Transmission of bovine leukaemia virus within dairy herds by simulation modelling.

Abstract:

:In Argentina, bovine leukaemia virus (BLV) infection is common in dairy herds. The country currently has a National Voluntary Control Programme but relatively few farms have enrolled. However, there is increased interest from authorities and farmers to implement regional compulsory programmes but there is scarce quantitative information of the transmission of BLV in cattle herds. This information is a prerequisite to develop effective BLV control strategies. Mathematical modelling offers ways of integrating population-level knowledge and epidemiological data to predict the outcomes of intervention scenarios. The purpose of the current paper is to gain understanding about the dynamics of the transmission of BLV in dairy herds from Argentina by simulation and to compare various BLV transmission models and select the one that is most appropriate. The hypothetical herd is conceptually described in terms of BLV status as a population of individuals that are protected by maternal antibodies (M), that are susceptible (S), that are in the latent period (E) or that are infectious (I). BLV is spread by horizontal and vertical transmission. We used an age-structured population model and within-herd transmission was simulated by Monte Carlo techniques. The next-generation approach has been used for the systematic computation of the basic reproduction ratio (R0). Parameter values for disease transmission were derived from previously published data; rates of entry, exit or transition between age groups were calculated based on our previous study, observational data, expert opinions and literature. With these parameter values the probability of a minor outbreak was estimated to be 10%, the probability of extinction was estimated as <0.001% and the expected time to extinction as more than 80 years. The probability of a minor outbreak and changes in prevalence were different when the index case was an adult cow compared to introduction by a heifer. Prediction of prevalences from MSI models fit the data satisfactorily. R0 was estimated as 9.5. The sensitivity analysis on R0 showed that all measures directed to reduce the transmission rate are potentially effective given operational control measures. An important prediction of these models is that, even in a relatively small, closed dairy herd, the time-scale for a BLV outbreak may be as long as several years and within-herd control of BLV requires intensive efforts.

journal_name

Epidemiol Infect

authors

Monti GE,Frankena K,De Jong MC

doi

10.1017/S0950268806007357

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

2007-07-01 00:00:00

pages

722-32

issue

5

eissn

0950-2688

issn

1469-4409

pii

S0950268806007357

journal_volume

135

pub_type

杂志文章
  • Molecular variation of meningococcal serotype 4 antigen genes.

    abstract::Changes in the frequency of serogroup B non serotypable (B:NT) meningococci isolated in England and Wales were investigated by T-track fingerprint analysis, DNA nucleotide sequence determination, and serotyping by whole cell ELISA and dot blot assay. Seventy-three per cent of the isolates designated as B:NT by the Men...

    journal_title:Epidemiology and infection

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1017/s0950268898008942

    authors: Urwin R,Feavers IM,Jones DM,Maiden MC,Fox AJ

    更新日期:1998-08-01 00:00:00

  • The use of sorbitol-MacConkey agar in conjunction with a specific antiserum for the detection of Vero cytotoxin-producing strains of Escherichia coli O 157.

    abstract::Using DNA probes specific for the genes encoding Vero cytotoxins 1 and 2 in hybridization experiments on faecal samples, Vero cytotoxin-producing Escherichia coli (VTEC) of serogroup O 157 were detected in 21 of 63 cases of haemorrhagic colitis, 9 of 31 cases of non-bloody diarrhoea and 14 of 68 cases of haemolytic ur...

    journal_title:Epidemiology and infection

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1017/s0950268800054261

    authors: Kleanthous H,Fry NK,Smith HR,Gross RJ,Rowe B

    更新日期:1988-10-01 00:00:00

  • The seroepidemiology of B. pertussis infection in Catalonia, Spain.

    abstract::A survey of the seroprevalence of pertussis antibodies in a representative sample of the population from Catalonia was carried out. Ninety-seven municipalities and 30 schools were randomly selected to recruit the 2126 subjects who participated in the study. A serum sample was obtained from all individuals participatin...

