Four key challenges in infectious disease modelling using data from multiple sources.

abstract：:Disease models which take explicit account of heterogeneities in the risk of infection offer significant advantages over models in which the risk of infection is assumed to be uniform across all hosts. However, estimating the incidence rate (force of infection) in the different at-risk (exposure) groups is no easy mat...

journal_title：Epidemics

authors： Smith G

更新日期：2013-06-01 00:00:00

abstract：:Many pathogens of conservation concern circulate endemically within natural wildlife reservoir hosts and it is imperative to understand the individual and ecological drivers of natural transmission dynamics, if any threat to a related endangered species is to be assessed. Our study highlights the key drivers of infect...

journal_title：Epidemics

authors： Chantrey J,Dale T,Jones D,Begon M,Fenton A

更新日期：2019-09-01 00:00:00

abstract：:Emerging evidence suggests that HIV incidence rates in Brazil, particularly among men, may be rising. Here we use Brazil's integrated health systems data to develop a mathematical model, reproducing the complex surveillance systems and providing estimates of HIV incidence, number of people living with HIV (PLHIV), rep...

journal_title：Epidemics

authors： Mangal TD,Pascom ARP,Vesga JF,Meireles MV,Benzaken AS,Hallett TB

更新日期：2019-06-01 00:00:00

abstract：:Computer models have proven to be useful tools in studying epidemic disease in human populations. Such models are being used by a broader base of researchers, and it has become more important to ensure that descriptions of model construction and data analyses are clear and communicate important features of model struc...

journal_title：Epidemics

authors： Orbann C,Sattenspiel L,Miller E,Dimka J

更新日期：2017-06-01 00:00:00

abstract：:For infections that are typically asymptomatic, targeted surveillance systems (whereby individuals at increased risk are tested more frequently) will detect infections earlier on average than systems with random testing or in systems where all individuals are tested at the same intervals. However, estimating temporal ...

journal_title：Epidemics

authors： Blake IM,Donnelly CA

更新日期：2012-12-01 00:00:00

abstract：:Incidence of whooping cough exhibits variable dynamics across time and space. The periodicity of this disease varies from annual to five years in different geographic regions in both developing and developed countries. Many hypotheses have been put forward to explain this variability such as nonlinearity and seasonali...

journal_title：Epidemics

authors： Bhattacharyya S,Ferrari MJ,Bjørnstad ON

更新日期：2018-06-01 00:00:00

abstract：:Producing timely, well-informed and reliable forecasts for an ongoing epidemic of an emerging infectious disease is a huge challenge. Epidemiologists and policy makers have to deal with poor data quality, limited understanding of the disease dynamics, rapidly changing social environment and the uncertainty on effects ...

journal_title：Epidemics

authors： Venkatramanan S,Lewis B,Chen J,Higdon D,Vullikanti A,Marathe M

更新日期：2018-03-01 00:00:00

abstract：:Dengue is one of the most important and wide-spread viral infections affecting human populations. The last few decades have seen a dramatic increase in the global burden of dengue, with the virus now being endemic or near-endemic in over 100 countries world-wide. A recombinant tetravalent vaccine candidate (CYD-TDV) h...

journal_title：Epidemics

authors： Lourenço J,Recker M

更新日期：2016-09-01 00:00:00

abstract：:A stochastic, spatial, discrete-time, SEIR model of avian influenza epidemics among poultry farms in Pennsylvania is formulated. Using three different spatial scales wherein all the birds within a single farm, ZIP code, or county are clustered into a single point, we obtain three different views of the epidemics. For ...

journal_title：Epidemics

authors： Rorres C,Pelletier ST,Smith G

更新日期：2011-06-01 00:00:00

abstract：:Previous exposure to influenza viruses confers cross-immunity against future infections with related strains. However, this is not always accounted for explicitly in mathematical models used for forecasting during influenza outbreaks. We show that, if an influenza outbreak is due to a strain that is similar to one tha...

journal_title：Epidemics

authors： Sachak-Patwa R,Byrne HM,Thompson RN

更新日期：2020-12-17 00:00:00

abstract：:The existence of primary pneumonic plague outbreaks raises concerns over the use of the causative bacteria as an aerosol-based bioweapon. We employed an individual-based model, parameterised using published personal contact information, to assess the severity of a deliberate release in a discrete community, under the ...

