Prognostic indicators and generation of novel risk equations for estimation of 10-year and 20-year mortality following acute coronary syndrome.

Abstract:

OBJECTIVES:Although risk assessment is an integral part of management, there are currently no risk calculators of long-term mortality after acute coronary syndrome (ACS). The aim was to provide risk equations for 10-year and 20-year mortality following ACS. METHODS:Patients hospitalised with ACS from December 1990 to June 1994 were recruited and followed up through 31 December 2012. RESULTS:The study followed 881 patients for 10 years and 712 patients for 20 years. Using Cox regression analysis, 20-year all-cause mortality was associated with myocardial infarction (MI) in the index admission, age and diabetes mellitus (DM). Twenty-year cardiovascular disease (CVD) and cardiac mortality were both associated with MI in the index admission, age, DM and female gender. 10-year all-cause mortality was associated with age and total cholesterol levels; age, DM and total cholesterol levels were found to be independent predictors of 10-year CVD and cardiac mortality. Risk equations were consequently generated for 10-year and 20-year cardiac, cardiovascular and all-cause mortality, with age and DM emerging as the strongest and most consistent predictors of all outcomes studied. CONCLUSIONS:Novel risk equations for all-cause, cardiovascular and cardiac mortality at 10 and 20 years were generated using follow-up data in a large patient population.

journal_name

Postgrad Med J

authors

Magri CJ,Debono R,Calleja N,Galea J,Fava S

doi

10.1136/postgradmedj-2016-134129

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

2017-05-01 00:00:00

pages

245-249

issue

1099

eissn

0032-5473

issn

1469-0756

pii

postgradmedj-2016-134129

journal_volume

93

pub_type

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