Abstract:
:The rapid worldwide spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome demonstrated the potential threat an infectious disease poses in a closely interconnected and interdependent world. Here we introduce a probabilistic model that describes the worldwide spread of infectious diseases and demonstrate that a forecast of the geographical spread of epidemics is indeed possible. This model combines a stochastic local infection dynamics among individuals with stochastic transport in a worldwide network, taking into account national and international civil aviation traffic. Our simulations of the severe acute respiratory syndrome outbreak are in surprisingly good agreement with published case reports. We show that the high degree of predictability is caused by the strong heterogeneity of the network. Our model can be used to predict the worldwide spread of future infectious diseases and to identify endangered regions in advance. The performance of different control strategies is analyzed, and our simulations show that a quick and focused reaction is essential to inhibiting the global spread of epidemics.
journal_name
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S Aauthors
Hufnagel L,Brockmann D,Geisel Tdoi
10.1073/pnas.0308344101keywords:
subject
Has Abstractpub_date
2004-10-19 00:00:00pages
15124-9issue
42eissn
0027-8424issn
1091-6490pii
0308344101journal_volume
101pub_type
杂志文章abstract::Gaseous HCl generated from a variety of sources is ubiquitous in both outdoor and indoor air. Oxides of nitrogen (NO(y)) are also globally distributed, because NO formed in combustion processes is oxidized to NO(2), HNO(3), N(2)O(5) and a variety of other nitrogen oxides during transport. Deposition of HCl and NO(y) o...
journal_title:Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1073/pnas.0904195106
更新日期:2009-08-18 00:00:00
abstract::There is no effective treatment for the cardiomyopathy of the most common autosomal recessive ataxia, Friedreich's ataxia (FA). The identification of potentially toxic mitochondrial (MIT) iron (Fe) deposits in FA suggests that Fe plays a role in its pathogenesis. This study used the muscle creatine kinase conditional ...
journal_title:Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1073/pnas.0804261105
更新日期:2008-07-15 00:00:00
abstract::Acetyl-CoA synthase from Clostridium thermoaceticum (ACS(Ct)) is an alpha(2)beta(2) tetramer containing two novel Ni-X-Fe(4)S(4) active sites (the A and C clusters) and a standard Fe(4)S(4) cluster (the B cluster). The acsA and acsB genes encoding the enzyme were cloned into Escherichia coli strain JM109 and overexpre...
journal_title:Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1073/pnas.220404397
更新日期:2000-11-07 00:00:00
abstract::White matter stroke is a distinct stroke subtype, accounting for up to 25% of stroke and constituting the second leading cause of dementia. The biology of possible tissue repair after white matter stroke has not been determined. In a mouse stroke model, white matter ischemia causes focal damage and adjacent areas of a...
journal_title:Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1073/pnas.1615322113
更新日期:2016-12-27 00:00:00
abstract::Genetic and biochemical studies on enzymes known to be involved in regulating DNA supercoiling yield a complex spectrum of effects on the Escherichia coli SOS system. Previous studies indicated that only inhibition of DNA gyrase by antibiotics that act on the DNA gyrase A subunit results in turning on the E. coli SOS ...
journal_title:Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1073/pnas.80.9.2510
更新日期:1983-05-01 00:00:00
abstract::Experimental in vivo tumor models are essential for comprehending the dynamic process of human cancer progression, identifying therapeutic targets, and evaluating antitumor drugs. However, current rodent models are limited by high costs, long experimental duration, variability, restricted accessibility to the tumor, a...
journal_title:Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1073/pnas.0408622102
更新日期:2005-02-01 00:00:00
abstract::A general approach to high-throughput screening of enantiomeric excess (ee) and concentration was developed by using indicator displacement assays (IDAs), and the protocol was then applied to the vicinal diol hydrobenzoin. The method involves the sequential utilization of what we define herein as screening, training, ...
journal_title:Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1073/pnas.0809530106
更新日期:2009-06-30 00:00:00
abstract::Cytotoxic lymphocytes eliminate virus-infected and cancerous cells by immune recognition and killing through the perforin-granzyme pathway. Traditional killing assays measure average target cell lysis at fixed times and high effector:target ratios. Such assays obscure kinetic details that might reveal novel physiology...
