A theoretical estimate of the risk of microcephaly during pregnancy with Zika virus infection.

Abstract:

OBJECTIVES:There has been a growing concern over Zika virus (ZIKV) infection, particularly since a probable link between ZIKV infection during pregnancy and microcephaly in the baby was identified. The present study aimed to estimate a theoretical risk of microcephaly during pregnancy with ZIKV infection in Northeastern Brazil in 2015. METHODS:Temporal distributions of microcephaly, reported dengue-like illness and dengue seropositive in Brazil were extracted from secondary data sources. Using an integral equation model and a backcalculation technique, we estimated the risk of microcephaly during pregnancy with Zika virus infection. RESULTS:If the fraction of Zika virus infections among a total of seronegative dengue-like illness cases is 30%, the risk of microcephaly following infection during the first trimester was estimated at 46.7% (95% CI: 9.1, 84.2), comparable to the risk of congenital rubella syndrome. However, the risk of microcephaly was shown to vary widely from 14.0% to 100%. The mean gestational age at delivery with microcephaly was estimated at 37.5 weeks (95% CI: 36.9, 39.3). CONCLUSIONS:The time interval between peaks of reported dengue-like illness and microcephaly was consistent with cause-outcome relationship. Our modeling framework predicts that the incidence of microcephaly is expected to steadily decline in early 2016, Brazil.

journal_name

Epidemics

journal_title

Epidemics

authors

Nishiura H,Mizumoto K,Rock KS,Yasuda Y,Kinoshita R,Miyamatsu Y

doi

10.1016/j.epidem.2016.03.001

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

2016-06-01 00:00:00

pages

66-70

eissn

1755-4365

issn

1878-0067

pii

S1755-4365(16)30009-3

journal_volume

15

pub_type

杂志文章
  • H1N1pdm in the Americas.

    abstract::In late April 2009 the emergence of 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1pdm) virus was detected in humans. From its detection through July 18th, 2009, confirmed cases of H1N1pdm in the Americas were periodically reported to the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) by member states. Because the Americas span much of the ...

    journal_title:Epidemics

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2010.07.001

    authors: Lessler J,Dos Santos T,Aguilera X,Brookmeyer R,PAHO Influenza Technical Working Group.,Cummings DAT

    更新日期:2010-09-01 00:00:00

  • Estimating influenza latency and infectious period durations using viral excretion data.

    abstract::Influenza infection natural history is often described as a progression through four successive stages: Susceptible-Exposed/Latent-Infectious-Removed (SEIR). The duration of each stage determines the average generation time, the time between infection of a case and infection of his/her infector. Recently, several auth...

    journal_title:Epidemics

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2012.06.001

    authors: Cori A,Valleron AJ,Carrat F,Scalia Tomba G,Thomas G,Boëlle PY

    更新日期:2012-08-01 00:00:00

  • Dynamic modeling of hepatitis C transmission among people who inject drugs.

    abstract::To reach the WHO goal of hepatitis C elimination, it is essential to identify the number of people unaware of their hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection and to investigate the effect of interventions on the disease transmission dynamics. In many high-income countries, one of the primary routes of HCV transmission is via ...

    journal_title:Epidemics

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2019.100378

    authors: Stocks T,Martin LJ,Kühlmann-Berenzon S,Britton T

    更新日期:2019-12-11 00:00:00

  • Estimating HIV incidence from surveillance data indicates a second wave of infections in Brazil.

    abstract::Emerging evidence suggests that HIV incidence rates in Brazil, particularly among men, may be rising. Here we use Brazil's integrated health systems data to develop a mathematical model, reproducing the complex surveillance systems and providing estimates of HIV incidence, number of people living with HIV (PLHIV), rep...

    journal_title:Epidemics

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2019.02.002

    authors: Mangal TD,Pascom ARP,Vesga JF,Meireles MV,Benzaken AS,Hallett TB

    更新日期:2019-06-01 00:00:00

  • Understanding the dynamics of rapidly evolving pathogens through modeling the tempo of antigenic change: influenza as a case study.

    abstract::Rapidly evolving pathogens present a major conceptual and mathematical challenge to our understanding of disease dynamics. For these pathogens, the simulation of disease dynamics requires the use of computational models that incorporate pathogen evolution. Currently, these models are limited by two factors. First, the...

    journal_title:Epidemics

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2009.05.003

    authors: Koelle K,Kamradt M,Pascual M

    更新日期:2009-06-01 00:00:00

  • Effects of abundance on infection in natural populations: field voles and cowpox virus.

