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Validation of the european SCORE risk chart in the healthy middle-aged Japanese.

Abstract：

BACKGROUND AND AIMS:The European Society of Cardiology developed prediction models (SCORE) for low- and high-risk populations in the European countries. However, whether or not these models are valid in different ethnicities is unknown. We aimed to evaluate the performance of the low-risk SCORE model in the general Japanese population. METHODS:Healthy middle-aged Japanese participating in the NIPPON DATA80 cohort had been observed. The predicted 10-year cardiovascular death risk was calculated using the low-risk SCORE model for the overall population as well as for each gender individually. The model performance of the low-risk SCORE model was evaluated with the Harrel's c-statistics for discrimination and the Grønnesby and Borgan goodness-of-fit test for calibration. RESULTS:A total of 4842 participants aged 40-64 years old and 47,606 person-years were evaluated in our study. 203 (4.19%) died within the ten-years of follow-up and 44 (0.91%) CV deaths were observed. The low-risk SCORE model in the overall population had reasonable discrimination (c statistics 0.72, 95% CI 0.71-0.73) but poor calibration (R(2), 0.67, Chi-square value 6.15, p = 0.01). Discrimination was reasonable in both men (c statistics 0.71, 95% CI 0.69-0.73) and women (c statistics 0.71, 95% CI 0.70-0.73). However, calibration was poor in men (R(2), 0.22, Chi-square value 0.749, p = 0.38) compared to women (R(2), 0.96, Chi-square value 1.39, p = 0.24). CONCLUSIONS:Although the low-risk SCORE model performs reasonably well in women, the SCORE models generally overestimated the risk of cardiovascular death risk in the Japanese general population.

journal_name

Atherosclerosis

journal_title

Atherosclerosis

authors

Sawano M,Kohsaka S,Okamura T,Inohara T,Sugiyama D,Watanabe M,Nakamura Y,Higashiyama A,Kadota A,Okud N,Murakami Y,Ohkubo T,Fujiyoshi A,Miura K,Okayama A,Ueshima H,National Integrated Project for Prospective Observation of

doi

10.1016/j.atherosclerosis.2016.07.926

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

2016-09-01 00:00:00

pages

116-121

eissn

0021-9150

issn

1879-1484

pii

S0021-9150(16)31227-8

journal_volume

252

pub_type

杂志文章

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