Patterns of seasonal influenza activity in U.S. core-based statistical areas, described using prescriptions of oseltamivir in Medicare claims data.

Abstract:

:Using Medicare claims data on prescriptions of oseltamivir dispensed to people 65 years old and older, we present a descriptive analysis of patterns of influenza activity in the United States for 579 core-based statistical areas (CBSAs) from the 2010-2011 through the 2015-2016 influenza seasons. During this time, 1,010,819 beneficiaries received a prescription of oseltamivir, ranging from 45,888 in 2011-2012 to 380,745 in 2014-2015. For each season, the peak weekly number of prescriptions correlated with the total number of prescriptions (Pearson's r ≥ 0.88). The variance in peak timing decreased with increasing severity (p < 0.0001). Among these 579 CBSAs, neither peak timing, nor relative timing, nor severity of influenza seasons showed evidence of spatial autocorrelation (0.02 ≤ Moran's I ≤ 0.23). After aggregating data to the state level, agreement between the seasonal severity at the CBSA level and the state level was fair (median Cohen's weighted κ = 0.32, interquartile range = 0.26-0.39). Based on seasonal severity, relative timing, and geographic place, we used hierarchical agglomerative clustering to join CBSAs into influenza zones for each season. Seasonal maps of influenza zones showed no obvious patterns that might assist in predicting influenza zones for future seasons. Because of the large number of prescriptions, these data may be especially useful for characterizing influenza activity and geographic distribution during low severity seasons, when other data sources measuring influenza activity are likely to be sparse.

journal_name

Epidemics

journal_title

Epidemics

authors

Dahlgren FS,Shay DK,Izurieta HS,Forshee RA,Wernecke M,Chillarige Y,Lu Y,Kelman JA,Reed C

doi

10.1016/j.epidem.2018.08.002

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

2019-03-01 00:00:00

pages

23-31

eissn

1755-4365

issn

1878-0067

pii

S1755-4365(18)30014-8

journal_volume

26

pub_type

杂志文章
  • Detectable signals of episodic risk effects on acute HIV transmission: strategies for analyzing transmission systems using genetic data.

    abstract::Episodic high-risk sexual behavior is common and can have a profound effect on HIV transmission. In a model of HIV transmission among men who have sex with men (MSM), changing the frequency, duration and contact rates of high-risk episodes can take endemic prevalence from zero to 50% and more than double transmissions...

    journal_title:Epidemics

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2012.11.003

    authors: Alam SJ,Zhang X,Romero-Severson EO,Henry C,Zhong L,Volz EM,Brenner BG,Koopman JS

    更新日期:2013-03-01 00:00:00

  • A systematic review of MERS-CoV seroprevalence and RNA prevalence in dromedary camels: Implications for animal vaccination.

    abstract::Human infection with Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) is driven by recurring dromedary-to-human spill-over events, leading decision-makers to consider dromedary vaccination. Dromedary vaccine candidates in the development pipeline are showing hopeful results, but gaps in our understanding of the...

    journal_title:Epidemics

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2019.100350

    authors: Dighe A,Jombart T,Van Kerkhove MD,Ferguson N

    更新日期:2019-12-01 00:00:00

  • A prototype forecasting system for bird-borne disease spread in North America based on migratory bird movements.

    abstract::The past two decades have seen major outbreaks of influenza viruses and flaviviruses that are spread at least in part by migratory birds. Although much new information has accumulated on the natural history of the viruses, and on the geography of migration by individual bird species, no synthesis has been achieved reg...

    journal_title:Epidemics

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2009.11.003

    authors: Peterson AT,Andersen MJ,Bodbyl-Roels S,Hosner P,Nyári A,Oliveros C,Papeş M

    更新日期:2009-12-01 00:00:00

  • Using data-driven agent-based models for forecasting emerging infectious diseases.

    abstract::Producing timely, well-informed and reliable forecasts for an ongoing epidemic of an emerging infectious disease is a huge challenge. Epidemiologists and policy makers have to deal with poor data quality, limited understanding of the disease dynamics, rapidly changing social environment and the uncertainty on effects ...

    journal_title:Epidemics

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2017.02.010

    authors: Venkatramanan S,Lewis B,Chen J,Higdon D,Vullikanti A,Marathe M

    更新日期:2018-03-01 00:00:00

  • Stochastic modeling of animal epidemics using data collected over three different spatial scales.

    abstract::A stochastic, spatial, discrete-time, SEIR model of avian influenza epidemics among poultry farms in Pennsylvania is formulated. Using three different spatial scales wherein all the birds within a single farm, ZIP code, or county are clustered into a single point, we obtain three different views of the epidemics. For ...