journal_title：Epidemics

authors： Williams AD,Hall IM,Rubin GJ,Amlôt R,Leach S

更新日期：2011-06-01 00:00:00

abstract：:Mathematical models of disease transmission are used to improve our understanding of patterns of infection and to identify factors influencing them. During recent public and animal health crises, such as pandemic influenza, Ebola, Zika, foot-and-mouth disease, models have made important contributions in addressing pol...

journal_title：Epidemics

authors： Muellner U,Fournié G,Muellner P,Ahlstrom C,Pfeiffer DU

更新日期：2018-06-01 00:00:00

abstract：:Using Medicare claims data on prescriptions of oseltamivir dispensed to people 65 years old and older, we present a descriptive analysis of patterns of influenza activity in the United States for 579 core-based statistical areas (CBSAs) from the 2010-2011 through the 2015-2016 influenza seasons. During this time, 1,01...

journal_title：Epidemics

authors： Dahlgren FS,Shay DK,Izurieta HS,Forshee RA,Wernecke M,Chillarige Y,Lu Y,Kelman JA,Reed C

更新日期：2019-03-01 00:00:00

abstract：OBJECTIVE:Previous HPV models have only included genital transmission, when evidence suggests that transmission between several anatomical sites occurs. We compared model predictions of population-level HPV vaccination effectiveness against genital HPV16 infection in women, using a 1) uni-site (genital site), and a 2) ...

journal_title：Epidemics

authors： Lemieux-Mellouki P,Drolet M,Jit M,Gingras G,Brisson M

更新日期：2017-12-01 00:00:00

abstract：BACKGROUND:Pathogenic bacteria are often asymptomatically carried in the nasopharynx. Bacterial carriage can be reduced by vaccination and has been used as an alternative endpoint to clinical disease in randomised controlled trials (RCTs). Vaccine efficacy (VE) is usually calculated as 1 minus a measure of effect. Esti...

journal_title：Epidemics

authors： Scott P,Herzog SA,Auranen K,Dagan R,Low N,Egger M,Heijne JC

更新日期：2014-12-01 00:00:00

abstract：:Although empirical studies show that protection against influenza infection in humans is closely related to antibody titres, influenza epidemics are often described under the assumption that individuals are either susceptible or not. Here we develop a model in which antibody titre classes are enumerated explicitly and...

journal_title：Epidemics

authors： Yuan HY,Baguelin M,Kwok KO,Arinaminpathy N,van Leeuwen E,Riley S

更新日期：2017-09-01 00:00:00

abstract：:Studying the emergence of novel infectious agents involves many processes spanning host species, spatial scales, and scientific disciplines. Mathematical models play an essential role in combining insights from these investigations and drawing robust inferences from field and experimental data. We describe nine challe...

journal_title：Epidemics

authors： Lloyd-Smith JO,Funk S,McLean AR,Riley S,Wood JL

更新日期：2015-03-01 00:00:00

abstract：:Episodic high-risk sexual behavior is common and can have a profound effect on HIV transmission. In a model of HIV transmission among men who have sex with men (MSM), changing the frequency, duration and contact rates of high-risk episodes can take endemic prevalence from zero to 50% and more than double transmissions...

journal_title：Epidemics

authors： Alam SJ,Zhang X,Romero-Severson EO,Henry C,Zhong L,Volz EM,Brenner BG,Koopman JS

更新日期：2013-03-01 00:00:00

abstract：INTRODUCTION:Mathematical models that incorporate HIV disease progression dynamics can estimate the potential impact of strategies that delay HIV disease progression and reduce infectiousness for persons not on antiretroviral therapy (ART). Suppressive treatment of HIV-positive persons co-infected with herpes simplex v...

journal_title：Epidemics

authors： Ross JM,Ying R,Celum CL,Baeten JM,Thomas KK,Murnane PM,van Rooyen H,Hughes JP,Barnabas RV

更新日期：2018-06-01 00:00:00

abstract：:The sociological and biological factors which gave rise to the three pandemic waves of Spanish influenza in England during 1918-19 are still poorly understood. Symptom reporting data available for a limited set of locations in England indicates that reinfection in multiple waves occurred, suggesting a role for loss of...

