Abstract:
:This study investigated the relationships between Legionnaires' disease (LD) incidence and weather in Glasgow, UK, by using advanced statistical methods. Using daily meteorological data and 78 LD cases with known exact date of onset, we fitted a series of Poisson log-linear regression models with explanatory variables for air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and year, and sine-cosine terms for within-year seasonal variation. Our initial model showed an association between LD incidence and 2-day lagged humidity (positive, P = 0·0236) and wind speed (negative, P = 0·033). However, after adjusting for year-by-year and seasonal variation in cases there were no significant associations with weather. We also used normal linear models to assess the importance of short-term, unseasonable weather values. The most significant association was between LD incidence and air temperature residual lagged by 1 day prior to onset (P = 0·0014). The contextual role of unseasonably high air temperatures is worthy of further investigation. Our methods and results have further advanced understanding of the role which weather plays in risk of LD infection.
journal_name
Epidemiol Infectjournal_title
Epidemiology and infectionauthors
Dunn CE,Rowlingson B,Bhopal RS,Diggle Pdoi
10.1017/S095026881200101Xsubject
Has Abstractpub_date
2013-04-01 00:00:00pages
687-96issue
4eissn
0950-2688issn
1469-4409pii
S095026881200101Xjournal_volume
141pub_type
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