当前位置： SCI文献检索 > Epidemics期刊下所有文献 > Effects of abundance on infection in natural populations: field voles and cowpox virus.

Effects of abundance on infection in natural populations: field voles and cowpox virus.

Abstract：

:Detailed results on the dynamics of cowpox virus infection in four natural populations of the field vole, Microtus agrestis, are presented. Populations were sampled every 4 weeks (8 weeks in mid-winter) for 6 years. The purpose was to examine the relationships between overall or susceptible host abundance (N, S) and both the number of infected hosts (I) and the prevalence of infection (I/N). Overall, both I and I/N increased with N. However, evidence for a threshold abundance, below which infection was not found, was at best equivocal in spite of the wide range of abundances sampled. Cross-correlation analyses reflected annual and multi-annual cycles in N, I, S and I/N, but whereas N was most strongly correlated with contemporary values of I and I/N, in the case of S, the strongest correlations were with values 1 to 2 months preceding the values of I and I/N. There was no evidence for a 'juvenile dilution effect' (prevalence decreasing with abundance as new susceptibles flush into the population) and only weak evidence of a time-delayed effect of abundance on the number infected. We argue that these effects may occur only in systems with characteristics that are not found here. Transfer function analyses, which have been neglected in epidemiology, were applied. These models, with ln(S) as the input parameter, in spite of their simplicity, could be linked closely to conventional formulations of the transmission process and were highly effective in predicting the number infected. By contrast, transfer function models with ln(N) as the input parameter were less successful in predicting the number infected and/or were more complex and more difficult to interpret. Nonetheless, overall, we contend that while monitoring numbers susceptible has most to offer, monitoring overall abundance may provide valuable insights into the dynamics of infection.

journal_name

Epidemics

journal_title

Epidemics

authors

Begon M,Telfer S,Burthe S,Lambin X,Smith MJ,Paterson S

doi

10.1016/j.epidem.2008.10.001

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

2009-03-01 00:00:00

pages

35-46

issue

1

eissn

1755-4365

issn

1878-0067

pii

S1755-4365(08)00005-4

journal_volume

1

pub_type

杂志文章

相关文献

Epidemics文献大全
  • epidemix-An interactive multi-model application for teaching and visualizing infectious disease transmission.

    abstract：:Mathematical models of disease transmission are used to improve our understanding of patterns of infection and to identify factors influencing them. During recent public and animal health crises, such as pandemic influenza, Ebola, Zika, foot-and-mouth disease, models have made important contributions in addressing pol...

    journal_title：Epidemics

    pub_type： 杂志文章

    doi：10.1016/j.epidem.2017.12.003

    authors： Muellner U,Fournié G,Muellner P,Ahlstrom C,Pfeiffer DU

    更新日期：2018-06-01 00:00:00

  • The role of intra and inter-hospital patient transfer in the dissemination of heathcare-associated multidrug-resistant pathogens.

    abstract：:Healthcare-associated infections cause significant patient morbidity and mortality, and contribute to growing healthcare costs, whose effects may be felt most strongly in developing countries. Active surveillance systems, hospital staff compliance, including hand hygiene, and a rational use of antimicrobials are among...

    journal_title：Epidemics

    pub_type： 杂志文章,多中心研究

    doi：10.1016/j.epidem.2018.11.001

    authors： Vilches TN,Bonesso MF,Guerra HM,Fortaleza CMCB,Park AW,Ferreira CP

    更新日期：2019-03-01 00:00:00

  • Food- and water-borne disease: using case control studies to estimate the force of infection that accounts for primary, sporadic cases.

    abstract：:Disease models which take explicit account of heterogeneities in the risk of infection offer significant advantages over models in which the risk of infection is assumed to be uniform across all hosts. However, estimating the incidence rate (force of infection) in the different at-risk (exposure) groups is no easy mat...

    journal_title：Epidemics

    pub_type： 杂志文章

    doi：10.1016/j.epidem.2013.04.002

    authors： Smith G

    更新日期：2013-06-01 00:00:00

  • Modelling multi-site transmission of the human papillomavirus and its impact on vaccination effectiveness.

