Nine challenges in modelling the emergence of novel pathogens.

abstract：:Fitting complex models to epidemiological data is a challenging problem: methodologies can be inaccessible to all but specialists, there may be challenges in adequately describing uncertainty in model fitting, the complex models may take a long time to run, and it can be difficult to fully capture the heterogeneity in...

journal_title：Epidemics

authors： Irvine MA,Hollingsworth TD

更新日期：2018-12-01 00:00:00

abstract：:Many pathogens of conservation concern circulate endemically within natural wildlife reservoir hosts and it is imperative to understand the individual and ecological drivers of natural transmission dynamics, if any threat to a related endangered species is to be assessed. Our study highlights the key drivers of infect...

journal_title：Epidemics

authors： Chantrey J,Dale T,Jones D,Begon M,Fenton A

更新日期：2019-09-01 00:00:00

abstract：:Disease models which take explicit account of heterogeneities in the risk of infection offer significant advantages over models in which the risk of infection is assumed to be uniform across all hosts. However, estimating the incidence rate (force of infection) in the different at-risk (exposure) groups is no easy mat...

journal_title：Epidemics

authors： Smith G

更新日期：2013-06-01 00:00:00

abstract：:Many diseases exhibit subcritical transmission (i.e. 0

journal_title：Epidemics

authors： Blumberg S,Lloyd-Smith JO

更新日期：2013-09-01 00:00:00

abstract：:Disease is a major constraint on animal production and welfare in agriculture and aquaculture. Movement of animals between farms is one of the most significant routes of disease transmission and is particularly hard to control for pathogens with subclinical infection. Renibacterium salmoninarum causes bacterial kidney...

journal_title：Epidemics

authors： Murray AG,Hall M,Munro LA,Wallace IS

更新日期：2011-09-01 00:00:00

abstract：:A stochastic, spatial, discrete-time, SEIR model of avian influenza epidemics among poultry farms in Pennsylvania is formulated. Using three different spatial scales wherein all the birds within a single farm, ZIP code, or county are clustered into a single point, we obtain three different views of the epidemics. For ...

journal_title：Epidemics

authors： Rorres C,Pelletier ST,Smith G

更新日期：2011-06-01 00:00:00

abstract：BACKGROUND:Pathogenic bacteria are often asymptomatically carried in the nasopharynx. Bacterial carriage can be reduced by vaccination and has been used as an alternative endpoint to clinical disease in randomised controlled trials (RCTs). Vaccine efficacy (VE) is usually calculated as 1 minus a measure of effect. Esti...

journal_title：Epidemics

authors： Scott P,Herzog SA,Auranen K,Dagan R,Low N,Egger M,Heijne JC

更新日期：2014-12-01 00:00:00

abstract：INTRODUCTION:Mathematical models that incorporate HIV disease progression dynamics can estimate the potential impact of strategies that delay HIV disease progression and reduce infectiousness for persons not on antiretroviral therapy (ART). Suppressive treatment of HIV-positive persons co-infected with herpes simplex v...

journal_title：Epidemics

authors： Ross JM,Ying R,Celum CL,Baeten JM,Thomas KK,Murnane PM,van Rooyen H,Hughes JP,Barnabas RV

更新日期：2018-06-01 00:00:00

abstract：:The sociological and biological factors which gave rise to the three pandemic waves of Spanish influenza in England during 1918-19 are still poorly understood. Symptom reporting data available for a limited set of locations in England indicates that reinfection in multiple waves occurred, suggesting a role for loss of...

journal_title：Epidemics

authors： Bolton KJ,McCaw JM,McVernon J,Mathews JD

更新日期：2014-09-01 00:00:00

abstract：:Public health-related decision-making on policies aimed at controlling epidemics is increasingly evidence-based, exploiting multiple sources of data. Policy makers rely on complex models that are required to be robust, realistically approximating epidemics and consistent with all relevant data. Meeting these requireme...

journal_title：Epidemics

authors： De Angelis D,Presanis AM,Birrell PJ,Tomba GS,House T

更新日期：2015-03-01 00:00:00

abstract：:Coexistence of multiple tick-borne pathogens or strains is common in natural hosts and can be facilitated by resource partitioning of the host species, within-host localization, or by different transmission pathways. Most vector-borne pathogens are transmitted horizontally via systemic host infection, but transmission...

