Abstract：
:The susceptibility of the English and Welsh fish farming and fisheries industry to emergent diseases is assessed using a stochastic simulation model. The model dynamics operate on a network comprising directed transport and river contacts, as well as undirected local and fomite transmissions. The directed connections cause outward transmission risk to be geographically more confined than inward risk. We consider reactive, proactive, and hybrid methods of control which correspond to a mixture of policy and the ease of disease detection. An explicit investigation of the impact of laboratory capacity is made. General quantified guidelines are derived to mitigate future epidemics.
journal_name
Epidemicsjournal_title
Epidemicsauthors
Jonkers AR,Sharkey KJ,Thrush MA,Turnbull JF,Morgan KLdoi
10.1016/j.epidem.2010.08.001subject
Has Abstractpub_date
2010-12-01 00:00:00pages
195-206issue
4eissn
1755-4365issn
1878-0067pii
S1755-4365(10)00057-5journal_volume
2pub_type
杂志文章相关文献
Epidemics文献大全abstract：:Dengue dynamics are shaped by the complex interplay between several factors, including vector seasonality, interaction between four virus serotypes, and inapparent infections. However, paucity or quality of data do not allow for all of these to be taken into account in mathematical models. In order to explore separate...
journal_title：Epidemics
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1016/j.epidem.2018.08.004
更新日期：2019-03-01 00:00:00
abstract：:Dengue is one of the most important and wide-spread viral infections affecting human populations. The last few decades have seen a dramatic increase in the global burden of dengue, with the virus now being endemic or near-endemic in over 100 countries world-wide. A recombinant tetravalent vaccine candidate (CYD-TDV) h...
journal_title：Epidemics
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1016/j.epidem.2016.05.003
更新日期：2016-09-01 00:00:00
abstract：:Emerging evidence suggests that HIV incidence rates in Brazil, particularly among men, may be rising. Here we use Brazil's integrated health systems data to develop a mathematical model, reproducing the complex surveillance systems and providing estimates of HIV incidence, number of people living with HIV (PLHIV), rep...
journal_title：Epidemics
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1016/j.epidem.2019.02.002
更新日期：2019-06-01 00:00:00
abstract：:Fitting complex models to epidemiological data is a challenging problem: methodologies can be inaccessible to all but specialists, there may be challenges in adequately describing uncertainty in model fitting, the complex models may take a long time to run, and it can be difficult to fully capture the heterogeneity in...
journal_title：Epidemics
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1016/j.epidem.2018.05.009
更新日期：2018-12-01 00:00:00
abstract：:Seasonal influenza is a worldwide public health concern. Forecasting its dynamics can improve the management of public health regulations, resources and infrastructure, and eventually reduce mortality and the costs induced by influenza-related absenteism. In Belgium, a network of Sentinel General Practitioners (SGPs) ...
journal_title：Epidemics
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1016/j.epidem.2019.04.001
更新日期：2019-09-01 00:00:00
abstract：:Detailed results on the dynamics of cowpox virus infection in four natural populations of the field vole, Microtus agrestis, are presented. Populations were sampled every 4 weeks (8 weeks in mid-winter) for 6 years. The purpose was to examine the relationships between overall or susceptible host abundance (N, S) and b...
journal_title：Epidemics
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1016/j.epidem.2008.10.001
更新日期：2009-03-01 00:00:00
abstract：:Disease is a major constraint on animal production and welfare in agriculture and aquaculture. Movement of animals between farms is one of the most significant routes of disease transmission and is particularly hard to control for pathogens with subclinical infection. Renibacterium salmoninarum causes bacterial kidney...
journal_title：Epidemics
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1016/j.epidem.2011.10.002
更新日期：2011-09-01 00:00:00
abstract：:Many diseases exhibit subcritical transmission (i.e. 0 journal_title：Epidemics pub_type： 杂志文章 doi：10.1016/j.epidem.2013.05.002 更新日期：2013-09-01 00:00:00
abstract：:Coexistence of multiple tick-borne pathogens or strains is common in natural hosts and can be facilitated by resource partitioning of the host species, within-host localization, or by different transmission pathways. Most vector-borne pathogens are transmitted horizontally via systemic host infection, but transmission...
