An individual-based simulation of pneumonic plague transmission following an outbreak and the significance of intervention compliance.

abstract：:Detailed results on the dynamics of cowpox virus infection in four natural populations of the field vole, Microtus agrestis, are presented. Populations were sampled every 4 weeks (8 weeks in mid-winter) for 6 years. The purpose was to examine the relationships between overall or susceptible host abundance (N, S) and b...

journal_title：Epidemics

authors： Begon M,Telfer S,Burthe S,Lambin X,Smith MJ,Paterson S

更新日期：2009-03-01 00:00:00

abstract：:Previous exposure to influenza viruses confers cross-immunity against future infections with related strains. However, this is not always accounted for explicitly in mathematical models used for forecasting during influenza outbreaks. We show that, if an influenza outbreak is due to a strain that is similar to one tha...

journal_title：Epidemics

authors： Sachak-Patwa R,Byrne HM,Thompson RN

更新日期：2020-12-17 00:00:00

abstract：:Healthcare-associated infections cause significant patient morbidity and mortality, and contribute to growing healthcare costs, whose effects may be felt most strongly in developing countries. Active surveillance systems, hospital staff compliance, including hand hygiene, and a rational use of antimicrobials are among...

journal_title：Epidemics

authors： Vilches TN,Bonesso MF,Guerra HM,Fortaleza CMCB,Park AW,Ferreira CP

更新日期：2019-03-01 00:00:00

abstract：:In late April 2009 the emergence of 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1pdm) virus was detected in humans. From its detection through July 18th, 2009, confirmed cases of H1N1pdm in the Americas were periodically reported to the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) by member states. Because the Americas span much of the ...

journal_title：Epidemics

authors： Lessler J,Dos Santos T,Aguilera X,Brookmeyer R,PAHO Influenza Technical Working Group.,Cummings DAT

更新日期：2010-09-01 00:00:00

abstract：:Although empirical studies show that protection against influenza infection in humans is closely related to antibody titres, influenza epidemics are often described under the assumption that individuals are either susceptible or not. Here we develop a model in which antibody titre classes are enumerated explicitly and...

journal_title：Epidemics

authors： Yuan HY,Baguelin M,Kwok KO,Arinaminpathy N,van Leeuwen E,Riley S

更新日期：2017-09-01 00:00:00

abstract：:Incidence of whooping cough exhibits variable dynamics across time and space. The periodicity of this disease varies from annual to five years in different geographic regions in both developing and developed countries. Many hypotheses have been put forward to explain this variability such as nonlinearity and seasonali...

journal_title：Epidemics

authors： Bhattacharyya S,Ferrari MJ,Bjørnstad ON

更新日期：2018-06-01 00:00:00

abstract：:Following transmission, HIV-1 adapts in the new host by acquiring mutations that allow it to escape from the host immune response at multiple epitopes. It also reverts mutations associated with epitopes targeted in the transmitting host but not in the new host. Moreover, escape mutations are often associated with addi...

journal_title：Epidemics

authors： Nagaraja P,Alexander HK,Bonhoeffer S,Dixit NM

更新日期：2016-03-01 00:00:00

abstract：:Coexistence of multiple tick-borne pathogens or strains is common in natural hosts and can be facilitated by resource partitioning of the host species, within-host localization, or by different transmission pathways. Most vector-borne pathogens are transmitted horizontally via systemic host infection, but transmission...

journal_title：Epidemics

authors： States SL,Huang CI,Davis S,Tufts DM,Diuk-Wasser MA

更新日期：2017-06-01 00:00:00

abstract：:Many diseases exhibit subcritical transmission (i.e. 0

journal_title：Epidemics

authors： Blumberg S,Lloyd-Smith JO

更新日期：2013-09-01 00:00:00

abstract：:The susceptibility of the English and Welsh fish farming and fisheries industry to emergent diseases is assessed using a stochastic simulation model. The model dynamics operate on a network comprising directed transport and river contacts, as well as undirected local and fomite transmissions. The directed connections ...

journal_title：Epidemics

authors： Jonkers AR,Sharkey KJ,Thrush MA,Turnbull JF,Morgan KL

更新日期：2010-12-01 00:00:00

abstract：:Dengue is one of the most important and wide-spread viral infections affecting human populations. The last few decades have seen a dramatic increase in the global burden of dengue, with the virus now being endemic or near-endemic in over 100 countries world-wide. A recombinant tetravalent vaccine candidate (CYD-TDV) h...

