Abstract:
:Since 1990, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has produced five Assessment Reports (ARs), in which agriculture as the production of food for humans via crops and livestock have featured in one form or another. A constructed database of the ca. 2,100 cited experiments and simulations in the five ARs was analyzed with respect to impacts on yields via crop type, region, and whether adaptation was included. Quantitative data on impacts and adaptation in livestock farming have been extremely scarce in the ARs. The main conclusions from impact and adaptation are that crop yields will decline, but that responses have large statistical variation. Mitigation assessments in the ARs have used both bottom-up and top-down methods but need better to link emissions and their mitigation with food production and security. Relevant policy options have become broader in later ARs and included more of the social and nonproduction aspects of food security. Our overall conclusion is that agriculture and food security, which are two of the most central, critical, and imminent issues in climate change, have been dealt with an unfocussed and inconsistent manner between the IPCC five ARs. This is partly a result of not only agriculture spanning two IPCC working groups but also the very strong focus on projections from computer crop simulation modeling. For the future, we suggest a need to examine interactions between themes such as crop resource use efficiencies and to include all production and nonproduction aspects of food security in future roles for integrated assessment models.
journal_name
Glob Chang Bioljournal_title
Global change biologyauthors
Porter JR,Challinor AJ,Henriksen CB,Howden SM,Martre P,Smith Pdoi
10.1111/gcb.14700subject
Has Abstractpub_date
2019-08-01 00:00:00pages
2518-2529issue
8eissn
1354-1013issn
1365-2486journal_volume
25pub_type
杂志文章,评审abstract::Efficient management of biodiversity requires a forward-looking approach based on scenarios that explore biodiversity changes under future environmental conditions. A number of ecological models have been proposed over the last decades to develop these biodiversity scenarios. Novel modelling approaches with strong the...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.13272
更新日期:2016-07-01 00:00:00
abstract::The permafrost organic carbon (OC) stock is of global significance because of its large pool size and the potential positive feedback to climate warming. However, due to the lack of systematic field observations and appropriate upscaling methodologies, substantial uncertainties exist in the permafrost OC budget, which...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.13257
更新日期:2016-08-01 00:00:00
abstract::Cities are natural laboratories for studying vegetation responses to global environmental changes because of their climate, atmospheric, and biogeochemical conditions. However, few holistic studies have been conducted on the impact of urbanization on vegetation growth. We decomposed the overall impacts of urbanization...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.14317
更新日期:2018-09-01 00:00:00
abstract::Boreal lakes are major components of the global carbon cycle, partly because of sediment-bound heterotrophic microorganisms that decompose within-lake and terrestrially derived organic matter (t-OM). The ability for sediment bacteria to break down and alter t-OM may depend on environmental characteristics and communit...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.14391
更新日期:2018-11-01 00:00:00
abstract::Lakes at high altitude and latitude are typically unproductive ecosystems where external factors outweigh the relative importance of in-lake processes, making them ideal sentinels of climate change. Climate change is inducing upward vegetation shifts at high altitude and latitude regions that translate into changes in...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.13545
更新日期:2017-06-01 00:00:00
abstract::The purpose of this study was to evaluate 10 process-based terrestrial biosphere models that were used for the IPCC fifth Assessment Report. The simulated gross primary productivity (GPP) is compared with flux-tower-based estimates by Jung et al. [Journal of Geophysical Research 116 (2011) G00J07] (JU11). The net prim...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.12187
更新日期:2013-07-01 00:00:00
abstract::Soil CO2 concentrations and emissions from tropical forests are modulated seasonally by precipitation. However, subseasonal responses to meteorological events (e.g., storms, drought) are less well known. Here, we present the effects of meteorological variability on short-term (hours to months) dynamics of soil CO2 con...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.15194
更新日期:2020-09-01 00:00:00
abstract::We studied forest monitoring data collected at permanent plots in Italy over the period 2000-2009 to identify the possible impact of nitrogen (N) deposition on soil chemistry, tree nutrition and growth. Average N throughfall (N-NO3 +N-NH4 ) ranged between 4 and 29 kg ha(-1) yr(-1) , with Critical Loads (CLs) for nutr...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.12552
更新日期:2014-11-01 00:00:00
abstract::The rate at which biological diversity is altered on both land and in the sea, makes temporal community development a critical and fundamental part of understanding global change. With advancements in trait-based approaches, the focus on the impact of temporal change has shifted towards its potential effects on the fu...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.14552
更新日期:2018-12-20 00:00:00
abstract::The impact of climate change on crop yields has become widely measured; however, the linkages for winter wheat are less studied due to dramatic weather changes during the long growing season that are difficult to model. Recent research suggests significant reductions under warming. A potential adaptation strategy invo...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.13163
更新日期:2016-08-01 00:00:00
abstract::Recent findings indicate that atmospheric warming increases the persistence of weather patterns in the mid-latitudes, resulting in sequences of longer dry and wet periods compared to historic averages. The alternation of progressively longer dry and wet extremes could increasingly select for species with a broad envir...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.15501
更新日期:2020-12-23 00:00:00
abstract::Species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used to forecast changes in the spatial distributions of species and communities in response to climate change. However, spatial autocorrelation (SA) is rarely accounted for in these models, despite its ubiquity in broad-scale ecological data. While spatial autocorrelation...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.12598
更新日期:2014-08-01 00:00:00
abstract::High-altitude treelines are temperature-limited vegetation boundaries, but little quantitative evidence exists about the impact of climate change on treelines in untouched areas of Russia. Here, we estimated how forest-tundra ecotones have changed during the last century along the Ural mountains. In the South, North, ...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.12613