journal_title：Epidemics

authors： States SL,Huang CI,Davis S,Tufts DM,Diuk-Wasser MA

更新日期：2017-06-01 00:00:00

abstract：:Seasonal influenza is a worldwide public health concern. Forecasting its dynamics can improve the management of public health regulations, resources and infrastructure, and eventually reduce mortality and the costs induced by influenza-related absenteism. In Belgium, a network of Sentinel General Practitioners (SGPs) ...

journal_title：Epidemics

authors： Miranda GHB,Baetens JM,Bossuyt N,Bruno OM,De Baets B

更新日期：2019-09-01 00:00:00

abstract：:Dengue dynamics are shaped by the complex interplay between several factors, including vector seasonality, interaction between four virus serotypes, and inapparent infections. However, paucity or quality of data do not allow for all of these to be taken into account in mathematical models. In order to explore separate...

journal_title：Epidemics

authors： Champagne C,Paul R,Ly S,Duong V,Leang R,Cazelles B

更新日期：2019-03-01 00:00:00

abstract：:Mathematical modeling of disease transmission has provided quantitative predictions for health policy, facilitating the evaluation of epidemiological outcomes and the cost-effectiveness of interventions. However, typical sensitivity analyses of deterministic dynamic infectious disease models focus on model architectur...

journal_title：Epidemics

authors： Gilbert JA,Meyers LA,Galvani AP,Townsend JP

更新日期：2014-03-01 00:00:00

abstract：:Following transmission, HIV-1 adapts in the new host by acquiring mutations that allow it to escape from the host immune response at multiple epitopes. It also reverts mutations associated with epitopes targeted in the transmitting host but not in the new host. Moreover, escape mutations are often associated with addi...

journal_title：Epidemics

authors： Nagaraja P,Alexander HK,Bonhoeffer S,Dixit NM

更新日期：2016-03-01 00:00:00

abstract：OBJECTIVE:Previous HPV models have only included genital transmission, when evidence suggests that transmission between several anatomical sites occurs. We compared model predictions of population-level HPV vaccination effectiveness against genital HPV16 infection in women, using a 1) uni-site (genital site), and a 2) ...

journal_title：Epidemics

authors： Lemieux-Mellouki P,Drolet M,Jit M,Gingras G,Brisson M

更新日期：2017-12-01 00:00:00

abstract：:Inference on disease dynamics is typically performed using case reporting time series of symptomatic disease. The inferred dynamics will vary depending on the reporting patterns and surveillance system for the disease in question, and the inference will miss mild or underreported epidemics. To eliminate the variation ...

journal_title：Epidemics

authors： Vinh DN,Boni MF

更新日期：2015-09-01 00:00:00

abstract：:Using Medicare claims data on prescriptions of oseltamivir dispensed to people 65 years old and older, we present a descriptive analysis of patterns of influenza activity in the United States for 579 core-based statistical areas (CBSAs) from the 2010-2011 through the 2015-2016 influenza seasons. During this time, 1,01...

journal_title：Epidemics

authors： Dahlgren FS,Shay DK,Izurieta HS,Forshee RA,Wernecke M,Chillarige Y,Lu Y,Kelman JA,Reed C

更新日期：2019-03-01 00:00:00

abstract：:Computer models have proven to be useful tools in studying epidemic disease in human populations. Such models are being used by a broader base of researchers, and it has become more important to ensure that descriptions of model construction and data analyses are clear and communicate important features of model struc...

journal_title：Epidemics

authors： Orbann C,Sattenspiel L,Miller E,Dimka J

更新日期：2017-06-01 00:00:00

abstract：:Syndromic and virological data are routinely collected by many countries and are often the only information available in real time. The analysis of surveillance data poses many statistical challenges that have not yet been addressed. For instance, the fraction of cases that seek healthcare and are thus detected is oft...