journal_title：Epidemics

authors： Lourenço J,Recker M

更新日期：2016-09-01 00:00:00

abstract：:Many pathogens of conservation concern circulate endemically within natural wildlife reservoir hosts and it is imperative to understand the individual and ecological drivers of natural transmission dynamics, if any threat to a related endangered species is to be assessed. Our study highlights the key drivers of infect...

journal_title：Epidemics

authors： Chantrey J,Dale T,Jones D,Begon M,Fenton A

更新日期：2019-09-01 00:00:00

abstract：:Influenza infection natural history is often described as a progression through four successive stages: Susceptible-Exposed/Latent-Infectious-Removed (SEIR). The duration of each stage determines the average generation time, the time between infection of a case and infection of his/her infector. Recently, several auth...

journal_title：Epidemics

authors： Cori A,Valleron AJ,Carrat F,Scalia Tomba G,Thomas G,Boëlle PY

更新日期：2012-08-01 00:00:00

abstract：:Producing timely, well-informed and reliable forecasts for an ongoing epidemic of an emerging infectious disease is a huge challenge. Epidemiologists and policy makers have to deal with poor data quality, limited understanding of the disease dynamics, rapidly changing social environment and the uncertainty on effects ...

journal_title：Epidemics

authors： Venkatramanan S,Lewis B,Chen J,Higdon D,Vullikanti A,Marathe M

更新日期：2018-03-01 00:00:00

abstract：:For infections that are typically asymptomatic, targeted surveillance systems (whereby individuals at increased risk are tested more frequently) will detect infections earlier on average than systems with random testing or in systems where all individuals are tested at the same intervals. However, estimating temporal ...

journal_title：Epidemics

authors： Blake IM,Donnelly CA

更新日期：2012-12-01 00:00:00

abstract：:The classical antigen presentation pathway consists of two monomorphic (proteasome and TAP) and one polymorphic components (MHC Class I). Viruses can escape CTL responses by mutating an epitope so that it is no longer correctly processed by the pathway. Whereas escape mutations that affect MHC binding are typically no...

journal_title：Epidemics

authors： Schmid BV,Kęsmir C,de Boer RJ

更新日期：2010-09-01 00:00:00

abstract：:The past two decades have seen major outbreaks of influenza viruses and flaviviruses that are spread at least in part by migratory birds. Although much new information has accumulated on the natural history of the viruses, and on the geography of migration by individual bird species, no synthesis has been achieved reg...

journal_title：Epidemics

authors： Peterson AT,Andersen MJ,Bodbyl-Roels S,Hosner P,Nyári A,Oliveros C,Papeş M

更新日期：2009-12-01 00:00:00

abstract：:Using Medicare claims data on prescriptions of oseltamivir dispensed to people 65 years old and older, we present a descriptive analysis of patterns of influenza activity in the United States for 579 core-based statistical areas (CBSAs) from the 2010-2011 through the 2015-2016 influenza seasons. During this time, 1,01...

journal_title：Epidemics

authors： Dahlgren FS,Shay DK,Izurieta HS,Forshee RA,Wernecke M,Chillarige Y,Lu Y,Kelman JA,Reed C

更新日期：2019-03-01 00:00:00

abstract：:Studying the emergence of novel infectious agents involves many processes spanning host species, spatial scales, and scientific disciplines. Mathematical models play an essential role in combining insights from these investigations and drawing robust inferences from field and experimental data. We describe nine challe...

journal_title：Epidemics

authors： Lloyd-Smith JO,Funk S,McLean AR,Riley S,Wood JL

更新日期：2015-03-01 00:00:00

abstract：:Seasonal influenza is a worldwide public health concern. Forecasting its dynamics can improve the management of public health regulations, resources and infrastructure, and eventually reduce mortality and the costs induced by influenza-related absenteism. In Belgium, a network of Sentinel General Practitioners (SGPs) ...

