Abstract：
:Dengue dynamics are shaped by the complex interplay between several factors, including vector seasonality, interaction between four virus serotypes, and inapparent infections. However, paucity or quality of data do not allow for all of these to be taken into account in mathematical models. In order to explore separately the importance of these factors in models, we combined surveillance data with a local-scale cluster study in the rural province of Kampong Cham (Cambodia), in which serotypes and asymptomatic infections were documented. We formulate several mechanistic models, each one relying on a different set of hypotheses, such as explicit vector dynamics, transmission via asymptomatic infections and coexistence of several virus serotypes. Models are confronted with the observed time series using Bayesian inference, through Markov chain Monte Carlo. Model selection is then performed using statistical information criteria, and the coherence of epidemiological characteristics (reproduction numbers, incidence proportion, dynamics of the susceptible classes) is assessed in each model. Our analyses on transmission dynamics in a rural endemic setting highlight that two-strain models with interacting effects better reproduce the long term data, but they are difficult to parameterize when relying on incidence cases only. On the other hand, considering the available data, incorporating vector and asymptomatic components seems of limited added-value when seasonality and underreporting are already accounted for.
journal_name
Epidemicsjournal_title
Epidemicsauthors
Champagne C,Paul R,Ly S,Duong V,Leang R,Cazelles Bdoi
10.1016/j.epidem.2018.08.004subject
Has Abstractpub_date
2019-03-01 00:00:00pages
43-57eissn
1755-4365issn
1878-0067pii
S1755-4365(17)30170-6journal_volume
26pub_type
杂志文章相关文献
Epidemics文献大全abstract：:Healthcare-associated infections cause significant patient morbidity and mortality, and contribute to growing healthcare costs, whose effects may be felt most strongly in developing countries. Active surveillance systems, hospital staff compliance, including hand hygiene, and a rational use of antimicrobials are among...
journal_title：Epidemics
pub_type： 杂志文章,多中心研究
doi：10.1016/j.epidem.2018.11.001
更新日期：2019-03-01 00:00:00
abstract：:Human infection with Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) is driven by recurring dromedary-to-human spill-over events, leading decision-makers to consider dromedary vaccination. Dromedary vaccine candidates in the development pipeline are showing hopeful results, but gaps in our understanding of the...
journal_title：Epidemics
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1016/j.epidem.2019.100350
更新日期：2019-12-01 00:00:00
abstract：:Rapidly evolving pathogens present a major conceptual and mathematical challenge to our understanding of disease dynamics. For these pathogens, the simulation of disease dynamics requires the use of computational models that incorporate pathogen evolution. Currently, these models are limited by two factors. First, the...
journal_title：Epidemics
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1016/j.epidem.2009.05.003
更新日期：2009-06-01 00:00:00
abstract：:Previous exposure to influenza viruses confers cross-immunity against future infections with related strains. However, this is not always accounted for explicitly in mathematical models used for forecasting during influenza outbreaks. We show that, if an influenza outbreak is due to a strain that is similar to one tha...
journal_title：Epidemics
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1016/j.epidem.2020.100432
更新日期：2020-12-17 00:00:00
abstract：:Producing timely, well-informed and reliable forecasts for an ongoing epidemic of an emerging infectious disease is a huge challenge. Epidemiologists and policy makers have to deal with poor data quality, limited understanding of the disease dynamics, rapidly changing social environment and the uncertainty on effects ...
journal_title：Epidemics
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1016/j.epidem.2017.02.010
更新日期：2018-03-01 00:00:00
abstract：:Mathematical models of disease transmission are used to improve our understanding of patterns of infection and to identify factors influencing them. During recent public and animal health crises, such as pandemic influenza, Ebola, Zika, foot-and-mouth disease, models have made important contributions in addressing pol...
journal_title：Epidemics
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1016/j.epidem.2017.12.003
更新日期：2018-06-01 00:00:00
abstract：INTRODUCTION:Mathematical models that incorporate HIV disease progression dynamics can estimate the potential impact of strategies that delay HIV disease progression and reduce infectiousness for persons not on antiretroviral therapy (ART). Suppressive treatment of HIV-positive persons co-infected with herpes simplex v...