    journal_title:Epidemics

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2011.02.003

    authors: Rorres C,Pelletier ST,Smith G

    更新日期:2011-06-01 00:00:00

  • Food- and water-borne disease: using case control studies to estimate the force of infection that accounts for primary, sporadic cases.

    abstract::Disease models which take explicit account of heterogeneities in the risk of infection offer significant advantages over models in which the risk of infection is assumed to be uniform across all hosts. However, estimating the incidence rate (force of infection) in the different at-risk (exposure) groups is no easy mat...

    journal_title:Epidemics

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2013.04.002

    authors: Smith G

    更新日期:2013-06-01 00:00:00

  • Quantifying how MHC polymorphism prevents pathogens from adapting to the antigen presentation pathway.

    abstract::The classical antigen presentation pathway consists of two monomorphic (proteasome and TAP) and one polymorphic components (MHC Class I). Viruses can escape CTL responses by mutating an epitope so that it is no longer correctly processed by the pathway. Whereas escape mutations that affect MHC binding are typically no...

    journal_title:Epidemics

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2010.05.003

    authors: Schmid BV,Kęsmir C,de Boer RJ

    更新日期:2010-09-01 00:00:00

  • Kinetics of antibody response to Coxiella burnetii infection (Q fever): Estimation of the seroresponse onset from antibody levels.

    abstract:BACKGROUND:From 2007 to 2009, the Netherlands experienced a major Q fever epidemic. Long-term serological follow-up of acute Q fever patients enabled the investigation of longitudinal antibody responses and estimating the onset of the seroresponse in individual patients. METHODS:All available IgG and IgM phase I and I...

    journal_title:Epidemics

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2015.07.001

    authors: Wielders CC,Teunis PF,Hermans MH,van der Hoek W,Schneeberger PM

    更新日期:2015-12-01 00:00:00

  • epidemix-An interactive multi-model application for teaching and visualizing infectious disease transmission.

    abstract::Mathematical models of disease transmission are used to improve our understanding of patterns of infection and to identify factors influencing them. During recent public and animal health crises, such as pandemic influenza, Ebola, Zika, foot-and-mouth disease, models have made important contributions in addressing pol...

    journal_title:Epidemics

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2017.12.003

    authors: Muellner U,Fournié G,Muellner P,Ahlstrom C,Pfeiffer DU

    更新日期:2018-06-01 00:00:00

  • Estimating HIV incidence from surveillance data indicates a second wave of infections in Brazil.

    abstract::Emerging evidence suggests that HIV incidence rates in Brazil, particularly among men, may be rising. Here we use Brazil's integrated health systems data to develop a mathematical model, reproducing the complex surveillance systems and providing estimates of HIV incidence, number of people living with HIV (PLHIV), rep...

    journal_title:Epidemics

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2019.02.002

    authors: Mangal TD,Pascom ARP,Vesga JF,Meireles MV,Benzaken AS,Hallett TB

    更新日期:2019-06-01 00:00:00

  • Statistical identifiability and sample size calculations for serial seroepidemiology.

    abstract::Inference on disease dynamics is typically performed using case reporting time series of symptomatic disease. The inferred dynamics will vary depending on the reporting patterns and surveillance system for the disease in question, and the inference will miss mild or underreported epidemics. To eliminate the variation ...

    journal_title:Epidemics

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2015.02.005

    authors: Vinh DN,Boni MF

    更新日期:2015-09-01 00:00:00

  • Modeling HIV disease progression and transmission at population-level: The potential impact of modifying disease progression in HIV treatment programs.

    abstract:INTRODUCTION:Mathematical models that incorporate HIV disease progression dynamics can estimate the potential impact of strategies that delay HIV disease progression and reduce infectiousness for persons not on antiretroviral therapy (ART). Suppressive treatment of HIV-positive persons co-infected with herpes simplex v...

    journal_title:Epidemics

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2017.12.001

    authors: Ross JM,Ying R,Celum CL,Baeten JM,Thomas KK,Murnane PM,van Rooyen H,Hughes JP,Barnabas RV

    更新日期:2018-06-01 00:00:00

  • Species interactions may help explain the erratic periodicity of whooping cough dynamics.

    abstract::Incidence of whooping cough exhibits variable dynamics across time and space. The periodicity of this disease varies from annual to five years in different geographic regions in both developing and developed countries. Many hypotheses have been put forward to explain this variability such as nonlinearity and seasonali...