    abstract::Detailed results on the dynamics of cowpox virus infection in four natural populations of the field vole, Microtus agrestis, are presented. Populations were sampled every 4 weeks (8 weeks in mid-winter) for 6 years. The purpose was to examine the relationships between overall or susceptible host abundance (N, S) and b...

    journal_title:Epidemics

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2008.10.001

    authors: Begon M,Telfer S,Burthe S,Lambin X,Smith MJ,Paterson S

    更新日期:2009-03-01 00:00:00

  • The influence of changing host immunity on 1918-19 pandemic dynamics.

    abstract::The sociological and biological factors which gave rise to the three pandemic waves of Spanish influenza in England during 1918-19 are still poorly understood. Symptom reporting data available for a limited set of locations in England indicates that reinfection in multiple waves occurred, suggesting a role for loss of...

    journal_title:Epidemics

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2014.07.004

    authors: Bolton KJ,McCaw JM,McVernon J,Mathews JD

    更新日期:2014-09-01 00:00:00

  • Dengue modeling in rural Cambodia: Statistical performance versus epidemiological relevance.

    abstract::Dengue dynamics are shaped by the complex interplay between several factors, including vector seasonality, interaction between four virus serotypes, and inapparent infections. However, paucity or quality of data do not allow for all of these to be taken into account in mathematical models. In order to explore separate...

    journal_title:Epidemics

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2018.08.004

    authors: Champagne C,Paul R,Ly S,Duong V,Leang R,Cazelles B

    更新日期:2019-03-01 00:00:00

  • Estimating risk over time using data from targeted surveillance systems: application to bovine tuberculosis in Great Britain.

    abstract::For infections that are typically asymptomatic, targeted surveillance systems (whereby individuals at increased risk are tested more frequently) will detect infections earlier on average than systems with random testing or in systems where all individuals are tested at the same intervals. However, estimating temporal ...

    journal_title:Epidemics

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2012.09.003

    authors: Blake IM,Donnelly CA

    更新日期:2012-12-01 00:00:00

  • Detectable signals of episodic risk effects on acute HIV transmission: strategies for analyzing transmission systems using genetic data.

    abstract::Episodic high-risk sexual behavior is common and can have a profound effect on HIV transmission. In a model of HIV transmission among men who have sex with men (MSM), changing the frequency, duration and contact rates of high-risk episodes can take endemic prevalence from zero to 50% and more than double transmissions...

    journal_title:Epidemics

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2012.11.003

    authors: Alam SJ,Zhang X,Romero-Severson EO,Henry C,Zhong L,Volz EM,Brenner BG,Koopman JS

    更新日期:2013-03-01 00:00:00

  • Epidemics and control strategies for diseases of farmed salmonids: a parameter study.

    abstract::The susceptibility of the English and Welsh fish farming and fisheries industry to emergent diseases is assessed using a stochastic simulation model. The model dynamics operate on a network comprising directed transport and river contacts, as well as undirected local and fomite transmissions. The directed connections ...

    journal_title:Epidemics

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2010.08.001

    authors: Jonkers AR,Sharkey KJ,Thrush MA,Turnbull JF,Morgan KL

    更新日期:2010-12-01 00:00:00

  • A systematic review of MERS-CoV seroprevalence and RNA prevalence in dromedary camels: Implications for animal vaccination.

    abstract::Human infection with Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) is driven by recurring dromedary-to-human spill-over events, leading decision-makers to consider dromedary vaccination. Dromedary vaccine candidates in the development pipeline are showing hopeful results, but gaps in our understanding of the...

    journal_title:Epidemics

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2019.100350

    authors: Dighe A,Jombart T,Van Kerkhove MD,Ferguson N

    更新日期:2019-12-01 00:00:00

  • A new approach to characterising infectious disease transmission dynamics from sentinel surveillance: application to the Italian 2009-2010 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic.

    abstract::Syndromic and virological data are routinely collected by many countries and are often the only information available in real time. The analysis of surveillance data poses many statistical challenges that have not yet been addressed. For instance, the fraction of cases that seek healthcare and are thus detected is oft...

    journal_title:Epidemics

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2011.11.001

    authors: Dorigatti I,Cauchemez S,Pugliese A,Ferguson NM

    更新日期:2012-03-01 00:00:00

  • The role of intra and inter-hospital patient transfer in the dissemination of heathcare-associated multidrug-resistant pathogens.

    abstract::Healthcare-associated infections cause significant patient morbidity and mortality, and contribute to growing healthcare costs, whose effects may be felt most strongly in developing countries. Active surveillance systems, hospital staff compliance, including hand hygiene, and a rational use of antimicrobials are among...