    journal_title:Epidemiology and infection

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1017/s0950268801005325

    authors: Domínguez A,Vidal J,Plans P,Salleras L

    更新日期:2001-04-01 00:00:00

  • Complexity of Pseudomonas aeruginosa infection in cystic fibrosis: combined results from esterase electrophoresis and rDNA restriction fragment length polymorphism analysis.

    abstract::Esterase electrophoretic typing and restriction fragment length polymorphism of ribosomal DNA regions (ribotyping) were used to differentiate 102 Pseudomonas aeruginosa clinical isolates obtained from chronic lung infection in 23 patients with cystic fibrosis (CF) and two reference strains (including the type strain A...

    journal_title:Epidemiology and infection

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1017/s0950268800067595

    authors: Denamur E,Picard B,Goullet P,Bingen E,Lambert N,Elion J

    更新日期:1991-06-01 00:00:00

  • Changing epidemiology of dengue hemorrhagic fever in Thailand.

    abstract::Dengue haemorrhagic fever (DHF) and dengue shock syndrome (DSS) are reportable diseases, the third most common causes for hospitalization of children in Thailand. Data collected from the Ministry of Public Health were analysed for trends. Rates of DHF increased in Thailand until 1987 when the largest epidemic ever, 32...

    journal_title:Epidemiology and infection

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1017/s0950268898001617

    authors: Chareonsook O,Foy HM,Teeraratkul A,Silarug N

    更新日期:1999-02-01 00:00:00

  • A study of the epidemiology of Salmonella bareilly in India using a new phage-typing system.

    abstract::A total of 637 strains of Salmonella bareilly received from different parts of India between 1959 and 1985 were phage typed using five locally isolated wild phages. The overall typability was 94.5% and 11 different phage types could be defined. Phage types 10 and 1 were the most prevalent and the geographical and sour...

    journal_title:Epidemiology and infection

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1017/s0950268800067352

    authors: Singh G,Sharma NC,Jayasheela M,Saxena SN

    更新日期:1988-04-01 00:00:00

  • Kinetics of the IgG antibody response to pertussis toxin after infection with B. pertussis.

    abstract::We aimed to provide a quantitative description of decay in pertussis antibody levels to aid in finding a serological estimate of the incidence of pertussis. The serum IgG response against pertussis toxin was studied in a group of clinically diagnosed patients. Individual records consisted of repeated serum IgG measure...

    journal_title:Epidemiology and infection

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1017/s0950268802007896

    authors: Teunis PF,van der Heijden OG,de Melker HE,Schellekens JF,Versteegh FG,Kretzschmar ME

    更新日期:2002-12-01 00:00:00

  • Selective decontamination in bone marrow transplant recipients.

    abstract::Patients undergoing bone marrow transplantation become immunocompromised for various reasons. Deep granulocytopenia, induced by conditioning (chemotherapy and total body irradiation), renders the patient at risk for serious bacterial and fungal infections. Our strategy for prevention of these infections by selective d...

    journal_title:Epidemiology and infection

    pub_type: 杂志文章,评审

    doi:10.1017/s0950268800050342

    authors: Guiot HF,van Furth R

    更新日期:1992-12-01 00:00:00

  • The prevalence of antimicrobial resistance in human faecal flora in South Africa.

    abstract::Between January and March 1992, 361 faecal specimens were collected from the healthy black population in the Transvaal Province of South Africa. Each specimen was examined for the prevalence of antimicrobial resistance in commensal bacteria. Volunteers, from both rural and urban dwellings, were divided into four age g...

    journal_title:Epidemiology and infection

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1017/s0950268800056922

    authors: Shanahan PM,Wylie BA,Adrian PV,Koornhof HJ,Thomson CJ,Amyes SG

    更新日期:1993-10-01 00:00:00

  • Assessing the use of antiviral treatment to control influenza.

    abstract::Vaccines are the cornerstone of influenza control policy, but can suffer from several drawbacks. Seasonal influenza vaccines are prone to production problems and low efficacies, while pandemic vaccines are unlikely to be available in time to slow a rapidly spreading global outbreak. Antiviral therapy was found to be b...