    abstract：OBJECTIVE:Previous HPV models have only included genital transmission, when evidence suggests that transmission between several anatomical sites occurs. We compared model predictions of population-level HPV vaccination effectiveness against genital HPV16 infection in women, using a 1) uni-site (genital site), and a 2) ...

    journal_title：Epidemics

    pub_type： 杂志文章

    doi：10.1016/j.epidem.2017.08.001

    authors： Lemieux-Mellouki P,Drolet M,Jit M,Gingras G,Brisson M

    更新日期：2017-12-01 00:00:00

  • A theoretical estimate of the risk of microcephaly during pregnancy with Zika virus infection.

    abstract：OBJECTIVES:There has been a growing concern over Zika virus (ZIKV) infection, particularly since a probable link between ZIKV infection during pregnancy and microcephaly in the baby was identified. The present study aimed to estimate a theoretical risk of microcephaly during pregnancy with ZIKV infection in Northeaster...

    journal_title：Epidemics

    pub_type： 杂志文章

    doi：10.1016/j.epidem.2016.03.001

    authors： Nishiura H,Mizumoto K,Rock KS,Yasuda Y,Kinoshita R,Miyamatsu Y

    更新日期：2016-06-01 00:00:00

  • The drivers of squirrelpox virus dynamics in its grey squirrel reservoir host.

    abstract：:Many pathogens of conservation concern circulate endemically within natural wildlife reservoir hosts and it is imperative to understand the individual and ecological drivers of natural transmission dynamics, if any threat to a related endangered species is to be assessed. Our study highlights the key drivers of infect...

    journal_title：Epidemics

    pub_type： 杂志文章

    doi：10.1016/j.epidem.2019.100352

    authors： Chantrey J,Dale T,Jones D,Begon M,Fenton A

    更新日期：2019-09-01 00:00:00

  • Impact of coverage-dependent marginal costs on optimal HPV vaccination strategies.

    abstract：:The effectiveness of vaccinating males against the human papillomavirus (HPV) remains a controversial subject. Many existing studies conclude that increasing female coverage is more effective than diverting resources into male vaccination. Recently, several empirical studies on HPV immunization have been published, pr...

    journal_title：Epidemics

    pub_type： 杂志文章

    doi：10.1016/j.epidem.2015.01.003

    authors： Ryser MD,McGoff K,Herzog DP,Sivakoff DJ,Myers ER

    更新日期：2015-06-01 00:00:00

  • Real-time forecasting of infectious disease dynamics with a stochastic semi-mechanistic model.

    abstract：:Real-time forecasts of infectious diseases can help public health planning, especially during outbreaks. If forecasts are generated from mechanistic models, they can be further used to target resources or to compare the impact of possible interventions. However, paremeterising such models is often difficult in real ti...

    journal_title：Epidemics

    pub_type： 杂志文章

    doi：10.1016/j.epidem.2016.11.003

    authors： Funk S,Camacho A,Kucharski AJ,Eggo RM,Edmunds WJ

    更新日期：2018-03-01 00:00:00

  • Epidemics and control strategies for diseases of farmed salmonids: a parameter study.

    abstract：:The susceptibility of the English and Welsh fish farming and fisheries industry to emergent diseases is assessed using a stochastic simulation model. The model dynamics operate on a network comprising directed transport and river contacts, as well as undirected local and fomite transmissions. The directed connections ...

    journal_title：Epidemics

    pub_type： 杂志文章

    doi：10.1016/j.epidem.2010.08.001

    authors： Jonkers AR,Sharkey KJ,Thrush MA,Turnbull JF,Morgan KL

    更新日期：2010-12-01 00:00:00

  • Accounting for cross-immunity can improve forecast accuracy during influenza epidemics.

    abstract：:Previous exposure to influenza viruses confers cross-immunity against future infections with related strains. However, this is not always accounted for explicitly in mathematical models used for forecasting during influenza outbreaks. We show that, if an influenza outbreak is due to a strain that is similar to one tha...

    journal_title：Epidemics

    pub_type： 杂志文章

    doi：10.1016/j.epidem.2020.100432

    authors： Sachak-Patwa R,Byrne HM,Thompson RN

    更新日期：2020-12-17 00:00:00

  • Forecasting the new case detection rate of leprosy in four states of Brazil: A comparison of modelling approaches.