    journal_title:Epidemics

    pub_type: 杂志文章,多中心研究

    doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2018.11.001

    authors: Vilches TN,Bonesso MF,Guerra HM,Fortaleza CMCB,Park AW,Ferreira CP

    更新日期:2019-03-01 00:00:00

  • Impact of coverage-dependent marginal costs on optimal HPV vaccination strategies.

    abstract::The effectiveness of vaccinating males against the human papillomavirus (HPV) remains a controversial subject. Many existing studies conclude that increasing female coverage is more effective than diverting resources into male vaccination. Recently, several empirical studies on HPV immunization have been published, pr...

    journal_title:Epidemics

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2015.01.003

    authors: Ryser MD,McGoff K,Herzog DP,Sivakoff DJ,Myers ER

    更新日期:2015-06-01 00:00:00

  • The drivers of squirrelpox virus dynamics in its grey squirrel reservoir host.

    abstract::Many pathogens of conservation concern circulate endemically within natural wildlife reservoir hosts and it is imperative to understand the individual and ecological drivers of natural transmission dynamics, if any threat to a related endangered species is to be assessed. Our study highlights the key drivers of infect...

    journal_title:Epidemics

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2019.100352

    authors: Chantrey J,Dale T,Jones D,Begon M,Fenton A

    更新日期:2019-09-01 00:00:00

  • The impact of lockdown strategies targeting age groups on the burden of COVID-19 in France.

    abstract::Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, many countries have implemented a complete lockdown of their population that may not be sustainable for long. To identify the best strategy to replace this full lockdown, sophisticated models that rely on mobility data have been developed. In this study, using the example of France as a c...

    journal_title:Epidemics

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2020.100424

    authors: Roche B,Garchitorena A,Roiz D

    更新日期:2020-12-01 00:00:00

  • Defining epidemics in computer simulation models: How do definitions influence conclusions?

    abstract::Computer models have proven to be useful tools in studying epidemic disease in human populations. Such models are being used by a broader base of researchers, and it has become more important to ensure that descriptions of model construction and data analyses are clear and communicate important features of model struc...

    journal_title:Epidemics

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2016.12.001

    authors: Orbann C,Sattenspiel L,Miller E,Dimka J

    更新日期:2017-06-01 00:00:00

  • Kinetics of antibody response to Coxiella burnetii infection (Q fever): Estimation of the seroresponse onset from antibody levels.

    abstract:BACKGROUND:From 2007 to 2009, the Netherlands experienced a major Q fever epidemic. Long-term serological follow-up of acute Q fever patients enabled the investigation of longitudinal antibody responses and estimating the onset of the seroresponse in individual patients. METHODS:All available IgG and IgM phase I and I...

    journal_title:Epidemics

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2015.07.001

    authors: Wielders CC,Teunis PF,Hermans MH,van der Hoek W,Schneeberger PM

    更新日期:2015-12-01 00:00:00

  • Timing of bacterial carriage sampling in vaccine trials: a modelling study.

    abstract:BACKGROUND:Pathogenic bacteria are often asymptomatically carried in the nasopharynx. Bacterial carriage can be reduced by vaccination and has been used as an alternative endpoint to clinical disease in randomised controlled trials (RCTs). Vaccine efficacy (VE) is usually calculated as 1 minus a measure of effect. Esti...

    journal_title:Epidemics

    pub_type: 杂志文章,随机对照试验

    doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2014.08.003

    authors: Scott P,Herzog SA,Auranen K,Dagan R,Low N,Egger M,Heijne JC

    更新日期:2014-12-01 00:00:00

  • Species interactions may help explain the erratic periodicity of whooping cough dynamics.

    abstract::Incidence of whooping cough exhibits variable dynamics across time and space. The periodicity of this disease varies from annual to five years in different geographic regions in both developing and developed countries. Many hypotheses have been put forward to explain this variability such as nonlinearity and seasonali...

    journal_title:Epidemics

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2017.12.005

    authors: Bhattacharyya S,Ferrari MJ,Bjørnstad ON

    更新日期:2018-06-01 00:00:00

  • An individual-based simulation of pneumonic plague transmission following an outbreak and the significance of intervention compliance.

    abstract::The existence of primary pneumonic plague outbreaks raises concerns over the use of the causative bacteria as an aerosol-based bioweapon. We employed an individual-based model, parameterised using published personal contact information, to assess the severity of a deliberate release in a discrete community, under the ...

