Abstract:
:Capture-recapture analysis has been used to evaluate infectious disease surveillance. Violation of the underlying assumptions can jeopardize the validity of the capture-recapture estimates and a tool is needed for cross-validation. We re-examined 19 datasets of log-linear model capture-recapture studies on infectious disease incidence using three truncated models for incomplete count data as alternative population estimators. The truncated models yield comparable estimates to independent log-linear capture-recapture models and to parsimonious log-linear models when the number of patients is limited, or the ratio between patients registered once and twice is between 0.5 and 1.5. Compared to saturated log-linear models the truncated models produce considerably lower and often more plausible estimates. We conclude that for estimating infectious disease incidence independent and parsimonious three-source log-linear capture-recapture models are preferable but truncated models can be used as a heuristic tool to identify possible failure in log-linear models, especially when saturated log-linear models are selected.
journal_name
Epidemiol Infectjournal_title
Epidemiology and infectionauthors
van Hest NA,Grant AD,Smit F,Story A,Richardus JHdoi
10.1017/S0950268807008254subject
Has Abstractpub_date
2008-01-01 00:00:00pages
14-22issue
1eissn
0950-2688issn
1469-4409pii
S0950268807008254journal_volume
136pub_type
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