    journal_title:Epidemics

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2017.12.005

    authors: Bhattacharyya S,Ferrari MJ,Bjørnstad ON

    更新日期:2018-06-01 00:00:00

  • Estimating risk over time using data from targeted surveillance systems: application to bovine tuberculosis in Great Britain.

    abstract::For infections that are typically asymptomatic, targeted surveillance systems (whereby individuals at increased risk are tested more frequently) will detect infections earlier on average than systems with random testing or in systems where all individuals are tested at the same intervals. However, estimating temporal ...

    journal_title:Epidemics

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2012.09.003

    authors: Blake IM,Donnelly CA

    更新日期:2012-12-01 00:00:00

  • A theoretical estimate of the risk of microcephaly during pregnancy with Zika virus infection.

    abstract:OBJECTIVES:There has been a growing concern over Zika virus (ZIKV) infection, particularly since a probable link between ZIKV infection during pregnancy and microcephaly in the baby was identified. The present study aimed to estimate a theoretical risk of microcephaly during pregnancy with ZIKV infection in Northeaster...

    journal_title:Epidemics

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2016.03.001

    authors: Nishiura H,Mizumoto K,Rock KS,Yasuda Y,Kinoshita R,Miyamatsu Y

    更新日期:2016-06-01 00:00:00

  • Understanding the dynamics of rapidly evolving pathogens through modeling the tempo of antigenic change: influenza as a case study.

    abstract::Rapidly evolving pathogens present a major conceptual and mathematical challenge to our understanding of disease dynamics. For these pathogens, the simulation of disease dynamics requires the use of computational models that incorporate pathogen evolution. Currently, these models are limited by two factors. First, the...

    journal_title:Epidemics

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2009.05.003

    authors: Koelle K,Kamradt M,Pascual M

    更新日期:2009-06-01 00:00:00

  • Influence of recombination on acquisition and reversion of immune escape and compensatory mutations in HIV-1.

    abstract::Following transmission, HIV-1 adapts in the new host by acquiring mutations that allow it to escape from the host immune response at multiple epitopes. It also reverts mutations associated with epitopes targeted in the transmitting host but not in the new host. Moreover, escape mutations are often associated with addi...

    journal_title:Epidemics

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2015.09.001

    authors: Nagaraja P,Alexander HK,Bonhoeffer S,Dixit NM

    更新日期:2016-03-01 00:00:00

  • Four key challenges in infectious disease modelling using data from multiple sources.

    abstract::Public health-related decision-making on policies aimed at controlling epidemics is increasingly evidence-based, exploiting multiple sources of data. Policy makers rely on complex models that are required to be robust, realistically approximating epidemics and consistent with all relevant data. Meeting these requireme...

    journal_title:Epidemics

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2014.09.004

    authors: De Angelis D,Presanis AM,Birrell PJ,Tomba GS,House T

    更新日期:2015-03-01 00:00:00

  • Modelling multi-site transmission of the human papillomavirus and its impact on vaccination effectiveness.

    abstract:OBJECTIVE:Previous HPV models have only included genital transmission, when evidence suggests that transmission between several anatomical sites occurs. We compared model predictions of population-level HPV vaccination effectiveness against genital HPV16 infection in women, using a 1) uni-site (genital site), and a 2) ...

    journal_title:Epidemics

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2017.08.001

    authors: Lemieux-Mellouki P,Drolet M,Jit M,Gingras G,Brisson M

    更新日期:2017-12-01 00:00:00

  • The drivers of squirrelpox virus dynamics in its grey squirrel reservoir host.

    abstract::Many pathogens of conservation concern circulate endemically within natural wildlife reservoir hosts and it is imperative to understand the individual and ecological drivers of natural transmission dynamics, if any threat to a related endangered species is to be assessed. Our study highlights the key drivers of infect...

    journal_title:Epidemics

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2019.100352

    authors: Chantrey J,Dale T,Jones D,Begon M,Fenton A

    更新日期:2019-09-01 00:00:00

  • The role of intra and inter-hospital patient transfer in the dissemination of heathcare-associated multidrug-resistant pathogens.

    abstract::Healthcare-associated infections cause significant patient morbidity and mortality, and contribute to growing healthcare costs, whose effects may be felt most strongly in developing countries. Active surveillance systems, hospital staff compliance, including hand hygiene, and a rational use of antimicrobials are among...

    journal_title:Epidemics

    pub_type: 杂志文章,多中心研究

    doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2018.11.001

    authors: Vilches TN,Bonesso MF,Guerra HM,Fortaleza CMCB,Park AW,Ferreira CP

    更新日期:2019-03-01 00:00:00

  • Forecasting the new case detection rate of leprosy in four states of Brazil: A comparison of modelling approaches.