    journal_title:Epidemics

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2011.03.001

    authors: Williams AD,Hall IM,Rubin GJ,Amlôt R,Leach S

    更新日期:2011-06-01 00:00:00

  • A prototype forecasting system for bird-borne disease spread in North America based on migratory bird movements.

    abstract::The past two decades have seen major outbreaks of influenza viruses and flaviviruses that are spread at least in part by migratory birds. Although much new information has accumulated on the natural history of the viruses, and on the geography of migration by individual bird species, no synthesis has been achieved reg...

    journal_title:Epidemics

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2009.11.003

    authors: Peterson AT,Andersen MJ,Bodbyl-Roels S,Hosner P,Nyári A,Oliveros C,Papeş M

    更新日期:2009-12-01 00:00:00

  • Stochastic modeling of animal epidemics using data collected over three different spatial scales.

    abstract::A stochastic, spatial, discrete-time, SEIR model of avian influenza epidemics among poultry farms in Pennsylvania is formulated. Using three different spatial scales wherein all the birds within a single farm, ZIP code, or county are clustered into a single point, we obtain three different views of the epidemics. For ...

    journal_title:Epidemics

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2011.02.003

    authors: Rorres C,Pelletier ST,Smith G

    更新日期:2011-06-01 00:00:00

  • epidemix-An interactive multi-model application for teaching and visualizing infectious disease transmission.

    abstract::Mathematical models of disease transmission are used to improve our understanding of patterns of infection and to identify factors influencing them. During recent public and animal health crises, such as pandemic influenza, Ebola, Zika, foot-and-mouth disease, models have made important contributions in addressing pol...

    journal_title:Epidemics

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2017.12.003

    authors: Muellner U,Fournié G,Muellner P,Ahlstrom C,Pfeiffer DU

    更新日期:2018-06-01 00:00:00

  • Statistical identifiability and sample size calculations for serial seroepidemiology.

    abstract::Inference on disease dynamics is typically performed using case reporting time series of symptomatic disease. The inferred dynamics will vary depending on the reporting patterns and surveillance system for the disease in question, and the inference will miss mild or underreported epidemics. To eliminate the variation ...

    journal_title:Epidemics

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2015.02.005

    authors: Vinh DN,Boni MF

    更新日期:2015-09-01 00:00:00

  • Dengue serotype immune-interactions and their consequences for vaccine impact predictions.

    abstract::Dengue is one of the most important and wide-spread viral infections affecting human populations. The last few decades have seen a dramatic increase in the global burden of dengue, with the virus now being endemic or near-endemic in over 100 countries world-wide. A recombinant tetravalent vaccine candidate (CYD-TDV) h...

    journal_title:Epidemics

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2016.05.003

    authors: Lourenço J,Recker M

    更新日期:2016-09-01 00:00:00

  • Using data-driven agent-based models for forecasting emerging infectious diseases.

    abstract::Producing timely, well-informed and reliable forecasts for an ongoing epidemic of an emerging infectious disease is a huge challenge. Epidemiologists and policy makers have to deal with poor data quality, limited understanding of the disease dynamics, rapidly changing social environment and the uncertainty on effects ...

    journal_title:Epidemics

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2017.02.010

    authors: Venkatramanan S,Lewis B,Chen J,Higdon D,Vullikanti A,Marathe M

    更新日期:2018-03-01 00:00:00

  • Real-time forecasting of infectious disease dynamics with a stochastic semi-mechanistic model.

    abstract::Real-time forecasts of infectious diseases can help public health planning, especially during outbreaks. If forecasts are generated from mechanistic models, they can be further used to target resources or to compare the impact of possible interventions. However, paremeterising such models is often difficult in real ti...

    journal_title:Epidemics

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2016.11.003

    authors: Funk S,Camacho A,Kucharski AJ,Eggo RM,Edmunds WJ

    更新日期:2018-03-01 00:00:00

  • Patterns of seasonal influenza activity in U.S. core-based statistical areas, described using prescriptions of oseltamivir in Medicare claims data.

    abstract::Using Medicare claims data on prescriptions of oseltamivir dispensed to people 65 years old and older, we present a descriptive analysis of patterns of influenza activity in the United States for 579 core-based statistical areas (CBSAs) from the 2010-2011 through the 2015-2016 influenza seasons. During this time, 1,01...

    journal_title:Epidemics

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2018.08.002

    authors: Dahlgren FS,Shay DK,Izurieta HS,Forshee RA,Wernecke M,Chillarige Y,Lu Y,Kelman JA,Reed C

    更新日期:2019-03-01 00:00:00