Multiple axes of ecological vulnerability to climate change.

Abstract:

:Observed ecological responses to climate change are highly individualistic across species and locations, and understanding the drivers of this variability is essential for management and conservation efforts. While it is clear that differences in exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity all contribute to heterogeneity in climate change vulnerability, predicting these features at macroecological scales remains a critical challenge. We explore multiple drivers of heterogeneous vulnerability across the distributions of 96 vegetation types of the ecologically diverse western US, using data on observed climate trends from 1948 to 2014 to highlight emerging patterns of change. We ask three novel questions about factors potentially shaping vulnerability across the region: (a) How does sensitivity to different climate variables vary geographically and across vegetation classes? (b) How do multivariate climate exposure patterns interact with these sensitivities to shape vulnerability patterns? (c) How different are these vulnerability patterns according to three widely implemented vulnerability paradigms-niche novelty (decline in modeled suitability), temporal novelty (standardized anomaly), and spatial novelty (inbound climate velocity)-each of which uses a distinct frame of reference to quantify climate departure? We propose that considering these three novelty paradigms in combination could help improve our understanding and prediction of heterogeneous climate change responses, and we discuss the distinct climate adaptation strategies connected with different combinations of high and low novelty across the three metrics. Our results reveal a diverse mosaic of climate change vulnerability signatures across the region's plant communities. Each of the above factors contributes strongly to this heterogeneity: climate variable sensitivity exhibits clear patterns across vegetation types, multivariate climate change data reveal highly diverse exposure signatures across locations, and the three novelty paradigms diverge widely in their climate change vulnerability predictions. Together, these results shed light on potential drivers of individualistic climate change responses and may help to inform effective management strategies.

journal_name

Glob Chang Biol

journal_title

Global change biology

authors

Kling MM,Auer SL,Comer PJ,Ackerly DD,Hamilton H

doi

10.1111/gcb.15008

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

2020-05-01 00:00:00

pages

2798-2813

issue

5

eissn

1354-1013

issn

1365-2486

journal_volume

26

pub_type

杂志文章
  • Eight decades of sampling reveal a contemporary novel fish assemblage in coastal nursery habitats.

    abstract::In order to adequately monitor biodiversity trends through time and their responses to natural or anthropogenic impacts, researchers require long time series that are often unavailable. This general lack of datasets that are several decades or longer makes establishing a background or baseline of diversity metrics dif...

    journal_title:Global change biology

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1111/gcb.13047

    authors: Barceló C,Ciannelli L,Olsen EM,Johannessen T,Knutsen H

    更新日期:2016-03-01 00:00:00

  • Adapting management to a changing world: Warm temperatures, dry soil, and interannual variability limit restoration success of a dominant woody shrub in temperate drylands.

    abstract::Restoration and rehabilitation of native vegetation in dryland ecosystems, which encompass over 40% of terrestrial ecosystems, is a common challenge that continues to grow as wildfire and biological invasions transform dryland plant communities. The difficulty in part stems from low and variable precipitation, combine...

    journal_title:Global change biology

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1111/gcb.14374

    authors: Shriver RK,Andrews CM,Pilliod DS,Arkle RS,Welty JL,Germino MJ,Duniway MC,Pyke DA,Bradford JB

    更新日期:2018-10-01 00:00:00

  • The role of ungulates in nowadays temperate forests. A response to Fløjgaard et al. (DOI:10.1111/gcb.14029).

    abstract::In Boulanger et al. (2018), we investigated the effects of ungulates on forest plant diversity. By suggesting a revisit of our conclusions regarding ecosystem dynamics since the late Pleistocene, Fløjgaard et al. (2018) came to the conclusion that moderate grazing in forest should be a conservation target. Since major...

    journal_title:Global change biology

    pub_type: 评论,信件

    doi:10.1111/gcb.14122

    authors: Boulanger V,Dupouey JL,Archaux F,Badeau V,Baltzinger C,Chevalier R,Corcket E,Dumas Y,Forgeard F,Mårell A,Montpied P,Paillet Y,Saïd S,Ulrich E

    更新日期:2018-06-01 00:00:00

  • Vegetation growth enhancement in urban environments of the Conterminous United States.

    abstract::Cities are natural laboratories for studying vegetation responses to global environmental changes because of their climate, atmospheric, and biogeochemical conditions. However, few holistic studies have been conducted on the impact of urbanization on vegetation growth. We decomposed the overall impacts of urbanization...

    journal_title:Global change biology

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1111/gcb.14317

    authors: Jia W,Zhao S,Liu S

    更新日期:2018-09-01 00:00:00

  • Human pressures predict species' geographic range size better than biological traits.

    abstract::Geographic range size is the manifestation of complex interactions between intrinsic species traits and extrinsic environmental conditions. It is also a fundamental ecological attribute of species and a key extinction risk correlate. Past research has primarily focused on the role of biological and environmental predi...

    journal_title:Global change biology

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1111/gcb.12834

    authors: Di Marco M,Santini L

    更新日期:2015-06-01 00:00:00

  • Decrease in water clarity of the southern and central North Sea during the 20th century.