    abstract：BACKGROUND:Brazil has the second highest annual number of new leprosy cases. The aim of this study is to formally compare predictions of future new case detection rate (NCDR) trends and the annual probability of NCDR falling below 10/100,000 of four different modelling approaches in four states of Brazil: Rio Grande do...

    journal_title：Epidemics

    pub_type： 杂志文章

    doi：10.1016/j.epidem.2017.01.005

    authors： Blok DJ,Crump RE,Sundaresh R,Ndeffo-Mbah M,Galvani AP,Porco TC,de Vlas SJ,Medley GF,Richardus JH

    更新日期：2017-03-01 00:00:00

  • A systematic review of MERS-CoV seroprevalence and RNA prevalence in dromedary camels: Implications for animal vaccination.

    abstract：:Human infection with Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) is driven by recurring dromedary-to-human spill-over events, leading decision-makers to consider dromedary vaccination. Dromedary vaccine candidates in the development pipeline are showing hopeful results, but gaps in our understanding of the...

    journal_title：Epidemics

    pub_type： 杂志文章

    doi：10.1016/j.epidem.2019.100350

    authors： Dighe A,Jombart T,Van Kerkhove MD,Ferguson N

    更新日期：2019-12-01 00:00:00

  • The impact of lockdown strategies targeting age groups on the burden of COVID-19 in France.

    abstract：:Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, many countries have implemented a complete lockdown of their population that may not be sustainable for long. To identify the best strategy to replace this full lockdown, sophisticated models that rely on mobility data have been developed. In this study, using the example of France as a c...

    journal_title：Epidemics

    pub_type： 杂志文章

    doi：10.1016/j.epidem.2020.100424

    authors： Roche B,Garchitorena A,Roiz D

    更新日期：2020-12-01 00:00:00

  • Modelling management strategies for a disease including undetected sub-clinical infection: bacterial kidney disease in Scottish salmon and trout farms.

    abstract：:Disease is a major constraint on animal production and welfare in agriculture and aquaculture. Movement of animals between farms is one of the most significant routes of disease transmission and is particularly hard to control for pathogens with subclinical infection. Renibacterium salmoninarum causes bacterial kidney...

    journal_title：Epidemics

    pub_type： 杂志文章

    doi：10.1016/j.epidem.2011.10.002

    authors： Murray AG,Hall M,Munro LA,Wallace IS

    更新日期：2011-09-01 00:00:00

  • An individual-based simulation of pneumonic plague transmission following an outbreak and the significance of intervention compliance.

    abstract：:The existence of primary pneumonic plague outbreaks raises concerns over the use of the causative bacteria as an aerosol-based bioweapon. We employed an individual-based model, parameterised using published personal contact information, to assess the severity of a deliberate release in a discrete community, under the ...

    journal_title：Epidemics

    pub_type： 杂志文章

    doi：10.1016/j.epidem.2011.03.001

    authors： Williams AD,Hall IM,Rubin GJ,Amlôt R,Leach S

    更新日期：2011-06-01 00:00:00

  • Four key challenges in infectious disease modelling using data from multiple sources.

    abstract：:Public health-related decision-making on policies aimed at controlling epidemics is increasingly evidence-based, exploiting multiple sources of data. Policy makers rely on complex models that are required to be robust, realistically approximating epidemics and consistent with all relevant data. Meeting these requireme...

    journal_title：Epidemics

    pub_type： 杂志文章

    doi：10.1016/j.epidem.2014.09.004

    authors： De Angelis D,Presanis AM,Birrell PJ,Tomba GS,House T

    更新日期：2015-03-01 00:00:00

  • Quantifying how MHC polymorphism prevents pathogens from adapting to the antigen presentation pathway.

    abstract：:The classical antigen presentation pathway consists of two monomorphic (proteasome and TAP) and one polymorphic components (MHC Class I). Viruses can escape CTL responses by mutating an epitope so that it is no longer correctly processed by the pathway. Whereas escape mutations that affect MHC binding are typically no...

