Transmission dynamics of lumpy skin disease in Ethiopia.

Abstract:

:Lumpy skin disease (LSD) is a severe disease of cattle caused by a Capripoxvirus and often caused epidemics in Ethiopia and many other countries. This study was undertaken to quantify the transmission between animals and to estimate the infection reproduction ratio in a predominantly mixed crop-livestock system and in intensive commercial herd types. The transmission parameters were based on a susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) epidemic model with environmental transmission and estimated using generalized linear models. The transmission parameters were estimated using a survival rate of infectious virus in the environment equal to 0·325 per day, a value based on the best-fitting statistical model. The transmission rate parameter between animals was 0·072 (95% CI 0·068-0·076) per day in the crop-livestock production system, whereas this transmission rate in intensive production system was 0·076 (95% CI 0·068-0·085) per day. The reproduction ratio (R) of LSD between animals in the crop-livestock production system was 1·07, whereas it was 1·09 between animals in the intensive production system. The calculated R provides a baseline against which various control options can be assessed for efficacy.

journal_name

Epidemiol Infect

authors

Molla W,Frankena K,DE Jong MCM

doi

10.1017/S0950268817001637

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

2017-10-01 00:00:00

pages

2856-2863

issue

13

eissn

0950-2688

issn

1469-4409

pii

S0950268817001637

journal_volume

145

pub_type

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