journal_title:Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1073/pnas.1221312110
更新日期:2013-04-16 00:00:00
abstract::The multiwavelength anomalous diffraction (MAD) method for phase evaluation is now widely used in macromolecular crystallography. Successful MAD structure determinations have been carried out at the K or L absorption edges of a variety of elements. In this study, we investigate the anomalous scattering properties of u...
journal_title:Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1073/pnas.191003998
更新日期:2001-09-11 00:00:00
abstract::DNA polymerases from Xenopus laevis oocytes, unfertilized eggs, and kidney cells grown in culture have been characterized. The same three major DNA polymerase activities are present in all cell types examined. We attempt to relate the characteristics of amphibian enzymes to those of mammalian polymerases. ...
journal_title:Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1073/pnas.71.9.3706
更新日期:1974-09-01 00:00:00
abstract::The genetic basis for virulence in influenza virus is largely unknown. To explore the mutational basis for increased virulence in the lung, the H3N2 prototype clinical isolate, A/HK/1/68, was adapted to the mouse. Genomic sequencing provided the first demonstration, to our knowledge, that a group of 11 mutations can c...
journal_title:Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1073/pnas.111165798
更新日期:2001-06-05 00:00:00
abstract::The regulation of glycogen metabolism is critical for the maintenance of glucose and energy homeostasis in mammals. Glycogen synthase, the enzyme responsible for glycogen production, is regulated by multisite phosphorylation in yeast and mammals. We have previously identified PAS kinase as a physiological regulator of...
journal_title:Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1073/pnas.0508481102
更新日期:2005-11-15 00:00:00
abstract::Landscape-scale reconstructions of ancient environments within the cradle of humanity may reveal insights into the relationship between early hominins and the changing resources around them. Many studies of Olduvai Gorge during Pliocene-Pleistocene times have revealed the presence of precession-driven wet-dry cycles a...
journal_title:Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1073/pnas.2004532117
更新日期:2020-10-06 00:00:00
abstract::Aggregation of p53 is initiated by first-order processes that generate an aggregation-prone state with parallel pathways of major or partial unfolding. Here, we elaborate the mechanism and explore its consequences, beginning with the core domain and extending to the full-length p53 mutant Y220C. Production of large li...
journal_title:Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1073/pnas.1211557109
更新日期:2012-08-21 00:00:00
abstract::Heme is a common factor linking several metabolic perturbations in Alzheimer's disease (AD), including iron metabolism, mitochondrial complex IV, heme oxygenase, and bilirubin. Therefore, we determined whether heme metabolism was altered in temporal lobes obtained at autopsy from AD patients and age-matched nondemente...
journal_title:Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1073/pnas.0404349101
更新日期:2004-07-27 00:00:00
abstract::COVID-19 has emerged as one of the deadliest and most disruptive events in recent human history. Drawing from political science and psychological theories, we examine the effects of daily confirmed cases in a country on citizens' support for the political leader through the first 120 d of 2020. Using three unique data...
journal_title:Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1073/pnas.2009252117
更新日期:2020-10-13 00:00:00
abstract::Non-protein-coding RNA genes play an important role in various biological processes. How new RNA genes originated and whether this process is controlled by similar evolutionary mechanisms for the origin of protein-coding genes remains unclear. A young chimeric RNA gene that we term sphinx (spx) provides the first insi...
journal_title:Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1073/pnas.072066399
更新日期:2002-04-02 00:00:00
abstract::Figs (Ficus spp., Moraceae) and their pollinating wasps (Agaonidae, Chalcidoidea) constitute perhaps the most tightly integrated pollination mutualism that is known. Figs are characterized by extraordinarily high global and local species diversity. It has been proposed that the diversification of this mutualism has oc...
journal_title:Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
pub_type: 杂志文章,评审
doi:10.1073/pnas.0501840102
更新日期:2005-05-03 00:00:00
abstract::A 2.5-fold stimulation of cyclic AMP cellular content is measured 60 sec after addition of 100 nM synthetic ovine corticotropin-releasing factor (C-RF; corticoliberin) to rat anterior pituitary cells in culture. A maximal response of cyclic AMP content at 400% above control is observed between 2 and 30 min after addit...