    journal_title：Epidemics

    pub_type： 杂志文章

    doi：10.1016/j.epidem.2010.05.003

    authors： Schmid BV,Kęsmir C,de Boer RJ

    更新日期：2010-09-01 00:00:00

  • Using data-driven agent-based models for forecasting emerging infectious diseases.

    abstract：:Producing timely, well-informed and reliable forecasts for an ongoing epidemic of an emerging infectious disease is a huge challenge. Epidemiologists and policy makers have to deal with poor data quality, limited understanding of the disease dynamics, rapidly changing social environment and the uncertainty on effects ...

    journal_title：Epidemics

    pub_type： 杂志文章

    doi：10.1016/j.epidem.2017.02.010

    authors： Venkatramanan S,Lewis B,Chen J,Higdon D,Vullikanti A,Marathe M

    更新日期：2018-03-01 00:00:00

  • The influence of changing host immunity on 1918-19 pandemic dynamics.

    abstract：:The sociological and biological factors which gave rise to the three pandemic waves of Spanish influenza in England during 1918-19 are still poorly understood. Symptom reporting data available for a limited set of locations in England indicates that reinfection in multiple waves occurred, suggesting a role for loss of...

    journal_title：Epidemics

    pub_type： 杂志文章

    doi：10.1016/j.epidem.2014.07.004

    authors： Bolton KJ,McCaw JM,McVernon J,Mathews JD

    更新日期：2014-09-01 00:00:00

  • Modeling HIV disease progression and transmission at population-level: The potential impact of modifying disease progression in HIV treatment programs.

    abstract：INTRODUCTION:Mathematical models that incorporate HIV disease progression dynamics can estimate the potential impact of strategies that delay HIV disease progression and reduce infectiousness for persons not on antiretroviral therapy (ART). Suppressive treatment of HIV-positive persons co-infected with herpes simplex v...

    journal_title：Epidemics

    pub_type： 杂志文章

    doi：10.1016/j.epidem.2017.12.001

    authors： Ross JM,Ying R,Celum CL,Baeten JM,Thomas KK,Murnane PM,van Rooyen H,Hughes JP,Barnabas RV

    更新日期：2018-06-01 00:00:00

  • Dengue modeling in rural Cambodia: Statistical performance versus epidemiological relevance.

    abstract：:Dengue dynamics are shaped by the complex interplay between several factors, including vector seasonality, interaction between four virus serotypes, and inapparent infections. However, paucity or quality of data do not allow for all of these to be taken into account in mathematical models. In order to explore separate...

    journal_title：Epidemics

    pub_type： 杂志文章

    doi：10.1016/j.epidem.2018.08.004

    authors： Champagne C,Paul R,Ly S,Duong V,Leang R,Cazelles B

    更新日期：2019-03-01 00:00:00

  • Patterns of seasonal influenza activity in U.S. core-based statistical areas, described using prescriptions of oseltamivir in Medicare claims data.

    abstract：:Using Medicare claims data on prescriptions of oseltamivir dispensed to people 65 years old and older, we present a descriptive analysis of patterns of influenza activity in the United States for 579 core-based statistical areas (CBSAs) from the 2010-2011 through the 2015-2016 influenza seasons. During this time, 1,01...

    journal_title：Epidemics

    pub_type： 杂志文章

    doi：10.1016/j.epidem.2018.08.002

    authors： Dahlgren FS,Shay DK,Izurieta HS,Forshee RA,Wernecke M,Chillarige Y,Lu Y,Kelman JA,Reed C

    更新日期：2019-03-01 00:00:00

  • Understanding the dynamics of rapidly evolving pathogens through modeling the tempo of antigenic change: influenza as a case study.

    abstract：:Rapidly evolving pathogens present a major conceptual and mathematical challenge to our understanding of disease dynamics. For these pathogens, the simulation of disease dynamics requires the use of computational models that incorporate pathogen evolution. Currently, these models are limited by two factors. First, the...

    journal_title：Epidemics

    pub_type： 杂志文章

    doi：10.1016/j.epidem.2009.05.003

    authors： Koelle K,Kamradt M,Pascual M

    更新日期：2009-06-01 00:00:00

  • A new approach to characterising infectious disease transmission dynamics from sentinel surveillance: application to the Italian 2009-2010 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic.