journal_title：Epidemics

authors： Dorigatti I,Cauchemez S,Pugliese A,Ferguson NM

更新日期：2012-03-01 00:00:00

abstract：:Although empirical studies show that protection against influenza infection in humans is closely related to antibody titres, influenza epidemics are often described under the assumption that individuals are either susceptible or not. Here we develop a model in which antibody titre classes are enumerated explicitly and...

journal_title：Epidemics

authors： Yuan HY,Baguelin M,Kwok KO,Arinaminpathy N,van Leeuwen E,Riley S

更新日期：2017-09-01 00:00:00

abstract：:Real-time forecasts of infectious diseases can help public health planning, especially during outbreaks. If forecasts are generated from mechanistic models, they can be further used to target resources or to compare the impact of possible interventions. However, paremeterising such models is often difficult in real ti...

journal_title：Epidemics

authors： Funk S,Camacho A,Kucharski AJ,Eggo RM,Edmunds WJ

更新日期：2018-03-01 00:00:00

abstract：:Detailed results on the dynamics of cowpox virus infection in four natural populations of the field vole, Microtus agrestis, are presented. Populations were sampled every 4 weeks (8 weeks in mid-winter) for 6 years. The purpose was to examine the relationships between overall or susceptible host abundance (N, S) and b...

journal_title：Epidemics

authors： Begon M,Telfer S,Burthe S,Lambin X,Smith MJ,Paterson S

更新日期：2009-03-01 00:00:00

abstract：:For infections that are typically asymptomatic, targeted surveillance systems (whereby individuals at increased risk are tested more frequently) will detect infections earlier on average than systems with random testing or in systems where all individuals are tested at the same intervals. However, estimating temporal ...

journal_title：Epidemics

authors： Blake IM,Donnelly CA

更新日期：2012-12-01 00:00:00

abstract：:Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, many countries have implemented a complete lockdown of their population that may not be sustainable for long. To identify the best strategy to replace this full lockdown, sophisticated models that rely on mobility data have been developed. In this study, using the example of France as a c...

journal_title：Epidemics

authors： Roche B,Garchitorena A,Roiz D

更新日期：2020-12-01 00:00:00

abstract：:The classical antigen presentation pathway consists of two monomorphic (proteasome and TAP) and one polymorphic components (MHC Class I). Viruses can escape CTL responses by mutating an epitope so that it is no longer correctly processed by the pathway. Whereas escape mutations that affect MHC binding are typically no...

journal_title：Epidemics

authors： Schmid BV,Kęsmir C,de Boer RJ

更新日期：2010-09-01 00:00:00

abstract：:The effectiveness of vaccinating males against the human papillomavirus (HPV) remains a controversial subject. Many existing studies conclude that increasing female coverage is more effective than diverting resources into male vaccination. Recently, several empirical studies on HPV immunization have been published, pr...

journal_title：Epidemics

authors： Ryser MD,McGoff K,Herzog DP,Sivakoff DJ,Myers ER

更新日期：2015-06-01 00:00:00

abstract：:The past two decades have seen major outbreaks of influenza viruses and flaviviruses that are spread at least in part by migratory birds. Although much new information has accumulated on the natural history of the viruses, and on the geography of migration by individual bird species, no synthesis has been achieved reg...

journal_title：Epidemics

authors： Peterson AT,Andersen MJ,Bodbyl-Roels S,Hosner P,Nyári A,Oliveros C,Papeş M

更新日期：2009-12-01 00:00:00

abstract：:Producing timely, well-informed and reliable forecasts for an ongoing epidemic of an emerging infectious disease is a huge challenge. Epidemiologists and policy makers have to deal with poor data quality, limited understanding of the disease dynamics, rapidly changing social environment and the uncertainty on effects ...

journal_title：Epidemics

authors： Venkatramanan S,Lewis B,Chen J,Higdon D,Vullikanti A,Marathe M

更新日期：2018-03-01 00:00:00

abstract：:The existence of primary pneumonic plague outbreaks raises concerns over the use of the causative bacteria as an aerosol-based bioweapon. We employed an individual-based model, parameterised using published personal contact information, to assess the severity of a deliberate release in a discrete community, under the ...

journal_title：Epidemics

authors： Williams AD,Hall IM,Rubin GJ,Amlôt R,Leach S

更新日期：2011-06-01 00:00:00