journal_title：Epidemics
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1016/j.epidem.2016.12.002
更新日期：2017-06-01 00:00:00
abstract：INTRODUCTION:Mathematical models that incorporate HIV disease progression dynamics can estimate the potential impact of strategies that delay HIV disease progression and reduce infectiousness for persons not on antiretroviral therapy (ART). Suppressive treatment of HIV-positive persons co-infected with herpes simplex v...
journal_title：Epidemics
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1016/j.epidem.2017.12.001
更新日期：2018-06-01 00:00:00
abstract：:Incidence of whooping cough exhibits variable dynamics across time and space. The periodicity of this disease varies from annual to five years in different geographic regions in both developing and developed countries. Many hypotheses have been put forward to explain this variability such as nonlinearity and seasonali...
journal_title：Epidemics
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1016/j.epidem.2017.12.005
更新日期：2018-06-01 00:00:00
abstract：:Syndromic and virological data are routinely collected by many countries and are often the only information available in real time. The analysis of surveillance data poses many statistical challenges that have not yet been addressed. For instance, the fraction of cases that seek healthcare and are thus detected is oft...
journal_title：Epidemics
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1016/j.epidem.2011.11.001
更新日期：2012-03-01 00:00:00
abstract：OBJECTIVE:Previous HPV models have only included genital transmission, when evidence suggests that transmission between several anatomical sites occurs. We compared model predictions of population-level HPV vaccination effectiveness against genital HPV16 infection in women, using a 1) uni-site (genital site), and a 2) ...
journal_title：Epidemics
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1016/j.epidem.2017.08.001
更新日期：2017-12-01 00:00:00
abstract：BACKGROUND:From 2007 to 2009, the Netherlands experienced a major Q fever epidemic. Long-term serological follow-up of acute Q fever patients enabled the investigation of longitudinal antibody responses and estimating the onset of the seroresponse in individual patients. METHODS:All available IgG and IgM phase I and I...
journal_title：Epidemics
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1016/j.epidem.2015.07.001
更新日期：2015-12-01 00:00:00
abstract：:Mathematical models of disease transmission are used to improve our understanding of patterns of infection and to identify factors influencing them. During recent public and animal health crises, such as pandemic influenza, Ebola, Zika, foot-and-mouth disease, models have made important contributions in addressing pol...
journal_title：Epidemics
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1016/j.epidem.2017.12.003
更新日期：2018-06-01 00:00:00
abstract：:The classical antigen presentation pathway consists of two monomorphic (proteasome and TAP) and one polymorphic components (MHC Class I). Viruses can escape CTL responses by mutating an epitope so that it is no longer correctly processed by the pathway. Whereas escape mutations that affect MHC binding are typically no...
journal_title：Epidemics
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1016/j.epidem.2010.05.003
更新日期：2010-09-01 00:00:00
abstract：:The past two decades have seen major outbreaks of influenza viruses and flaviviruses that are spread at least in part by migratory birds. Although much new information has accumulated on the natural history of the viruses, and on the geography of migration by individual bird species, no synthesis has been achieved reg...
journal_title：Epidemics
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1016/j.epidem.2009.11.003
更新日期：2009-12-01 00:00:00
abstract：:Human infection with Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) is driven by recurring dromedary-to-human spill-over events, leading decision-makers to consider dromedary vaccination. Dromedary vaccine candidates in the development pipeline are showing hopeful results, but gaps in our understanding of the...
journal_title：Epidemics
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1016/j.epidem.2019.100350
更新日期：2019-12-01 00:00:00
abstract：:Using Medicare claims data on prescriptions of oseltamivir dispensed to people 65 years old and older, we present a descriptive analysis of patterns of influenza activity in the United States for 579 core-based statistical areas (CBSAs) from the 2010-2011 through the 2015-2016 influenza seasons. During this time, 1,01...
journal_title：Epidemics
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1016/j.epidem.2018.08.002
更新日期：2019-03-01 00:00:00
abstract：:The effectiveness of vaccinating males against the human papillomavirus (HPV) remains a controversial subject. Many existing studies conclude that increasing female coverage is more effective than diverting resources into male vaccination. Recently, several empirical studies on HPV immunization have been published, pr...