journal_title：Epidemics

authors： Miranda GHB,Baetens JM,Bossuyt N,Bruno OM,De Baets B

更新日期：2019-09-01 00:00:00

abstract：:Disease is a major constraint on animal production and welfare in agriculture and aquaculture. Movement of animals between farms is one of the most significant routes of disease transmission and is particularly hard to control for pathogens with subclinical infection. Renibacterium salmoninarum causes bacterial kidney...

journal_title：Epidemics

authors： Murray AG,Hall M,Munro LA,Wallace IS

更新日期：2011-09-01 00:00:00

abstract：BACKGROUND:Brazil has the second highest annual number of new leprosy cases. The aim of this study is to formally compare predictions of future new case detection rate (NCDR) trends and the annual probability of NCDR falling below 10/100,000 of four different modelling approaches in four states of Brazil: Rio Grande do...

journal_title：Epidemics

authors： Blok DJ,Crump RE,Sundaresh R,Ndeffo-Mbah M,Galvani AP,Porco TC,de Vlas SJ,Medley GF,Richardus JH

更新日期：2017-03-01 00:00:00

abstract：:The effectiveness of vaccinating males against the human papillomavirus (HPV) remains a controversial subject. Many existing studies conclude that increasing female coverage is more effective than diverting resources into male vaccination. Recently, several empirical studies on HPV immunization have been published, pr...

journal_title：Epidemics

authors： Ryser MD,McGoff K,Herzog DP,Sivakoff DJ,Myers ER

更新日期：2015-06-01 00:00:00

abstract：:Syndromic and virological data are routinely collected by many countries and are often the only information available in real time. The analysis of surveillance data poses many statistical challenges that have not yet been addressed. For instance, the fraction of cases that seek healthcare and are thus detected is oft...

journal_title：Epidemics

authors： Dorigatti I,Cauchemez S,Pugliese A,Ferguson NM

更新日期：2012-03-01 00:00:00

abstract：:Mathematical models of disease transmission are used to improve our understanding of patterns of infection and to identify factors influencing them. During recent public and animal health crises, such as pandemic influenza, Ebola, Zika, foot-and-mouth disease, models have made important contributions in addressing pol...

journal_title：Epidemics

authors： Muellner U,Fournié G,Muellner P,Ahlstrom C,Pfeiffer DU

更新日期：2018-06-01 00:00:00

abstract：INTRODUCTION:Mathematical models that incorporate HIV disease progression dynamics can estimate the potential impact of strategies that delay HIV disease progression and reduce infectiousness for persons not on antiretroviral therapy (ART). Suppressive treatment of HIV-positive persons co-infected with herpes simplex v...

journal_title：Epidemics

authors： Ross JM,Ying R,Celum CL,Baeten JM,Thomas KK,Murnane PM,van Rooyen H,Hughes JP,Barnabas RV

更新日期：2018-06-01 00:00:00

abstract：:Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, many countries have implemented a complete lockdown of their population that may not be sustainable for long. To identify the best strategy to replace this full lockdown, sophisticated models that rely on mobility data have been developed. In this study, using the example of France as a c...

journal_title：Epidemics

authors： Roche B,Garchitorena A,Roiz D

更新日期：2020-12-01 00:00:00

abstract：:Public health-related decision-making on policies aimed at controlling epidemics is increasingly evidence-based, exploiting multiple sources of data. Policy makers rely on complex models that are required to be robust, realistically approximating epidemics and consistent with all relevant data. Meeting these requireme...

journal_title：Epidemics

authors： De Angelis D,Presanis AM,Birrell PJ,Tomba GS,House T

更新日期：2015-03-01 00:00:00

abstract：:To reach the WHO goal of hepatitis C elimination, it is essential to identify the number of people unaware of their hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection and to investigate the effect of interventions on the disease transmission dynamics. In many high-income countries, one of the primary routes of HCV transmission is via ...

journal_title：Epidemics

authors： Stocks T,Martin LJ,Kühlmann-Berenzon S,Britton T

更新日期：2019-12-11 00:00:00

abstract：:Disease models which take explicit account of heterogeneities in the risk of infection offer significant advantages over models in which the risk of infection is assumed to be uniform across all hosts. However, estimating the incidence rate (force of infection) in the different at-risk (exposure) groups is no easy mat...

journal_title：Epidemics

authors： Smith G

更新日期：2013-06-01 00:00:00