
abstract::The effectiveness of vaccinating males against the human papillomavirus (HPV) remains a controversial subject. Many existing studies conclude that increasing female coverage is more effective than diverting resources into male vaccination. Recently, several empirical studies on HPV immunization have been published, pr...
journal_title:Epidemics
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2015.01.003
更新日期:2015-06-01 00:00:00
abstract::Studying the emergence of novel infectious agents involves many processes spanning host species, spatial scales, and scientific disciplines. Mathematical models play an essential role in combining insights from these investigations and drawing robust inferences from field and experimental data. We describe nine challe...
journal_title:Epidemics
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2014.09.002
更新日期:2015-03-01 00:00:00
abstract::Public health-related decision-making on policies aimed at controlling epidemics is increasingly evidence-based, exploiting multiple sources of data. Policy makers rely on complex models that are required to be robust, realistically approximating epidemics and consistent with all relevant data. Meeting these requireme...
journal_title:Epidemics
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2014.09.004
更新日期:2015-03-01 00:00:00
abstract:BACKGROUND:Pathogenic bacteria are often asymptomatically carried in the nasopharynx. Bacterial carriage can be reduced by vaccination and has been used as an alternative endpoint to clinical disease in randomised controlled trials (RCTs). Vaccine efficacy (VE) is usually calculated as 1 minus a measure of effect. Esti...
journal_title:Epidemics
pub_type: 杂志文章,随机对照试验
doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2014.08.003
更新日期:2014-12-01 00:00:00
abstract::The sociological and biological factors which gave rise to the three pandemic waves of Spanish influenza in England during 1918-19 are still poorly understood. Symptom reporting data available for a limited set of locations in England indicates that reinfection in multiple waves occurred, suggesting a role for loss of...
journal_title:Epidemics
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2014.07.004
更新日期:2014-09-01 00:00:00
abstract::Mathematical modeling of disease transmission has provided quantitative predictions for health policy, facilitating the evaluation of epidemiological outcomes and the cost-effectiveness of interventions. However, typical sensitivity analyses of deterministic dynamic infectious disease models focus on model architectur...
journal_title:Epidemics
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2013.11.002
更新日期:2014-03-01 00:00:00
abstract::Many diseases exhibit subcritical transmission (i.e. 0 journal_title:Epidemics pub_type: 杂志文章 doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2013.05.002 更新日期:2013-09-01 00:00:00
abstract::Disease models which take explicit account of heterogeneities in the risk of infection offer significant advantages over models in which the risk of infection is assumed to be uniform across all hosts. However, estimating the incidence rate (force of infection) in the different at-risk (exposure) groups is no easy mat...
journal_title:Epidemics
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2013.04.002
更新日期:2013-06-01 00:00:00
abstract::Episodic high-risk sexual behavior is common and can have a profound effect on HIV transmission. In a model of HIV transmission among men who have sex with men (MSM), changing the frequency, duration and contact rates of high-risk episodes can take endemic prevalence from zero to 50% and more than double transmissions...
journal_title:Epidemics
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2012.11.003
更新日期:2013-03-01 00:00:00
abstract::For infections that are typically asymptomatic, targeted surveillance systems (whereby individuals at increased risk are tested more frequently) will detect infections earlier on average than systems with random testing or in systems where all individuals are tested at the same intervals. However, estimating temporal ...
journal_title:Epidemics
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2012.09.003
更新日期:2012-12-01 00:00:00
abstract::Influenza infection natural history is often described as a progression through four successive stages: Susceptible-Exposed/Latent-Infectious-Removed (SEIR). The duration of each stage determines the average generation time, the time between infection of a case and infection of his/her infector. Recently, several auth...
journal_title:Epidemics
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2012.06.001
更新日期:2012-08-01 00:00:00
abstract::Syndromic and virological data are routinely collected by many countries and are often the only information available in real time. The analysis of surveillance data poses many statistical challenges that have not yet been addressed. For instance, the fraction of cases that seek healthcare and are thus detected is oft...
journal_title:Epidemics
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2011.11.001
更新日期:2012-03-01 00:00:00
abstract::Disease is a major constraint on animal production and welfare in agriculture and aquaculture. Movement of animals between farms is one of the most significant routes of disease transmission and is particularly hard to control for pathogens with subclinical infection. Renibacterium salmoninarum causes bacterial kidney...
journal_title:Epidemics
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2011.10.002
更新日期:2011-09-01 00:00:00
abstract::A stochastic, spatial, discrete-time, SEIR model of avian influenza epidemics among poultry farms in Pennsylvania is formulated. Using three different spatial scales wherein all the birds within a single farm, ZIP code, or county are clustered into a single point, we obtain three different views of the epidemics. For ...
journal_title:Epidemics
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2011.02.003
更新日期:2011-06-01 00:00:00