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Moderate disturbances accelerate forest transition dynamics under climate change in the temperate-boreal ecotone of eastern North America.

Abstract：

:Several temperate tree species are expected to migrate northward and colonize boreal forests in response to climate change. Tree migrations could lead to transitions in forest types, but these could be influenced by several non-climatic factors, such as disturbances and soil conditions. We analysed over 10,000 forest inventory plots, sampled from 1970 to 2018 in meridional Québec, Canada, to identify what environmental conditions promote or prevent regional-scale forest transitions. We used a continuous-time multi-state Markov model to quantify the probabilities of transitions between forest states (temperate, boreal, mixed, pioneer) as a function of climate (mean temperature and climate moisture index during the growing season), soil conditions (pH and drainage) and disturbances (severity levels of natural disturbances and logging). We further investigate how different disturbance types and severities impact forests' short-term transient dynamics and long-term equilibrium using properties of Markov transition matrices. The most common transitions observed during the study period were from mixed to temperate states, as well as from pioneer to boreal forests. In our study, transitions were mainly driven by natural and anthropogenic disturbances and secondarily by climate, whereas soil characteristics exerted relatively minor constraints. While major disturbances only promoted transitions to the pioneer state, moderate disturbances increased the probability of transition from mixed to temperate states. Long-term projections of our model under the current environmental conditions indicate that moderate disturbances would promote a northward shift of the temperate forest. Moreover, disturbances reduced turnover and convergence time for all transitions, thereby accelerating forest dynamics. Contrary to our expectation, mixed to temperate transitions were not driven by temperate tree recruitment but by mortality and growth. Overall, our results suggest that moderate disturbances could catalyse rapid forest transitions and accelerate broad-scale biome shifts.

journal_name

Glob Chang Biol

journal_title

Global change biology

authors

Brice MH,Vissault S,Vieira W,Gravel D,Legendre P,Fortin MJ

doi

10.1111/gcb.15143

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

2020-08-01 00:00:00

pages

4418-4435

issue

eissn

1354-1013

issn

1365-2486

journal_volume

pub_type

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Moderate disturbances accelerate forest transition dynamics under climate change in the temperate-boreal ecotone of eastern North America.