Abstract:
:Developing conservation strategies for threatened species increasingly requires understanding vulnerabilities to climate change, in terms of both demographic sensitivities to climatic and other environmental factors, and exposure to variability in those factors over time and space. We conducted a range-wide, spatially explicit climate change vulnerability assessment for Eastern Massasauga (Sistrurus catenatus), a declining endemic species in a region showing strong environmental change. Using active season and winter adult survival estimates derived from 17 data sets throughout the species' range, we identified demographic sensitivities to winter drought, maximum precipitation during the summer, and the proportion of the surrounding landscape dominated by agricultural and urban land cover. Each of these factors was negatively associated with active season adult survival rates in binomial generalized linear models. We then used these relationships to back-cast adult survival with dynamic climate variables from 1950 to 2008 using spatially explicit demographic models. Demographic models for 189 population locations predicted known extant and extirpated populations well (AUC = 0.75), and models based on climate and land cover variables were superior to models incorporating either of those effects independently. These results suggest that increasing frequencies and severities of extreme events, including drought and flooding, have been important drivers of the long-term spatiotemporal variation in a demographic rate. We provide evidence that this variation reflects nonadaptive sensitivity to climatic stressors, which are contributing to long-term demographic decline and range contraction for a species of high-conservation concern. Range-wide demographic modeling facilitated an understanding of spatial shifts in climatic suitability and exposure, allowing the identification of important climate refugia for a dispersal-limited species. Climate change vulnerability assessment provides a framework for linking demographic and distributional dynamics to environmental change, and can thereby provide unique information for conservation planning and management.
journal_name
Glob Chang Bioljournal_title
Global change biologyauthors
Pomara LY,LeDee OE,Martin KJ,Zuckerberg Bdoi
10.1111/gcb.12510subject
Has Abstractpub_date
2014-07-01 00:00:00pages
2087-99issue
7eissn
1354-1013issn
1365-2486journal_volume
20pub_type
杂志文章abstract::Climate warming can restructure lake food webs if trophic levels differ in their thermal responses, but evidence for these changes and their underlying mechanisms remain scarce in nature. Here we document how warming lake temperatures by up to 2°C, rather than changes in trophic state or fishing effort, have restructu...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
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更新日期:2020-12-01 00:00:00
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journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
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journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
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journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
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journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
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更新日期:2018-12-01 00:00:00
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pub_type: 杂志文章
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journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
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journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 评论,信件
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journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.13963
更新日期:2018-03-01 00:00:00
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journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.12053
更新日期:2013-02-01 00:00:00
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journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.14479
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pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.13368
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journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.14955
更新日期:2020-03-01 00:00:00
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journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.12364
更新日期:2014-04-01 00:00:00
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journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.14766
更新日期:2019-12-01 00:00:00
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journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.14454
更新日期:2018-12-01 00:00:00
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journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.15385
更新日期:2020-12-01 00:00:00
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journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.12685
更新日期:2015-02-01 00:00:00
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journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.13260
更新日期:2016-08-01 00:00:00
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journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.12315
更新日期:2013-11-01 00:00:00
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journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.14567
更新日期:2019-01-06 00:00:00
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pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.15273
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