Abstract:
:Rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations are placing spatially divergent stresses on the world's tropical coral reefs through increasing ocean surface temperatures and ocean acidification. We show how these two stressors combine to alter the global habitat suitability for shallow coral reef ecosystems, using statistical Bioclimatic Envelope Models rather than basing projections on any a priori assumptions of physiological tolerances or fixed thresholds. We apply two different modeling approaches (Maximum Entropy and Boosted Regression Trees) with two levels of complexity (one a simplified and reduced environmental variable version of the other). Our models project a marked temperature-driven decline in habitat suitability for many of the most significant and bio-diverse tropical coral regions, particularly in the central Indo-Pacific. This is accompanied by a temperature-driven poleward range expansion of favorable conditions accelerating up to 40-70 km per decade by 2070. We find that ocean acidification is less influential for determining future habitat suitability than warming, and its deleterious effects are centered evenly in both hemispheres between 5° and 20° latitude. Contrary to expectations, the combined impact of ocean surface temperature rise and acidification leads to little, if any, degradation in future habitat suitability across much of the Atlantic and areas currently considered 'marginal' for tropical corals, such as the eastern Equatorial Pacific. These results are consistent with fossil evidence of range expansions during past warm periods. In addition, the simplified models are particularly sensitive to short-term temperature variations and their projections correlate well with reported locations of bleaching events. Our approach offers new insights into the relative impact of two global environmental pressures associated with rising atmospheric CO2 on potential future habitats, but greater understanding of past and current controls on coral reef ecosystems is essential to their conservation and management under a changing climate.
journal_name
Glob Chang Bioljournal_title
Global change biologyauthors
Couce E,Ridgwell A,Hendy EJdoi
10.1111/gcb.12335subject
Has Abstractpub_date
2013-12-01 00:00:00pages
3592-606issue
12eissn
1354-1013issn
1365-2486journal_volume
19pub_type
杂志文章abstract::Kelp are main iodine accumulators in the ocean, and their growth and photosynthesis are likely to benefit from elevated seawater CO2 levels due to ocean acidification. However, there are currently no data on the effects of ocean acidification on iodine metabolism in kelp. As key primary producers in coastal ecosystems...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.14467
更新日期:2019-02-01 00:00:00
abstract::Forest regeneration following disturbance is a key ecological process, influencing forest structure and function, species assemblages, and ecosystem-climate interactions. Climate change may alter forest recovery dynamics or even prevent recovery, triggering feedbacks to the climate system, altering regional biodiversi...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章,评审
doi:10.1111/gcb.12194
更新日期:2013-07-01 00:00:00
abstract::Biological invasions are one of the biggest threats to global biodiversity. Marine artificial structures are proliferating worldwide and provide a haven for marine invasive species. Such structures disrupt local hydrodynamics, which can lead to the formation of oxygen-depleted microsites. The extent to which native fa...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.13668
更新日期:2017-06-01 00:00:00
abstract::Observed ecological responses to climate change are highly individualistic across species and locations, and understanding the drivers of this variability is essential for management and conservation efforts. While it is clear that differences in exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity all contribute to heterogen...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.15008
更新日期:2020-05-01 00:00:00
abstract::Several temperate tree species are expected to migrate northward and colonize boreal forests in response to climate change. Tree migrations could lead to transitions in forest types, but these could be influenced by several non-climatic factors, such as disturbances and soil conditions. We analysed over 10,000 forest ...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.15143
更新日期:2020-08-01 00:00:00
abstract::Climate warming has been linked to an apparent general decrease in body sizes of ectotherms, both across and within taxa, especially in aquatic systems. Smaller body size in warmer geographical regions has also been widely observed. Since body size is a fundamental determinant of many biological attributes, climate-wa...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.12285
更新日期:2013-11-01 00:00:00
abstract::Increases in noise-generating human activities since the Industrial Revolution have changed the acoustic landscape of many terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. Anthropogenic noise is now recognized as a major pollutant of international concern, and recent studies have demonstrated impacts on, for instance, hearing thre...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.12685
更新日期:2015-02-01 00:00:00
abstract::The impact of climate change on crop yields has become widely measured; however, the linkages for winter wheat are less studied due to dramatic weather changes during the long growing season that are difficult to model. Recent research suggests significant reductions under warming. A potential adaptation strategy invo...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.13163
更新日期:2016-08-01 00:00:00
abstract::Coastal wetlands are among the most productive and carbon-rich ecosystems on Earth. Long-term carbon storage in coastal wetlands occurs primarily belowground as soil organic matter (SOM). In addition to serving as a carbon sink, SOM influences wetland ecosystem structure, function, and stability. To anticipate and mit...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.14376
更新日期:2018-11-01 00:00:00
abstract::Maps of continental-scale land cover are utilized by a range of diverse users but whilst a range of products exist that describe present and recent land cover in Europe, there are currently no datasets that describe past variations over long time-scales. User groups with an interest in past land cover include the clim...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.12776
更新日期:2015-03-01 00:00:00
abstract::Efficient management of biodiversity requires a forward-looking approach based on scenarios that explore biodiversity changes under future environmental conditions. A number of ecological models have been proposed over the last decades to develop these biodiversity scenarios. Novel modelling approaches with strong the...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.13272
更新日期:2016-07-01 00:00:00
abstract::Controlled experiments have shown that global changes decouple the biogeochemical cycles of carbon (C), nitrogen (N), and phosphorus (P), resulting in shifting stoichiometry that lies at the core of ecosystem functioning. However, the response of soil stoichiometry to global changes in natural ecosystems with differen...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.13939
更新日期:2018-03-01 00:00:00
