Prognostic nomogram and score to predict renal survival of patients with biopsy-proven diabetic nephropathy.

Abstract:

AIMS:Both clinical and pathogenetic markers for accurate prediction of end-stage renal disease in diabetic nephropathy (DN) are lacking. This study aimed to establish an effective prognostic nomogram and a score for renal survival (RS) in biopsy-proven DN. METHODS:Analyses were derived from 110 DN patients who underwent renal biopsy at China-Japan Friendship Hospital between January 2006 and May 2018 with DN as the only glomerular disease diagnosis. The prognostic ability of 34 baseline clinicopathologic parameters was evaluated using univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses. The predictive accuracy and discriminative ability of the final model were measured using the calibration curve and concordance index (C-index). Internal validation of the model was assessed using bootstrap resampling. RESULTS:Urinary proteinuria excretion, stages of chronic kidney disease, glomerular hyalinosis, and extracapillary hypercellularity were independent prognostic factors for RS, and all were selected into the nomogram. The calibration curve for the probability of survival showed good agreement between the prediction by nomogram and actual observation. The C-index for predicting survival was 0.79 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.72-0.86). A high C-index value of 0.76 indicated good internal validation. The prognostic score had the potential to delineate two prognosis groups with median RS of 24 and 70 months, respectively. CONCLUSIONS:The proposed nomogram and score provide a useful individualized risk estimate of renal prognosis in patients with DN.

authors

Jiang S,Yu T,Zhang Z,Fang J,Wang Y,Yang Y,Liu L,Zou G,Gao H,Zhuo L,Li W

doi

10.1016/j.diabres.2019.107809

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

2019-09-01 00:00:00

pages

107809

eissn

0168-8227

issn

1872-8227

pii

S0168-8227(19)30944-1

journal_volume

155

pub_type

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