Abstract:
:The impact of climate change on dispersal processes is largely ignored in risk assessments for crop diseases, as inoculum is generally assumed to be ubiquitous and nonlimiting. We suggest that consideration of the impact of climate change on the connectivity of crops for inoculum transmission may provide additional explanatory and predictive power in disease risk assessments, leading to improved recommendations for agricultural adaptation to climate change. In this study, a crop-growth model was combined with aerobiological models and a newly developed infection risk model to provide a framework for quantifying the impact of future climates on the risk of disease occurrence and spread. The integrated model uses standard meteorological variables and can be easily adapted to various crop pathosystems characterized by airborne inoculum. In a case study, the framework was used with data defining the spatial distribution of potato crops in Scotland and spatially coherent, probabilistic climate change data to project the future connectivity of crop distributions for Phytophthora infestans (causal agent of potato late blight) inoculum and the subsequent risk of infection. Projections and control recommendations are provided for multiple combinations of potato cultivar and CO2 emissions scenario, and temporal and spatial averaging schemes. Overall, we found that relative to current climatic conditions, the risk of late blight will increase in Scotland during the first half of the potato growing season and decrease during the second half. To guide adaptation strategies, we also investigated the potential impact of climate change-driven shifts in the cropping season. Advancing the start of the potato growing season by 1 month proved to be an effective strategy from both an agronomic and late blight management perspective.
journal_name
Glob Chang Bioljournal_title
Global change biologyauthors
Skelsey P,Cooke DE,Lynott JS,Lees AKdoi
10.1111/gcb.13368subject
Has Abstractpub_date
2016-11-01 00:00:00pages
3724-3738issue
11eissn
1354-1013issn
1365-2486journal_volume
22pub_type
杂志文章abstract::The permafrost organic carbon (OC) stock is of global significance because of its large pool size and the potential positive feedback to climate warming. However, due to the lack of systematic field observations and appropriate upscaling methodologies, substantial uncertainties exist in the permafrost OC budget, which...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.13257
更新日期:2016-08-01 00:00:00
abstract::It is critical to accurately estimate carbon (C) turnover time as it dominates the uncertainty in ecosystem C sinks and their response to future climate change. In the absence of direct observations of ecosystem C losses, C turnover times are commonly estimated under the steady state assumption (SSA), which has been a...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.14547
更新日期:2019-03-01 00:00:00
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journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.12552
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journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.15013
更新日期:2020-01-24 00:00:00
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journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.12775
更新日期:2015-02-01 00:00:00
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journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.12854
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journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.12356
更新日期:2013-12-01 00:00:00
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journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.13545
更新日期:2017-06-01 00:00:00
abstract::Volatile nitrogen oxides (N2 O, NO, NO2 , HONO, …) can negatively impact climate, air quality, and human health. Using soils collected from temperate forests across the eastern United States, we show microbial communities involved in nitrogen (N) cycling are structured, in large part, by the composition of overstory t...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.15439
更新日期:2020-12-15 00:00:00
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journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.14833
更新日期:2020-03-01 00:00:00
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journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.12391
更新日期:2014-02-01 00:00:00
abstract::Autumn phenology plays a critical role in regulating climate-biosphere interactions. However, the climatic drivers of autumn phenology remain unclear. In this study, we applied four methods to estimate the date of the end of the growing season (EOS) across China's temperate biomes based on a 30-year normalized differe...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.13081
更新日期:2016-02-01 00:00:00
abstract::Developing conservation strategies for threatened species increasingly requires understanding vulnerabilities to climate change, in terms of both demographic sensitivities to climatic and other environmental factors, and exposure to variability in those factors over time and space. We conducted a range-wide, spatially...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.12510
更新日期:2014-07-01 00:00:00
abstract::Realistic representation of land carbon sink in climate models is vital for predicting carbon climate feedbacks in a changing world. Although soil erosion that removes land organic carbon has increased substantially since the onset of agriculture, it is rarely included in the current generation of climate models. Usin...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.14982
更新日期:2020-01-08 00:00:00
abstract::The acclimation capacity of leading edge tree populations is crucially important in a warming climate. Theoretical considerations suggest that adaptation through genetic change is needed, but this may be a slow process. Both positive and catastrophic outcomes have been predicted, while empirical studies have lagged be...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.13956
