Abstract:
:In 2016 the World Health Organization identified 21 countries that could eliminate malaria by 2020. Monitoring progress towards this goal requires tracking ongoing transmission. Here we develop methods that estimate individual reproduction numbers and their variation through time and space. Individual reproduction numbers, Rc, describe the state of transmission at a point in time and differ from mean reproduction numbers, which are averages of the number of people infected by a typical case. We assess elimination progress in El Salvador using data for confirmed cases of malaria from 2010 to 2016. Our results demonstrate that whilst the average number of secondary malaria cases was below one (0.61, 95% CI 0.55-0.65), individual reproduction numbers often exceeded one. We estimate a decline in Rc between 2010 and 2016. However we also show that if importation is maintained at the same rate, the country may not achieve malaria elimination by 2020.
journal_name
Nat Communjournal_title
Nature communicationsauthors
Routledge I,Chevéz JER,Cucunubá ZM,Rodriguez MG,Guinovart C,Gustafson KB,Schneider K,Walker PGT,Ghani AC,Bhatt Sdoi
10.1038/s41467-018-04577-ysubject
Has Abstractpub_date
2018-06-26 00:00:00pages
2476issue
1issn
2041-1723pii
10.1038/s41467-018-04577-yjournal_volume
9pub_type
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