journal_title：Epidemics

authors： Bolton KJ,McCaw JM,McVernon J,Mathews JD

更新日期：2014-09-01 00:00:00

abstract：:The classical antigen presentation pathway consists of two monomorphic (proteasome and TAP) and one polymorphic components (MHC Class I). Viruses can escape CTL responses by mutating an epitope so that it is no longer correctly processed by the pathway. Whereas escape mutations that affect MHC binding are typically no...

journal_title：Epidemics

authors： Schmid BV,Kęsmir C,de Boer RJ

更新日期：2010-09-01 00:00:00

abstract：:Detailed results on the dynamics of cowpox virus infection in four natural populations of the field vole, Microtus agrestis, are presented. Populations were sampled every 4 weeks (8 weeks in mid-winter) for 6 years. The purpose was to examine the relationships between overall or susceptible host abundance (N, S) and b...

journal_title：Epidemics

authors： Begon M,Telfer S,Burthe S,Lambin X,Smith MJ,Paterson S

更新日期：2009-03-01 00:00:00

abstract：:In late April 2009 the emergence of 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1pdm) virus was detected in humans. From its detection through July 18th, 2009, confirmed cases of H1N1pdm in the Americas were periodically reported to the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) by member states. Because the Americas span much of the ...

journal_title：Epidemics

authors： Lessler J,Dos Santos T,Aguilera X,Brookmeyer R,PAHO Influenza Technical Working Group.,Cummings DAT

更新日期：2010-09-01 00:00:00

abstract：:Inference on disease dynamics is typically performed using case reporting time series of symptomatic disease. The inferred dynamics will vary depending on the reporting patterns and surveillance system for the disease in question, and the inference will miss mild or underreported epidemics. To eliminate the variation ...

journal_title：Epidemics

authors： Vinh DN,Boni MF

更新日期：2015-09-01 00:00:00

abstract：:To reach the WHO goal of hepatitis C elimination, it is essential to identify the number of people unaware of their hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection and to investigate the effect of interventions on the disease transmission dynamics. In many high-income countries, one of the primary routes of HCV transmission is via ...

journal_title：Epidemics

authors： Stocks T,Martin LJ,Kühlmann-Berenzon S,Britton T

更新日期：2019-12-11 00:00:00

abstract：BACKGROUND:Brazil has the second highest annual number of new leprosy cases. The aim of this study is to formally compare predictions of future new case detection rate (NCDR) trends and the annual probability of NCDR falling below 10/100,000 of four different modelling approaches in four states of Brazil: Rio Grande do...

journal_title：Epidemics

authors： Blok DJ,Crump RE,Sundaresh R,Ndeffo-Mbah M,Galvani AP,Porco TC,de Vlas SJ,Medley GF,Richardus JH

更新日期：2017-03-01 00:00:00

abstract：:Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, many countries have implemented a complete lockdown of their population that may not be sustainable for long. To identify the best strategy to replace this full lockdown, sophisticated models that rely on mobility data have been developed. In this study, using the example of France as a c...

journal_title：Epidemics

authors： Roche B,Garchitorena A,Roiz D

更新日期：2020-12-01 00:00:00

abstract：:Fitting complex models to epidemiological data is a challenging problem: methodologies can be inaccessible to all but specialists, there may be challenges in adequately describing uncertainty in model fitting, the complex models may take a long time to run, and it can be difficult to fully capture the heterogeneity in...

journal_title：Epidemics

authors： Irvine MA,Hollingsworth TD

更新日期：2018-12-01 00:00:00

abstract：OBJECTIVES:There has been a growing concern over Zika virus (ZIKV) infection, particularly since a probable link between ZIKV infection during pregnancy and microcephaly in the baby was identified. The present study aimed to estimate a theoretical risk of microcephaly during pregnancy with ZIKV infection in Northeaster...

journal_title：Epidemics

authors： Nishiura H,Mizumoto K,Rock KS,Yasuda Y,Kinoshita R,Miyamatsu Y

更新日期：2016-06-01 00:00:00

abstract：:Syndromic and virological data are routinely collected by many countries and are often the only information available in real time. The analysis of surveillance data poses many statistical challenges that have not yet been addressed. For instance, the fraction of cases that seek healthcare and are thus detected is oft...

journal_title：Epidemics

authors： Dorigatti I,Cauchemez S,Pugliese A,Ferguson NM

更新日期：2012-03-01 00:00:00