    abstract::Light in the marine environment is a key environmental variable coupling physics to marine biogeochemistry and ecology. Weak light penetration reduces light available for photosynthesis, changing energy fluxes through the marine food web. Based on published and unpublished data, this study shows that the central and s...

    journal_title:Global change biology

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1111/gcb.12854

    authors: Capuzzo E,Stephens D,Silva T,Barry J,Forster RM

    更新日期:2015-06-01 00:00:00

  • Impacts of climate and land use on N2 O and CH4 fluxes from tropical ecosystems in the Mt. Kilimanjaro region, Tanzania.

    abstract::In this study, we quantify the impacts of climate and land use on soil N2 O and CH4 fluxes from tropical forest, agroforest, arable and savanna ecosystems in Africa. To do so, we measured greenhouse gases (GHG) fluxes from 12 different ecosystems along climate and land-use gradients at Mt. Kilimanjaro, combining long-...

    journal_title:Global change biology

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1111/gcb.13944

    authors: Gütlein A,Gerschlauer F,Kikoti I,Kiese R

    更新日期:2018-03-01 00:00:00

  • How much land-based greenhouse gas mitigation can be achieved without compromising food security and environmental goals?

    abstract::Feeding 9-10 billion people by 2050 and preventing dangerous climate change are two of the greatest challenges facing humanity. Both challenges must be met while reducing the impact of land management on ecosystem services that deliver vital goods and services, and support human health and well-being. Few studies to d...

    journal_title:Global change biology

    pub_type: 杂志文章,评审

    doi:10.1111/gcb.12160

    authors: Smith P,Haberl H,Popp A,Erb KH,Lauk C,Harper R,Tubiello FN,de Siqueira Pinto A,Jafari M,Sohi S,Masera O,Böttcher H,Berndes G,Bustamante M,Ahammad H,Clark H,Dong H,Elsiddig EA,Mbow C,Ravindranath NH,Rice CW,Roble

    更新日期:2013-08-01 00:00:00

  • Losing ground: past history and future fate of Arctic small mammals in a changing climate.

    abstract::According to the IPCC, the global average temperature is likely to increase by 1.4-5.8 °C over the period from 1990 to 2100. In Polar regions, the magnitude of such climatic changes is even larger than in temperate and tropical biomes. This amplified response is particularly worrisome given that the so-far moderate wa...

    journal_title:Global change biology

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1111/gcb.12157

    authors: Prost S,Guralnick RP,Waltari E,Fedorov VB,Kuzmina E,Smirnov N,van Kolfschoten T,Hofreiter M,Vrieling K

    更新日期:2013-06-01 00:00:00

  • Testing for changes in biomass dynamics in large-scale forest datasets.

    abstract::Tropical forest responses to climate and atmospheric change are critical to the future of the global carbon budget. Recent studies have reported increases in estimated above-ground biomass (EAGB) stocks, productivity, and mortality in old-growth tropical forests. These increases could reflect a shift in forest functio...

    journal_title:Global change biology

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1111/gcb.14833

    authors: Rutishauser E,Wright SJ,Condit R,Hubbell SP,Davies SJ,Muller-Landau HC

    更新日期:2020-03-01 00:00:00

  • Dramatic changes in a phytoplankton community in response to local and global pressures: a 24-year survey of the river Loire (France).

    abstract::The impact of climate change and of other anthropogenic pressures on the structure and composition of phytoplankton communities of large European rivers remains poorly documented. Here we report the findings of a study of the changes in the phytoplankton community of the middle segment of the river Loire over the past...

    journal_title:Global change biology

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1111/gcb.12139

    authors: Larroudé S,Massei N,Reyes-Marchant P,Delattre C,Humbert JF

    更新日期:2013-05-01 00:00:00

  • Landscape dynamics in Mediterranean oak forests under global change: understanding the role of anthropogenic and environmental drivers across forest types.

    abstract::The Mediterranean region is projected to be extremely vulnerable to global change, which will affect the distribution of typical forest types such as native oak forests. However, our understanding of Mediterranean oak forest responses to future conditions is still very limited by the lack of knowledge on oak forest dy...

    journal_title:Global change biology

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1111/gcb.13487

    authors: Acácio V,Dias FS,Catry FX,Rocha M,Moreira F

    更新日期:2017-03-01 00:00:00

  • Land-sparing agriculture sustains higher levels of avian functional diversity than land sharing.

    abstract::The ecological impacts of meeting rising demands for food production can potentially be mitigated by two competing land-use strategies: off-setting natural habitats through intensification of existing farmland (land sparing), or elevating biodiversity within the agricultural matrix via the integration of "wildlife-fri...

    journal_title:Global change biology

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1111/gcb.14601

    authors: Cannon PG,Gilroy JJ,Tobias JA,Anderson A,Haugaasen T,Edwards DP

    更新日期:2019-05-01 00:00:00

  • Annual plants change in size over a century of observations.