    journal_title:Epidemiology and infection

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1017/S0950268814002520

    authors: Kramer SC,Bansal S

    更新日期:2015-06-01 00:00:00

  • Milkborne general outbreaks of infectious intestinal disease, England and Wales, 1992-2000.

    abstract::From 1 January 1992 to 31 December 2000, 27 milkborne general outbreaks of infectious intestinal disease (IID) were reported to the Public Health Laboratory Service (PHLS) Communicable Disease Surveillance Centre (CDSC). These outbreaks represented a fraction (2%) of all outbreaks of foodborne origin (N = 1774) report...

    journal_title:Epidemiology and infection

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:

    authors: Gillespie IA,Adak GK,O'Brien SJ,Bolton FJ

    更新日期:2003-06-01 00:00:00

  • Risk factor analysis, antimicrobial resistance and pathotyping of Escherichia coli associated with pre- and post-weaning piglet diarrhoea in organised farms, India.

    abstract::A cross-sectional study was conducted from 2014 to 2017 in 13 organised pig farms located in eight states of India (Northern, North-Eastern and Southern regions) to identify the risk factors, pathotype and antimicrobial resistance of Escherichia coli associated with pre- and post-weaning piglet diarrhoea. The data col...

    journal_title:Epidemiology and infection

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1017/S0950268819000591

    authors: VinodhKumar OR,Singh BR,Sinha DK,Pruthvishree BS,Tamta S,Dubal ZB,Karthikeyan R,Rupner RN,Malik YS

    更新日期:2019-01-01 00:00:00

  • A study of intranasally administered interferon A (rIFN-alpha 2A) for the seasonal prophylaxis of natural viral infections of the upper respiratory tract in healthy volunteers.

    abstract::The efficacy of interferon A (rIFN-alpha 2A), an Escherichia coli-derived interferon, in the prophylaxis of acute upper respiratory tract infection, was evaluated in a community-based double-blind placebo-controlled study in the Australian winter of 1985. The trial population of 412 healthy volunteers (190 males and 2...

    journal_title:Epidemiology and infection

    pub_type: 临床试验,杂志文章

    doi:10.1017/s0950268800029484

    authors: Tannock GA,Gillett SM,Gillett RS,Barry RD,Hensley MJ,Herd R,Reid AL,Saunders NA

    更新日期:1988-12-01 00:00:00

  • An overview of the epidemic of highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza virus in Egypt: epidemiology and control challenges.

    abstract::Emergence of the highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 virus in Egypt in mid-February 2006 caused significant losses for the poultry industry and constituted a potential threat to public health. Since late 2007, there has been increasing evidence that stable lineages of H5N1 viruses are being established in ch...

    journal_title:Epidemiology and infection

    pub_type: 杂志文章,评审

    doi:10.1017/S0950268810003122

    authors: Abdelwhab EM,Hafez HM

    更新日期:2011-05-01 00:00:00

  • Lessons from 40 years' surveillance of influenza in England and Wales.

    abstract::The influenza virus continues to pose a significant threat to public health throughout the world. Current avian influenza outbreaks in humans have heightened the need for improved surveillance and planning. Despite recent advances in the development of vaccines and antiviral drugs, seasonal epidemics of influenza cont...

    journal_title:Epidemiology and infection

    pub_type: 杂志文章,评审

    doi:10.1017/S0950268807009910

    authors: Fleming DM,Elliot AJ

    更新日期:2008-07-01 00:00:00

  • Updated modelling of the prevalence of immunodeficiency-associated long-term vaccine-derived poliovirus (iVDPV) excreters.

    abstract::Conditions and evidence continue to evolve related to the prediction of the prevalence of immunodeficiency-associated long-term vaccine-derived poliovirus (iVDPV) excreters, which affect assumptions related to forecasting risks and evaluating potential risk management options. Multiple recent reviews provided informat...

    journal_title:Epidemiology and infection

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1017/S095026881900181X

    authors: Kalkowska DA,Pallansch MA,Thompson KM

    更新日期:2019-10-24 00:00:00

  • Prevalence of antibodies to Brucella spp. in cattle, sheep, goats, horses and camels in the State of Eritrea; influence of husbandry systems.