更新日期:2018-02-01 00:00:00
abstract::The greenhouse gas (GHG) balance of European grasslands (EU-28 plus Norway and Switzerland), including CO2 , CH4 and N2 O, is estimated using the new process-based biogeochemical model ORCHIDEE-GM over the period 1961-2010. The model includes the following: (1) a mechanistic representation of the spatial distribution ...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.12998
更新日期:2015-10-01 00:00:00
abstract::There is evidence that anthropogenic nitrogen (N) deposition enhances carbon (C) sequestration in boreal forest soils. However, it is unclear how free-living saprotrophs (bacteria and fungi, SAP) and ectomycorrhizal (EM) fungi responses to N addition impact soil C dynamics. Our aim was to investigate how SAP and EM co...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.14722
更新日期:2019-09-01 00:00:00
abstract::Frost events during the active growth period of plants can cause extensive frost damage with tremendous economic losses and dramatic ecological consequences. A common assumption is that climate warming may bring along a reduction in the frequency and severity of frost damage to vegetation. On the other hand, it has be...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.14479
更新日期:2019-01-01 00:00:00
abstract::Continental margins are disproportionally important for global primary production, fisheries and CO2 uptake. However, across the Northeast Atlantic shelves, there has been an ongoing summertime decline of key biota-large diatoms, dinoflagellates and copepods-that traditionally fuel higher tropic levels such as fish, s...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.15161
更新日期:2020-10-01 00:00:00
abstract::To realistically simulate climate feedbacks from the land surface to the atmosphere, models must replicate the responses of plants to environmental changes. Several processes, operating at various scales, cause the responses of photosynthesis and plant respiration to temperature and CO2 to change over time of exposure...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章,评审
doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2012.02797.x
更新日期:2013-01-01 00:00:00
abstract::Global increase in drought occurrences threatens the stability of terrestrial ecosystem functioning. Evergreen broadleaf forests (EBFs) keep leaves throughout the year, and therefore could experience higher drought risks than other biomes. However, the recent temporal variability of global vegetation productivity or l...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.14748
更新日期:2019-10-01 00:00:00
abstract::Climate variation has been linked to historical and predicted future distributions and dynamics of wildlife populations. However, demographic mechanisms underlying these changes remain poorly understood. Here, we assessed variation and trends in climate (annual snowfall and spring temperature anomalies) and avian demo...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.14538
更新日期:2019-03-01 00:00:00
abstract::A number of studies have demonstrated the ecological sorting of C3 and C4 grasses along temperature and moisture gradients. However, previous studies of C3 and C4 grass biogeography have often inadvertently compared species in different and relatively unrelated lineages, which are associated with different environment...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.12037
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journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.14799
更新日期:2019-12-01 00:00:00
abstract::Pollinators provide crucial ecosystem services that underpin to wild plant reproduction and yields of insect-pollinated crops. Understanding the relative impacts of anthropogenic pressures and climate on the structure of plant-pollinator interaction networks is vital considering ongoing global change and pollinator de...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.15474
更新日期:2020-12-03 00:00:00
abstract::High-altitude treelines are temperature-limited vegetation boundaries, but little quantitative evidence exists about the impact of climate change on treelines in untouched areas of Russia. Here, we estimated how forest-tundra ecotones have changed during the last century along the Ural mountains. In the South, North, ...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.12613
更新日期:2014-11-01 00:00:00
abstract::White light-emitting diodes (LEDs) are rapidly replacing conventional outdoor lighting technologies around the world. Despite rising concerns over their impact on the environment and human health, the flexibility of LEDs has been advocated as a means of mitigating the ecological impacts of globally widespread outdoor ...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.13615
更新日期:2017-07-01 00:00:00
abstract::The net flux of CO2 exchanged with the atmosphere following grassland-related land-use change (LUC) depends on the subsequent temporal dynamics of soil organic carbon (SOC). Yet, the magnitude and timing of these dynamics are still unclear. We compiled a global data set of 836 paired-sites to quantify temporal SOC cha...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.14328
更新日期:2018-10-01 00:00:00
abstract::Sustainable intensification of agriculture is one of the main strategies to provide global food security. However, its implementation raises enormous political, technological, and social challenges. Meeting these challenges will require, among other things, accurate information on the spatial and temporal patterns of ...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章,评审
doi:10.1111/gcb.13314
更新日期:2016-08-01 00:00:00
abstract::Mechanistic photosynthesis models are at the heart of terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) simulating the daily, monthly, annual and decadal rhythms of carbon assimilation (A). These models are founded on robust mathematical hypotheses that describe how A responds to changes in light and atmospheric CO2 concentration. ...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.15366
更新日期:2021-02-01 00:00:00