Tornado outbreak variability follows Taylor's power law of fluctuation scaling and increases dramatically with severity.

Abstract:

:Tornadoes cause loss of life and damage to property each year in the United States and around the world. The largest impacts come from 'outbreaks' consisting of multiple tornadoes closely spaced in time. Here we find an upward trend in the annual mean number of tornadoes per US tornado outbreak for the period 1954-2014. Moreover, the variance of this quantity is increasing more than four times as fast as the mean. The mean and variance of the number of tornadoes per outbreak vary according to Taylor's power law of fluctuation scaling (TL), with parameters that are consistent with multiplicative growth. Tornado-related atmospheric proxies show similar power-law scaling and multiplicative growth. Path-length-integrated tornado outbreak intensity also follows TL, but with parameters consistent with sampling variability. The observed TL power-law scaling of outbreak severity means that extreme outbreaks are more frequent than would be expected if mean and variance were independent or linearly related.

journal_name

Nat Commun

journal_title

Nature communications

authors

Tippett MK,Cohen JE

doi

10.1038/ncomms10668

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

2016-02-29 00:00:00

pages

10668

issn

2041-1723

pii

ncomms10668

journal_volume

7

pub_type

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