Simulation model of lung cancer incidence related to smoking and radon daughter exposure.

Abstract:

:In recent years, the residential exposure to radon daughters has become a cause for concern as a contributing factor for lung cancer. In order to evaluate the population's risk consequences of different interpretations of the results of epidemiological studies in cohorts of uranium miners, a simulation model has been formulated. In the model, a defined population is generated as a set of individuals with a distribution of characteristics and exposures as they are known to exist in the defined population. The risk for each individual of being diagnosed with lung cancer in the next year can be determined, based on whatever interpretation is being evaluated. The risk can then be translated into an annual number of cases, and suitable controls can be identified as well. Both cases and controls have their individual risk factors of radon daughter exposure and history of cigarette smoking, and it is possible to subject these cases and controls to statistical analyses appropriate to case-control studies. This analysis can be used to see to what extent the original risk equation can be retrieved, and to what extent other risk formulations can be rejected. The simulation model can be used to evaluate conclusions drawn from prior epidemiological studies, as well as for evaluations of the effectiveness of designs for proposed studies.

journal_name

Int J Epidemiol

authors

Stolwijk JA,Canny PF

doi

10.1093/ije/19.supplement_1.s73

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

1990-01-01 00:00:00

pages

S73-8

eissn

0300-5771

issn

1464-3685

journal_volume

19 Suppl 1

pub_type

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