    abstract：:Syndromic and virological data are routinely collected by many countries and are often the only information available in real time. The analysis of surveillance data poses many statistical challenges that have not yet been addressed. For instance, the fraction of cases that seek healthcare and are thus detected is oft...

    journal_title：Epidemics

    pub_type： 杂志文章

    doi：10.1016/j.epidem.2011.11.001

    authors： Dorigatti I,Cauchemez S,Pugliese A,Ferguson NM

    更新日期：2012-03-01 00:00:00

  • Kinetics of antibody response to Coxiella burnetii infection (Q fever): Estimation of the seroresponse onset from antibody levels.

    abstract：BACKGROUND:From 2007 to 2009, the Netherlands experienced a major Q fever epidemic. Long-term serological follow-up of acute Q fever patients enabled the investigation of longitudinal antibody responses and estimating the onset of the seroresponse in individual patients. METHODS:All available IgG and IgM phase I and I...

    journal_title：Epidemics

    pub_type： 杂志文章

    doi：10.1016/j.epidem.2015.07.001

    authors： Wielders CC,Teunis PF,Hermans MH,van der Hoek W,Schneeberger PM

    更新日期：2015-12-01 00:00:00

  • Dengue serotype immune-interactions and their consequences for vaccine impact predictions.

    abstract：:Dengue is one of the most important and wide-spread viral infections affecting human populations. The last few decades have seen a dramatic increase in the global burden of dengue, with the virus now being endemic or near-endemic in over 100 countries world-wide. A recombinant tetravalent vaccine candidate (CYD-TDV) h...

    journal_title：Epidemics

    pub_type： 杂志文章

    doi：10.1016/j.epidem.2016.05.003

    authors： Lourenço J,Recker M

    更新日期：2016-09-01 00:00:00

  • Defining epidemics in computer simulation models: How do definitions influence conclusions?

    abstract：:Computer models have proven to be useful tools in studying epidemic disease in human populations. Such models are being used by a broader base of researchers, and it has become more important to ensure that descriptions of model construction and data analyses are clear and communicate important features of model struc...

    journal_title：Epidemics

    pub_type： 杂志文章

    doi：10.1016/j.epidem.2016.12.001

    authors： Orbann C,Sattenspiel L,Miller E,Dimka J

    更新日期：2017-06-01 00:00:00

  • Detectable signals of episodic risk effects on acute HIV transmission: strategies for analyzing transmission systems using genetic data.

    abstract：:Episodic high-risk sexual behavior is common and can have a profound effect on HIV transmission. In a model of HIV transmission among men who have sex with men (MSM), changing the frequency, duration and contact rates of high-risk episodes can take endemic prevalence from zero to 50% and more than double transmissions...

    journal_title：Epidemics

    pub_type： 杂志文章

    doi：10.1016/j.epidem.2012.11.003

    authors： Alam SJ,Zhang X,Romero-Severson EO,Henry C,Zhong L,Volz EM,Brenner BG,Koopman JS

    更新日期：2013-03-01 00:00:00

  • Statistical identifiability and sample size calculations for serial seroepidemiology.

    abstract：:Inference on disease dynamics is typically performed using case reporting time series of symptomatic disease. The inferred dynamics will vary depending on the reporting patterns and surveillance system for the disease in question, and the inference will miss mild or underreported epidemics. To eliminate the variation ...

    journal_title：Epidemics

    pub_type： 杂志文章

    doi：10.1016/j.epidem.2015.02.005

    authors： Vinh DN,Boni MF

    更新日期：2015-09-01 00:00:00

  • A prototype forecasting system for bird-borne disease spread in North America based on migratory bird movements.

    abstract：:The past two decades have seen major outbreaks of influenza viruses and flaviviruses that are spread at least in part by migratory birds. Although much new information has accumulated on the natural history of the viruses, and on the geography of migration by individual bird species, no synthesis has been achieved reg...

    journal_title：Epidemics

    pub_type： 杂志文章

    doi：10.1016/j.epidem.2009.11.003

    authors： Peterson AT,Andersen MJ,Bodbyl-Roels S,Hosner P,Nyári A,Oliveros C,Papeş M

    更新日期：2009-12-01 00:00:00