journal_title：Epidemics
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1016/j.epidem.2017.12.001
更新日期：2018-06-01 00:00:00
abstract：:Incidence of whooping cough exhibits variable dynamics across time and space. The periodicity of this disease varies from annual to five years in different geographic regions in both developing and developed countries. Many hypotheses have been put forward to explain this variability such as nonlinearity and seasonali...
journal_title：Epidemics
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1016/j.epidem.2017.12.005
更新日期：2018-06-01 00:00:00
abstract：BACKGROUND:From 2007 to 2009, the Netherlands experienced a major Q fever epidemic. Long-term serological follow-up of acute Q fever patients enabled the investigation of longitudinal antibody responses and estimating the onset of the seroresponse in individual patients. METHODS:All available IgG and IgM phase I and I...
journal_title：Epidemics
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1016/j.epidem.2015.07.001
更新日期：2015-12-01 00:00:00
abstract：:Real-time forecasts of infectious diseases can help public health planning, especially during outbreaks. If forecasts are generated from mechanistic models, they can be further used to target resources or to compare the impact of possible interventions. However, paremeterising such models is often difficult in real ti...
journal_title：Epidemics
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1016/j.epidem.2016.11.003
更新日期：2018-03-01 00:00:00
abstract：:Many diseases exhibit subcritical transmission (i.e. 0 journal_title：Epidemics pub_type： 杂志文章 doi：10.1016/j.epidem.2013.05.002 更新日期：2013-09-01 00:00:00
abstract：:Syndromic and virological data are routinely collected by many countries and are often the only information available in real time. The analysis of surveillance data poses many statistical challenges that have not yet been addressed. For instance, the fraction of cases that seek healthcare and are thus detected is oft...
journal_title：Epidemics
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1016/j.epidem.2011.11.001
更新日期：2012-03-01 00:00:00
abstract：:The sociological and biological factors which gave rise to the three pandemic waves of Spanish influenza in England during 1918-19 are still poorly understood. Symptom reporting data available for a limited set of locations in England indicates that reinfection in multiple waves occurred, suggesting a role for loss of...
journal_title：Epidemics
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1016/j.epidem.2014.07.004
更新日期：2014-09-01 00:00:00
abstract：:Influenza infection natural history is often described as a progression through four successive stages: Susceptible-Exposed/Latent-Infectious-Removed (SEIR). The duration of each stage determines the average generation time, the time between infection of a case and infection of his/her infector. Recently, several auth...
journal_title：Epidemics
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1016/j.epidem.2012.06.001
更新日期：2012-08-01 00:00:00
abstract：:The classical antigen presentation pathway consists of two monomorphic (proteasome and TAP) and one polymorphic components (MHC Class I). Viruses can escape CTL responses by mutating an epitope so that it is no longer correctly processed by the pathway. Whereas escape mutations that affect MHC binding are typically no...
journal_title：Epidemics
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1016/j.epidem.2010.05.003
更新日期：2010-09-01 00:00:00
abstract：:Fitting complex models to epidemiological data is a challenging problem: methodologies can be inaccessible to all but specialists, there may be challenges in adequately describing uncertainty in model fitting, the complex models may take a long time to run, and it can be difficult to fully capture the heterogeneity in...
journal_title：Epidemics
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1016/j.epidem.2018.05.009
更新日期：2018-12-01 00:00:00
abstract：:Public health-related decision-making on policies aimed at controlling epidemics is increasingly evidence-based, exploiting multiple sources of data. Policy makers rely on complex models that are required to be robust, realistically approximating epidemics and consistent with all relevant data. Meeting these requireme...
journal_title：Epidemics
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1016/j.epidem.2014.09.004
更新日期：2015-03-01 00:00:00
abstract：:The susceptibility of the English and Welsh fish farming and fisheries industry to emergent diseases is assessed using a stochastic simulation model. The model dynamics operate on a network comprising directed transport and river contacts, as well as undirected local and fomite transmissions. The directed connections ...
journal_title：Epidemics
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1016/j.epidem.2010.08.001
更新日期：2010-12-01 00:00:00
abstract：:Using Medicare claims data on prescriptions of oseltamivir dispensed to people 65 years old and older, we present a descriptive analysis of patterns of influenza activity in the United States for 579 core-based statistical areas (CBSAs) from the 2010-2011 through the 2015-2016 influenza seasons. During this time, 1,01...