更新日期:2014-11-01 00:00:00
abstract::Coccolithophores are important oceanic primary producers not only in terms of photosynthesis but also because they produce calcite plates called coccoliths. Ongoing ocean acidification associated with changing seawater carbonate chemistry may impair calcification and other metabolic functions in coccolithophores. Whil...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.14065
更新日期:2018-07-01 00:00:00
abstract::The world's population is growing and demand for food, feed, fiber, and fuel is increasing, placing greater demand on land and its resources for crop production. We review previously published estimates of global scale cropland availability, discuss the underlying assumptions that lead to differences between estimates...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章,评审
doi:10.1111/gcb.12733
更新日期:2015-03-01 00:00:00
abstract::Halving carbon emissions from tropical deforestation by 2020 could help bring the international community closer to the agreed goal of <2 degree increase in global average temperature change and is consistent with a target set last year by the governments, corporations, indigenous peoples' organizations and non-govern...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.13153
更新日期:2016-04-01 00:00:00
abstract::Data from remote sensing and Eddy towers indicate that forests are not always net sinks for atmospheric CH4 . However, studies describing specific sources within forests and functional analysis of microorganisms on sites with CH4 turnover are scarce. Feather moss stands were considered to be net sinks for carbon dioxi...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.13764
更新日期:2017-11-01 00:00:00
abstract::Climate change can modify ecological interactions, but whether it can have cascading effects throughout ecological networks of multiple interacting species remains poorly studied. Climate-driven alterations in the intensity of plant-herbivore interactions may have particularly profound effects on the larger community ...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.12062
更新日期:2013-02-01 00:00:00
abstract::Globally, Phytophthora cinnamomi is listed as one of the 100 worst invasive alien species and active management is required to reduce impact and prevent spread in both horticulture and natural ecosystems. Conversely, there are regions thought to be suitable for the pathogen where no disease is observed. We developed a...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.13492
更新日期:2017-04-01 00:00:00
abstract::Migration of plant populations is a potential survival response to climate change that depends critically on seed dispersal. Biological and physical factors determine dispersal and migration of wind-dispersed species. Recent field and wind tunnel studies demonstrate biological adaptations that bias seed release toward...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.12173
更新日期:2013-06-01 00:00:00
abstract::Output from an earth system model is paired with a size-based food web model to investigate the effects of climate change on the abundance of large fish over the 21st century. The earth system model, forced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special report on emission scenario A2, combines a coupl...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.12076
更新日期:2013-03-01 00:00:00
abstract::Sustainable intensification of agriculture is one of the main strategies to provide global food security. However, its implementation raises enormous political, technological, and social challenges. Meeting these challenges will require, among other things, accurate information on the spatial and temporal patterns of ...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章,评审
doi:10.1111/gcb.13314
更新日期:2016-08-01 00:00:00
abstract::Increasing direct human pressures on the marine environment, coupled with climate-driven changes, is a concern to marine ecosystems globally. This requires the development and monitoring of ecosystem indicators for effective management and adaptation planning. Plankton lifeforms (broad functional groups) are sensitive...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.15066
更新日期:2020-06-01 00:00:00
abstract::Arctic warming is resulting in reduced snow cover and increased shrub growth, both of which have been associated with altered land surface-atmospheric feedback processes involving sensible heat flux, ground heat flux and biogeochemical cycling. Using field measurements, we show that two common Arctic shrub species (Be...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.13297
更新日期:2016-11-01 00:00:00
abstract::Many migrant bird species that breed in the Northern Hemisphere show advancement in spring arrival dates. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index is one of the climatic variables that have been most often investigated and shown to be correlated with these changes in spring arrival. Although the NAO is often claimed...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.14023
更新日期:2018-04-01 00:00:00
abstract::Current knowledge of phenological shifts in Palearctic bird migration is largely based on data collected on migrants at their breeding grounds; little is known about the phenology of these birds at their nonbreeding grounds, and even less about that of intra-African migrants. Because climate change patterns are not un...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.12857
更新日期:2015-06-01 00:00:00
abstract::Frost events during the active growth period of plants can cause extensive frost damage with tremendous economic losses and dramatic ecological consequences. A common assumption is that climate warming may bring along a reduction in the frequency and severity of frost damage to vegetation. On the other hand, it has be...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.14479
更新日期:2019-01-01 00:00:00
abstract::To avoid submergence during sea-level rise, coastal wetlands build soil surfaces vertically through accumulation of inorganic sediment and organic matter. At climatic boundaries where mangroves are expanding and replacing salt marsh, wetland capacity to respond to sea-level rise may change. To compare how well mangrov...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.13945
更新日期:2018-03-01 00:00:00
abstract::Air temperatures in the arid western United States are predicted to increase over the next century. These increases will likely impact the distribution of plant species, particularly dioecious species that show a spatial segregation of the sexes across broad resource gradients. On the basis of spatial segregation patt...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.12230
更新日期:2013-11-01 00:00:00
abstract::We show that because of methodological improvements, the human modification map detects higher levels of land modification and is more accurate than the human footprint map across the gradient of modification globally. While we agree that protecting the world's least modified lands or wildlands is essential for conser...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 评论,信件
doi:10.1111/gcb.14900
更新日期:2020-02-01 00:00:00