Abstract:
:Computer models can be useful in planning interventions against novel strains of influenza. However such models sometimes make unsubstantiated assumptions about the relative infectivity of asymptomatic and symptomatic cases, or conversely assume there is no impact at all. Using household-level data from known-index studies of virologically confirmed influenza A infection, the relationship between an individual's infectiousness and their symptoms was quantified using a discrete-generation transmission model and Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. It was found that the presence of particular respiratory symptoms in an index case does not influence transmission probabilities, with the exception of child-to-child transmission where the donor has phlegm or a phlegmy cough.
journal_name
Epidemiol Infectjournal_title
Epidemiology and infectionauthors
Wardell R,Prem K,Cowling BJ,Cook ARdoi
10.1017/S0950268816002740subject
Has Abstractpub_date
2017-03-01 00:00:00pages
723-727issue
4eissn
0950-2688issn
1469-4409pii
S0950268816002740journal_volume
145pub_type
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