    abstract:BACKGROUND:Brazil has the second highest annual number of new leprosy cases. The aim of this study is to formally compare predictions of future new case detection rate (NCDR) trends and the annual probability of NCDR falling below 10/100,000 of four different modelling approaches in four states of Brazil: Rio Grande do...

    journal_title:Epidemics

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2017.01.005

    authors: Blok DJ,Crump RE,Sundaresh R,Ndeffo-Mbah M,Galvani AP,Porco TC,de Vlas SJ,Medley GF,Richardus JH

    更新日期:2017-03-01 00:00:00

  • The influence of changing host immunity on 1918-19 pandemic dynamics.

    abstract::The sociological and biological factors which gave rise to the three pandemic waves of Spanish influenza in England during 1918-19 are still poorly understood. Symptom reporting data available for a limited set of locations in England indicates that reinfection in multiple waves occurred, suggesting a role for loss of...

    journal_title:Epidemics

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2014.07.004

    authors: Bolton KJ,McCaw JM,McVernon J,Mathews JD

    更新日期:2014-09-01 00:00:00

  • Dengue serotype immune-interactions and their consequences for vaccine impact predictions.

    abstract::Dengue is one of the most important and wide-spread viral infections affecting human populations. The last few decades have seen a dramatic increase in the global burden of dengue, with the virus now being endemic or near-endemic in over 100 countries world-wide. A recombinant tetravalent vaccine candidate (CYD-TDV) h...

    journal_title:Epidemics

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2016.05.003

    authors: Lourenço J,Recker M

    更新日期:2016-09-01 00:00:00

  • The impact of lockdown strategies targeting age groups on the burden of COVID-19 in France.

    abstract::Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, many countries have implemented a complete lockdown of their population that may not be sustainable for long. To identify the best strategy to replace this full lockdown, sophisticated models that rely on mobility data have been developed. In this study, using the example of France as a c...

    journal_title:Epidemics

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2020.100424

    authors: Roche B,Garchitorena A,Roiz D

    更新日期:2020-12-01 00:00:00

  • Estimating influenza latency and infectious period durations using viral excretion data.

    abstract::Influenza infection natural history is often described as a progression through four successive stages: Susceptible-Exposed/Latent-Infectious-Removed (SEIR). The duration of each stage determines the average generation time, the time between infection of a case and infection of his/her infector. Recently, several auth...

    journal_title:Epidemics

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2012.06.001

    authors: Cori A,Valleron AJ,Carrat F,Scalia Tomba G,Thomas G,Boëlle PY

    更新日期:2012-08-01 00:00:00

  • Dengue modeling in rural Cambodia: Statistical performance versus epidemiological relevance.

    abstract::Dengue dynamics are shaped by the complex interplay between several factors, including vector seasonality, interaction between four virus serotypes, and inapparent infections. However, paucity or quality of data do not allow for all of these to be taken into account in mathematical models. In order to explore separate...

    journal_title:Epidemics

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2018.08.004

    authors: Champagne C,Paul R,Ly S,Duong V,Leang R,Cazelles B

    更新日期:2019-03-01 00:00:00

  • Co-feeding transmission facilitates strain coexistence in Borrelia burgdorferi, the Lyme disease agent.

    abstract::Coexistence of multiple tick-borne pathogens or strains is common in natural hosts and can be facilitated by resource partitioning of the host species, within-host localization, or by different transmission pathways. Most vector-borne pathogens are transmitted horizontally via systemic host infection, but transmission...

    journal_title:Epidemics

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2016.12.002

    authors: States SL,Huang CI,Davis S,Tufts DM,Diuk-Wasser MA

    更新日期:2017-06-01 00:00:00

  • Defining epidemics in computer simulation models: How do definitions influence conclusions?

    abstract::Computer models have proven to be useful tools in studying epidemic disease in human populations. Such models are being used by a broader base of researchers, and it has become more important to ensure that descriptions of model construction and data analyses are clear and communicate important features of model struc...

    journal_title:Epidemics

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2016.12.001

    authors: Orbann C,Sattenspiel L,Miller E,Dimka J

    更新日期:2017-06-01 00:00:00

  • Comparing methods for estimating R0 from the size distribution of subcritical transmission chains.

    abstract::Many diseases exhibit subcritical transmission (i.e. 0

    journal_title:Epidemics

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2013.05.002

    authors: Blumberg S,Lloyd-Smith JO

    更新日期:2013-09-01 00:00:00