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Setting the boundaries of prior influence on kinship relation testing: the case of many hypotheses.

Abstract：

:Kinship relation and, in particular, paternity probability estimation using a Bayesian approach require the input of a priori probabilities of different hypotheses. In practical case work, a priori probabilities or priors, for short, must often be estimated using only common sense and symmetry arguments because in most cases, there is no evidence-based information on which the priors may be determined. In contrast to the accuracy of the likelihood probabilities or the likelihood ratios, the precision of the priors is usually very poor. Thus, a quantitative estimation of the priors' influence on the paternity probability is desirable. This article presents exact formulae to define sharp minimum and maximum boundaries of posterior probabilities as a function of prior boundaries which may be applied in kinship cases with varying numbers of hypotheses and also presents two case examples.

journal_name

Int J Legal Med

journal_title

International journal of legal medicine

authors

Hubig M,Sanft J,Muggenthaler H,Mall G

doi

10.1007/s00414-013-0827-6

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

2013-11-01 00:00:00

pages

1055-63

issue

6

eissn

0937-9827

issn

1437-1596

journal_volume

127

pub_type

杂志文章

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