abstract::Coherent timing of agricultural expansion, fertilizer application, atmospheric nutrient deposition, and accelerated global warming is expected to promote synchronous fertilization of regional surface waters and coherent development of algal blooms and lake eutrophication. While broad-scale cyanobacterial expansion is ...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.13076
更新日期:2016-01-01 00:00:00
abstract::Fungal decomposition of soil organic matter depends on soil nitrogen (N) availability. This ecosystem process is being jeopardized by changes in N inputs that have resulted from a tripling of atmospheric N deposition in the last century. Soil fungi are impacted by atmospheric N deposition due to higher N availability,...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.15444
更新日期:2020-11-07 00:00:00
abstract::Many studies of individual sites have revealed biotic changes consistent with climate warming (e.g., upward elevational distribution shifts), but our understanding of the tremendous variation among studies in the magnitude of such biotic changes is minimal. In this study, we resurveyed forest vegetation plots 40 years...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.14568
更新日期:2019-05-01 00:00:00
abstract::Salt marshes can play a vital role in mitigating the effects of global environmental change by dissipating incident storm wave energy and, through accretion, tracking increasing water depths consequent upon sea level rise. Atmospheric CO2 concentrations and nutrient availability are two key variables that can affect t...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.13396
更新日期:2017-02-01 00:00:00
abstract::Simultaneously with warming climate, other climatic and environmental factors are also changing. Here, we investigated for the first time the effects of elevated temperature, increased ultraviolet-B (UVB) radiation, fertilization and all combinations of these on the growth, secondary chemistry and needle structure of ...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.12464
更新日期:2014-07-01 00:00:00
abstract::Free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE) allows open-air elevation of [CO2 ] without altering the microclimate. Its scale uniquely supports simultaneous study from physiology and yield to soil processes and disease. In 2005 we summarized results of then 28 published observations by meta-analysis. Subsequent studies have combine...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章,评审
doi:10.1111/gcb.15375
更新日期:2021-01-01 00:00:00
abstract::Landscape fire is a key but poorly understood component of the global carbon cycle. Predicting biomass consumption by fire at large spatial scales is essential to understanding carbon dynamics and hence how fire management can reduce greenhouse gas emissions and increase ecosystem carbon storage. An Australia-wide fie...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.14460
更新日期:2019-01-01 00:00:00
abstract::Predicting the biological effects of climate change presents major challenges due to the interplay of potential biotic and abiotic mechanisms. Climate change can create unexpected outcomes by altering species interactions, and uncertainty over the ability of species to develop in situ tolerance or track environmental ...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.14717
更新日期:2019-10-01 00:00:00
abstract::Output from an earth system model is paired with a size-based food web model to investigate the effects of climate change on the abundance of large fish over the 21st century. The earth system model, forced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special report on emission scenario A2, combines a coupl...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.12076
更新日期:2013-03-01 00:00:00
abstract::As the effects of the Global Climate Changes on the costal regions of Central and South Americas advance, there is proportionally little research being made to understand such impacts. This commentary puts forward a series of propositions of strategies to improve performance of Central and South American science and p...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.12186
更新日期:2013-07-01 00:00:00
abstract::Global biodiversity is under high and rising anthropogenic pressure. Yet, how the taxonomic, phylogenetic, and functional facets of biodiversity are affected by different threats over time is unclear. This is particularly true for the two main drivers of the current biodiversity crisis: habitat destruction and overexp...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.15418
更新日期:2021-02-01 00:00:00
abstract::In macroalgal-dominated systems, herbivory is a major driver in controlling ecosystem structure. However, the role of altered plant-herbivore interactions and effects of changes to trophic control under global change are poorly understood. This is because both macroalgae and grazers themselves may be affected by globa...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.14370
更新日期:2018-10-01 00:00:00
abstract::Soil CO2 efflux (Fsoil ) is the largest source of carbon from forests and reflects primary productivity as well as how carbon is allocated within forest ecosystems. Through early stages of stand development, both elevated [CO2] and availability of soil nitrogen (N; sum of mineralization, deposition, and fixation) have...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.12414
更新日期:2014-04-01 00:00:00
abstract::Climate change can modify ecological interactions, but whether it can have cascading effects throughout ecological networks of multiple interacting species remains poorly studied. Climate-driven alterations in the intensity of plant-herbivore interactions may have particularly profound effects on the larger community ...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.12062
更新日期:2013-02-01 00:00:00
abstract::A growing body of literature seeks to explain variation in range shifts using species' ecological and life-history traits, with expectations that shifts should be greater in species with greater dispersal ability, reproductive potential, and ecological generalization. Despite strong theoretical support for species' tr...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章,meta分析,评审
doi:10.1111/gcb.13736
更新日期:2017-10-01 00:00:00
abstract::Changes in peak photosynthesis timing (PPT) could substantially change the seasonality of the terrestrial carbon cycle. Spring PPT in dry regions has been documented for some individual plant species on a stand scale, but both the spatio-temporal pattern of shifting PPT on a continental scale and its determinants rema...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.13224
更新日期:2016-08-01 00:00:00
abstract::The maximum rate of carboxylation (Vcmax ) is an essential leaf trait determining the photosynthetic capacity of plants. Existing approaches for estimating Vcmax at large scale mainly rely on empirical relationships with proxies such as leaf nitrogen/chlorophyll content or hyperspectral reflectance, or on complicated ...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.15276
更新日期:2020-07-12 00:00:00
abstract::The rising trend in concentrations of ground-level ozone (O3 ) - a common air pollutant and phytotoxin - currently being experienced in some world regions represents a threat to agricultural yield. Soybean (Glycine max (L.) Merr.) is an O3 -sensitive crop species and is experiencing increasing global demand as a dieta...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.13318
更新日期:2016-09-01 00:00:00