    abstract::Samples from 2427 cattle, 661 goats, 104 sheep, 98 camels and 82 horses were screened for brucella infections by the Rose Bengal Test and positive reactors confirmed by the complement fixation test. In cattle, the highest individual seroprevalence was in dairy herds kept under the intensive husbandry system, with an i...

    journal_title:Epidemiology and infection

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1017/s0950268899004501

    authors: Omer MK,Skjerve E,Holstad G,Woldehiwet Z,Macmillan AP

    更新日期:2000-10-01 00:00:00

  • Emergence of multidrug-resistant Salmonella enterica serotype Typhi with decreased ciprofloxacin susceptibility in Bangladesh.

    abstract::During 1989-2002, we studied the antimicrobial resistance of 3928 blood culture isolates of Salmonella enterica serotype Typhi (S. Typhi) in Dhaka, Bangladesh. Overall 32% (1270) of the strains were multidrug-resistant (MDR, resistant to chloramphenicol, ampicillin and trimethoprim-sulphamethoxazole); first detected i...

    journal_title:Epidemiology and infection

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1017/S0950268805004759

    authors: Rahman M,Siddique AK,Shoma S,Rashid H,Salam MA,Ahmed QS,Nair GB,Breiman RF

    更新日期:2006-04-01 00:00:00

  • Esterase electrophoresis: a molecular tool for studying the epidemiology of Branhamella catarrhalis nosocomial infection.

    abstract::A new epidemiologic typing method based on electrophoresis of esterases had been developed for differentiating between clinical isolates of Branhamella catarrhalis. Twenty-two epidemiologically significant strains obtained from three Chest Units, a Paediatric Intensive Care Unit and a Paediatric Unit were compared wit...

    journal_title:Epidemiology and infection

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1017/s0950268800030946

    authors: Picard B,Goullet P,Denamur E,Suermondt G

    更新日期:1989-12-01 00:00:00

  • Enteric pathogens in tropical aquaria.

    abstract::A total of 100 tropical aquaria from six pet shops were sampled for the presence of Salmonella, Campylobacter and Aeromonas species. Eight fish tanks contained unusual serotypes of salmonella. None had been used to house terrapins. One hundred and three isolates of Aeromonas species were obtained from 98 tanks. One ta...

    journal_title:Epidemiology and infection

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1017/s0950268800066486

    authors: Sanyal D,Burge SH,Hutchings PG

    更新日期:1987-12-01 00:00:00

  • A meta-analysis of the association between obesity and COVID-19.

    abstract::Owing to limited data, we conducted a meta-analysis to re-evaluate the relationship between obesity and coronavirus-2019 (COVID-19). Literature published between 1 January 2020 and 22 August 2020 was comprehensively analysed, and RevMan3.5 was used for data analysis. A total of 50 studies, including data on 18 260 378...

    journal_title:Epidemiology and infection

    pub_type: 杂志文章,meta分析

    doi:10.1017/S0950268820003027

    authors: Yang J,Ma Z,Lei Y

    更新日期:2020-12-22 00:00:00

  • Rapid mortality transition of Pacific Islands in the 19th century.

    abstract::The depopulation of Pacific islands during the 16th to 19th centuries is a striking example of historical mass mortality due to infectious disease. Pacific Island populations have not been subject to such cataclysmic infectious disease mortality since. Here we explore the processes which could have given rise to this ...

    journal_title:Epidemiology and infection

    pub_type: 历史文章,杂志文章

    doi:10.1017/S0950268816001989

    authors: Penman BS,Gupta S,Shanks GD

    更新日期:2017-01-01 00:00:00

  • Bloodstream infection as a predictor for mortality in severe burn patients: an 11-year study.

    abstract::In this study we collected and analysed data of the severe burn patients at our institution over an 11-year period in order to shed light on the controversial role of bloodstream infection (BSI) as a predictive factor for mortality in this burn population. The factors examined were age, total body surface area, smoke ...

