Abstract:
:Lumpy skin disease (LSD) is a severe disease of cattle caused by a Capripoxvirus and often caused epidemics in Ethiopia and many other countries. This study was undertaken to quantify the transmission between animals and to estimate the infection reproduction ratio in a predominantly mixed crop-livestock system and in intensive commercial herd types. The transmission parameters were based on a susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) epidemic model with environmental transmission and estimated using generalized linear models. The transmission parameters were estimated using a survival rate of infectious virus in the environment equal to 0·325 per day, a value based on the best-fitting statistical model. The transmission rate parameter between animals was 0·072 (95% CI 0·068-0·076) per day in the crop-livestock production system, whereas this transmission rate in intensive production system was 0·076 (95% CI 0·068-0·085) per day. The reproduction ratio (R) of LSD between animals in the crop-livestock production system was 1·07, whereas it was 1·09 between animals in the intensive production system. The calculated R provides a baseline against which various control options can be assessed for efficacy.
journal_name
Epidemiol Infectjournal_title
Epidemiology and infectionauthors
Molla W,Frankena K,DE Jong MCMdoi
10.1017/S0950268817001637subject
Has Abstractpub_date
2017-10-01 00:00:00pages
2856-2863issue
13eissn
0950-2688issn
1469-4409pii
S0950268817001637journal_volume
145pub_type
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