journal_title:Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1073/pnas.79.11.3466
更新日期:1982-06-01 00:00:00
abstract::Unlike the dominant role of one class II invariant chain peptide (CLIP) in blocking MHC class II, comparative lipidomics analysis shows that human cluster of differentiation (CD) proteins CD1a, CD1b, CD1c, and CD1d bind lipids corresponding to hundreds of diverse accurate mass retention time values. Although most ions...
journal_title:Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1073/pnas.1112969108
更新日期:2011-11-29 00:00:00
abstract::Cells contain numerous enzymes that use molecular oxygen for their reactions. Often, their active sites are buried deeply inside the protein, which raises the question whether there are specific access channels guiding oxygen to the site of catalysis. Choosing 12/15-lipoxygenase as a typical example for such oxygen-de...
journal_title:Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1073/pnas.0702401104
更新日期:2007-08-14 00:00:00
abstract::The replication initiator protein of plasmid R6K preferentially repressed transcription initiated in vitro from the promoter of the initiator protein cistron. DNase I protection experiments revealed that the sequences in the region of the promoter recognized by the initiator protein partially overlapped the sequences ...
journal_title:Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1073/pnas.82.9.2574
更新日期:1985-05-01 00:00:00
abstract::At the neuromuscular junction, two motor neuron-derived signals have been implicated in the regulation of synaptogenesis. Neuregulin-1 is thought to induce transcription of acetylcholine receptor (AChR) genes in subsynaptic muscle nuclei by activating ErbB receptors. Neural agrin aggregates AChRs by activating the rec...
journal_title:Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1073/pnas.251291598
更新日期:2001-12-04 00:00:00
abstract::In vivo expression technology (IVET) has been used to identify > 100 Salmonella typhimurium genes that are specifically expressed during infection of BALB/c mice and/or murine cultured macrophages. Induction of these genes is shown to be required for survival in the animal under conditions of the IVET selection. One c...
journal_title:Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1073/pnas.94.3.934
更新日期:1997-02-04 00:00:00
abstract::T follicular helper (Tfh) and regulatory (Tfr) cells are terminally differentiated cells found in germinal centers (GCs), specialized secondary lymphoid organ structures dedicated to antibody production. As such, follicular T (Tfol) cells are supposed to be specific for immunizing antigens, which has been reported for...
journal_title:Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1073/pnas.1808594115
更新日期:2018-09-18 00:00:00
abstract::Heme oxygenase (decyclizing) [heme,hydrogen-donor:oxygen oxidoreductase (alpha-methene-oxidizing, hydroxylating), EC 1.14.99.3] is greatly induced in the kidney by the administration of nickel or tin. Manganese, when administered simultaneously with nickel or tin in an equimolar amount, substantially inhibited the ind...
journal_title:Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1073/pnas.76.10.5331
更新日期:1979-10-01 00:00:00
abstract::Assessing temporal variability in extreme rainfall events before the historical era is complicated by the sparsity of long-term "direct" storm proxies. Here we present a 2,200-y-long, accurate, and precisely dated record of cave flooding events from the northwest Australian tropics that we interpret, based on an integ...
journal_title:Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1073/pnas.1422270112
更新日期:2015-04-14 00:00:00
abstract::Whereas 234(92)U142 and other actinon nuclei have ground-state bands that indicate that each nucleus consists of a sphere and a single revolving cluster with constant composition and with only a steady increase in the moment of inertia with increase in J, the angular-momentum quantum number, many of the lanthanon grou...
journal_title:Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1073/pnas.88.3.820
更新日期:1991-02-01 00:00:00
abstract::Uncoupling protein 1 (UCP1) catalyzes fatty acid-activated, purine nucleotide-sensitive proton leak across the mitochondrial inner membrane of brown adipose tissue to produce heat, and could help combat obesity and metabolic disease in humans. Studies over the last 30 years conclude that the protein is a dimer, bindin...
journal_title:Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1073/pnas.1503833112
更新日期:2015-06-02 00:00:00
abstract::The complement system has evolved to annul pathogens, but its improper regulation is linked with diseases. Efficient regulation of the system is primarily provided by a family of proteins termed regulators of complement activation (RCA). The knowledge of precise structural determinants of RCA proteins critical for imp...
journal_title:Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1073/pnas.1506449112
更新日期:2015-10-13 00:00:00