journal_title：Epidemics
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1016/j.epidem.2015.01.003
更新日期：2015-06-01 00:00:00
abstract：:Public health-related decision-making on policies aimed at controlling epidemics is increasingly evidence-based, exploiting multiple sources of data. Policy makers rely on complex models that are required to be robust, realistically approximating epidemics and consistent with all relevant data. Meeting these requireme...
journal_title：Epidemics
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1016/j.epidem.2014.09.004
更新日期：2015-03-01 00:00:00
abstract：:Episodic high-risk sexual behavior is common and can have a profound effect on HIV transmission. In a model of HIV transmission among men who have sex with men (MSM), changing the frequency, duration and contact rates of high-risk episodes can take endemic prevalence from zero to 50% and more than double transmissions...
journal_title：Epidemics
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1016/j.epidem.2012.11.003
更新日期：2013-03-01 00:00:00
abstract：:Healthcare-associated infections cause significant patient morbidity and mortality, and contribute to growing healthcare costs, whose effects may be felt most strongly in developing countries. Active surveillance systems, hospital staff compliance, including hand hygiene, and a rational use of antimicrobials are among...
journal_title：Epidemics
pub_type： 杂志文章,多中心研究
doi：10.1016/j.epidem.2018.11.001
更新日期：2019-03-01 00:00:00
abstract：:Producing timely, well-informed and reliable forecasts for an ongoing epidemic of an emerging infectious disease is a huge challenge. Epidemiologists and policy makers have to deal with poor data quality, limited understanding of the disease dynamics, rapidly changing social environment and the uncertainty on effects ...
journal_title：Epidemics
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1016/j.epidem.2017.02.010
更新日期：2018-03-01 00:00:00
abstract：:Rapidly evolving pathogens present a major conceptual and mathematical challenge to our understanding of disease dynamics. For these pathogens, the simulation of disease dynamics requires the use of computational models that incorporate pathogen evolution. Currently, these models are limited by two factors. First, the...
journal_title：Epidemics
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1016/j.epidem.2009.05.003
更新日期：2009-06-01 00:00:00
abstract：BACKGROUND:Pathogenic bacteria are often asymptomatically carried in the nasopharynx. Bacterial carriage can be reduced by vaccination and has been used as an alternative endpoint to clinical disease in randomised controlled trials (RCTs). Vaccine efficacy (VE) is usually calculated as 1 minus a measure of effect. Esti...
journal_title：Epidemics
pub_type： 杂志文章,随机对照试验
doi：10.1016/j.epidem.2014.08.003
更新日期：2014-12-01 00:00:00
abstract：:Studying the emergence of novel infectious agents involves many processes spanning host species, spatial scales, and scientific disciplines. Mathematical models play an essential role in combining insights from these investigations and drawing robust inferences from field and experimental data. We describe nine challe...
journal_title：Epidemics
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1016/j.epidem.2014.09.002
更新日期：2015-03-01 00:00:00
abstract：:Disease models which take explicit account of heterogeneities in the risk of infection offer significant advantages over models in which the risk of infection is assumed to be uniform across all hosts. However, estimating the incidence rate (force of infection) in the different at-risk (exposure) groups is no easy mat...
journal_title：Epidemics
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1016/j.epidem.2013.04.002
更新日期：2013-06-01 00:00:00
abstract：:Influenza infection natural history is often described as a progression through four successive stages: Susceptible-Exposed/Latent-Infectious-Removed (SEIR). The duration of each stage determines the average generation time, the time between infection of a case and infection of his/her infector. Recently, several auth...
journal_title：Epidemics
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1016/j.epidem.2012.06.001
更新日期：2012-08-01 00:00:00
abstract：:Although empirical studies show that protection against influenza infection in humans is closely related to antibody titres, influenza epidemics are often described under the assumption that individuals are either susceptible or not. Here we develop a model in which antibody titre classes are enumerated explicitly and...
journal_title：Epidemics
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1016/j.epidem.2017.03.003
更新日期：2017-09-01 00:00:00