journal_title：Epidemics
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1016/j.epidem.2018.08.002
更新日期：2019-03-01 00:00:00
abstract：BACKGROUND:Pathogenic bacteria are often asymptomatically carried in the nasopharynx. Bacterial carriage can be reduced by vaccination and has been used as an alternative endpoint to clinical disease in randomised controlled trials (RCTs). Vaccine efficacy (VE) is usually calculated as 1 minus a measure of effect. Esti...
journal_title：Epidemics
pub_type： 杂志文章,随机对照试验
doi：10.1016/j.epidem.2014.08.003
更新日期：2014-12-01 00:00:00
abstract：:To reach the WHO goal of hepatitis C elimination, it is essential to identify the number of people unaware of their hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection and to investigate the effect of interventions on the disease transmission dynamics. In many high-income countries, one of the primary routes of HCV transmission is via ...
journal_title：Epidemics
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1016/j.epidem.2019.100378
更新日期：2019-12-11 00:00:00
abstract：OBJECTIVES:There has been a growing concern over Zika virus (ZIKV) infection, particularly since a probable link between ZIKV infection during pregnancy and microcephaly in the baby was identified. The present study aimed to estimate a theoretical risk of microcephaly during pregnancy with ZIKV infection in Northeaster...
journal_title：Epidemics
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1016/j.epidem.2016.03.001
更新日期：2016-06-01 00:00:00
abstract：:In late April 2009 the emergence of 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1pdm) virus was detected in humans. From its detection through July 18th, 2009, confirmed cases of H1N1pdm in the Americas were periodically reported to the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) by member states. Because the Americas span much of the ...
journal_title：Epidemics
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1016/j.epidem.2010.07.001
更新日期：2010-09-01 00:00:00
abstract：:Many pathogens of conservation concern circulate endemically within natural wildlife reservoir hosts and it is imperative to understand the individual and ecological drivers of natural transmission dynamics, if any threat to a related endangered species is to be assessed. Our study highlights the key drivers of infect...
journal_title：Epidemics
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1016/j.epidem.2019.100352
更新日期：2019-09-01 00:00:00
abstract：:Detailed results on the dynamics of cowpox virus infection in four natural populations of the field vole, Microtus agrestis, are presented. Populations were sampled every 4 weeks (8 weeks in mid-winter) for 6 years. The purpose was to examine the relationships between overall or susceptible host abundance (N, S) and b...
journal_title：Epidemics
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1016/j.epidem.2008.10.001
更新日期：2009-03-01 00:00:00
abstract：:The effectiveness of vaccinating males against the human papillomavirus (HPV) remains a controversial subject. Many existing studies conclude that increasing female coverage is more effective than diverting resources into male vaccination. Recently, several empirical studies on HPV immunization have been published, pr...
journal_title：Epidemics
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1016/j.epidem.2015.01.003
更新日期：2015-06-01 00:00:00
abstract：:Inference on disease dynamics is typically performed using case reporting time series of symptomatic disease. The inferred dynamics will vary depending on the reporting patterns and surveillance system for the disease in question, and the inference will miss mild or underreported epidemics. To eliminate the variation ...
journal_title：Epidemics
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1016/j.epidem.2015.02.005
更新日期：2015-09-01 00:00:00
abstract：:Mathematical modeling of disease transmission has provided quantitative predictions for health policy, facilitating the evaluation of epidemiological outcomes and the cost-effectiveness of interventions. However, typical sensitivity analyses of deterministic dynamic infectious disease models focus on model architectur...
journal_title：Epidemics
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1016/j.epidem.2013.11.002
更新日期：2014-03-01 00:00:00
abstract：:Episodic high-risk sexual behavior is common and can have a profound effect on HIV transmission. In a model of HIV transmission among men who have sex with men (MSM), changing the frequency, duration and contact rates of high-risk episodes can take endemic prevalence from zero to 50% and more than double transmissions...
journal_title：Epidemics
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1016/j.epidem.2012.11.003
更新日期：2013-03-01 00:00:00
abstract：:Computer models have proven to be useful tools in studying epidemic disease in human populations. Such models are being used by a broader base of researchers, and it has become more important to ensure that descriptions of model construction and data analyses are clear and communicate important features of model struc...
journal_title：Epidemics
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1016/j.epidem.2016.12.001
更新日期：2017-06-01 00:00:00