    journal_title:Epidemiology and infection

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1017/S0950268813002501

    authors: Egozi D,Hussein K,Filson S,Mashiach T,Ullmann Y,Raz-Pasteur A

    更新日期:2014-10-01 00:00:00

  • Molecular epidemiology of endemic Clostridium difficile infection.

    abstract::This is the first study to provide a comprehensive insight into the molecular epidemiology of endemic Clostridium difficile and particularly that associated with a recently recognized epidemic strain. We DNA fingerprinted all C. difficile isolates from the stools of patients with symptomatic antibiotic-associated diar...

    journal_title:Epidemiology and infection

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1017/s095026880100557x

    authors: Fawley WN,Wilcox MH

    更新日期:2001-06-01 00:00:00

  • Predicting treatment failure, death and drug resistance using a computed risk score among newly diagnosed TB patients in Tamaulipas, Mexico.

    abstract::The purpose of this study was to develop a method for identifying newly diagnosed tuberculosis (TB) patients at risk for TB adverse events in Tamaulipas, Mexico. Surveillance data between 2006 and 2013 (8431 subjects) was used to develop risk scores based on predictive modelling. The final models revealed that TB pati...

    journal_title:Epidemiology and infection

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1017/S0950268817001911

    authors: Abdelbary BE,Garcia-Viveros M,Ramirez-Oropesa H,Rahbar MH,Restrepo BI

    更新日期:2017-10-01 00:00:00

  • The multifaceted role of mobile technologies as a strategy to combat COVID-19 pandemic.

    abstract::The coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak in China rapidly spread throughout the world, becoming a threatening pandemic with unprecedented consequences. Mobile technologies have led to a revolution in health and their applicability in the context of COVID-19 is promising. In this commentary, we provide an overview of t...

    journal_title:Epidemiology and infection

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1017/S0950268820002435

    authors: Teixeira R,Doetsch J

    更新日期:2020-10-13 00:00:00

  • Improving inclusion and exclusion criteria in foodborne illness outbreak investigations: a case study.

    abstract::The practice of foodborne illness outbreak investigations has evolved, shifting away from large-scale community case-control studies towards more focused case exposure assessments and sub-cluster investigations to identify contaminated food sources. Criteria to include or exclude cases are established to increase the ...

    journal_title:Epidemiology and infection

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1017/S0950268820000138

    authors: Firestone MJ,Lee P,Hedberg CW

    更新日期:2020-02-07 00:00:00

  • Daily shedding dynamics of E. coli O157 in an Australian grass-fed beef herd.

    abstract::This study aimed to describe the diurnal shedding dynamics of Escherichia coli O157 in cattle managed on pasture. The purpose was to identify the value of a single measurement for predicting the shedding status on subsequent days. Over a 14-day period, 24 beef cows with known E. coli O157 shedding status were sampled ...

    journal_title:Epidemiology and infection

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1017/S0950268816001588

    authors: Lammers GA,Jordan D,McCONNEL CS,Heller J

    更新日期:2016-10-01 00:00:00

  • Modelling the transmission of airborne infections in enclosed spaces.

    abstract::The Wells-Riley equation for modelling airborne infection in indoor environments is incorporated into an SEIR epidemic model with a short incubation period to simulate the transmission dynamics of airborne infectious diseases in ventilated rooms. The model enables the effect of environmental factors such as the ventil...

    journal_title:Epidemiology and infection

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1017/S0950268806005875

    authors: Noakes CJ,Beggs CB,Sleigh PA,Kerr KG

    更新日期:2006-10-01 00:00:00

  • The relationships between the HIV test interval, demographic factors and HIV disease progression.

    abstract::Individuals developing an HIV seroconversion illness may experience rapid disease progression. Information on seroconversion illness is rarely collected in most cohort studies, thus the aim of this study was to assess the value of the HIV test interval (the time between last negative and first positive HIV tests) as a...

    journal_title:Epidemiology and infection

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1017/s0950268801005805

    authors:

    更新日期:2001-08-01 00:00:00