    abstract::Studies have documented changes in animal body sizes over the last century, but very little is known about changes in plant sizes, even though reduced plant productivity is potentially responsible for declines in size of other organisms. Here, I ask whether warming trends in the Great Basin have affected plant size by...

    journal_title:Global change biology

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1111/gcb.12208

    authors: Leger EA

    更新日期:2013-07-01 00:00:00

  • Climate warming restructures an aquatic food web over 28 years.

    abstract::Climate warming can restructure lake food webs if trophic levels differ in their thermal responses, but evidence for these changes and their underlying mechanisms remain scarce in nature. Here we document how warming lake temperatures by up to 2°C, rather than changes in trophic state or fishing effort, have restructu...

    journal_title:Global change biology

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1111/gcb.15347

    authors: Tanentzap AJ,Morabito G,Volta P,Rogora M,Yan ND,Manca M

    更新日期:2020-12-01 00:00:00

  • Bridging the gap between omics and earth system science to better understand how environmental change impacts marine microbes.

    abstract::The advent of genomic-, transcriptomic- and proteomic-based approaches has revolutionized our ability to describe marine microbial communities, including biogeography, metabolic potential and diversity, mechanisms of adaptation, and phylogeny and evolutionary history. New interdisciplinary approaches are needed to mov...

    journal_title:Global change biology

    pub_type: 杂志文章,评审

    doi:10.1111/gcb.12983

    authors: Mock T,Daines SJ,Geider R,Collins S,Metodiev M,Millar AJ,Moulton V,Lenton TM

    更新日期:2016-01-01 00:00:00

  • Coralline algal skeletal mineralogy affects grazer impacts.

    abstract::In macroalgal-dominated systems, herbivory is a major driver in controlling ecosystem structure. However, the role of altered plant-herbivore interactions and effects of changes to trophic control under global change are poorly understood. This is because both macroalgae and grazers themselves may be affected by globa...

    journal_title:Global change biology

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1111/gcb.14370

    authors: McCoy SJ,Kamenos NA

    更新日期:2018-10-01 00:00:00

  • Vegetation cover-another dominant factor in determining global water resources in forested regions.

    abstract::Forested catchments provide critically important water resources. Due to dramatic global forest change over the past decades, the importance of including forest or vegetation change in the assessment of water resources under climate change has been highly recognized by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC);...

    journal_title:Global change biology

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1111/gcb.13983

    authors: Wei X,Li Q,Zhang M,Giles-Hansen K,Liu W,Fan H,Wang Y,Zhou G,Piao S,Liu S

    更新日期:2018-02-01 00:00:00

  • Effects of mesophyll conductance on vegetation responses to elevated CO2 concentrations in a land surface model.

    abstract::Mesophyll conductance (gm ) is known to affect plant photosynthesis. However, gm is rarely explicitly considered in land surface models (LSMs), with the consequence that its role in ecosystem and large-scale carbon and water fluxes is poorly understood. In particular, the different magnitudes of gm across plant functi...

    journal_title:Global change biology

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1111/gcb.14604

    authors: Knauer J,Zaehle S,De Kauwe MG,Bahar NHA,Evans JR,Medlyn BE,Reichstein M,Werner C

    更新日期:2019-05-01 00:00:00

  • How disturbance, competition, and dispersal interact to prevent tree range boundaries from keeping pace with climate change.

    abstract::Climate change is expected to cause geographic shifts in tree species' ranges, but such shifts may not keep pace with climate changes because seed dispersal distances are often limited and competition-induced changes in community composition can be relatively slow. Disturbances may speed changes in community compositi...

    journal_title:Global change biology

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1111/gcb.13847

    authors: Liang Y,Duveneck MJ,Gustafson EJ,Serra-Diaz JM,Thompson JR

    更新日期:2018-01-01 00:00:00

  • Long-term increase in snow depth leads to compositional changes in arctic ectomycorrhizal fungal communities.

    abstract::Many arctic ecological processes are regulated by soil temperature that is tightly interconnected with snow cover distribution and persistence. Recently, various climate-induced changes have been observed in arctic tundra ecosystems, e.g. shrub expansion, resulting in reduction in albedo and greater C fixation in abov...

    journal_title:Global change biology

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1111/gcb.13294

    authors: Morgado LN,Semenova TA,Welker JM,Walker MD,Smets E,Geml J

    更新日期:2016-09-01 00:00:00

  • "Got rats?" Global environmental costs of thirst for milk include acute biodiversity impacts linked to dairy feed production.

    abstract::Rodents damaging alfalfa crops typically destined for export to booming Eastern markets often cause economical losses to farmers, but management interventions attempting to control rodents (i.e., use of rodenticides) are themselves damaging to biodiversity. These damages resonate beyond dairy feed producing regions th...

    journal_title:Global change biology

    pub_type: 信件

    doi:10.1111/gcb.14170

    authors: Luque-Larena JJ,Mougeot F,Arroyo B,Lambin X

    更新日期:2018-07-01 00:00:00

  • CO2 emissions from an undrained tropical peatland: Interacting influences of temperature, shading and water table depth.

    abstract::Emission of CO2 from tropical peatlands is an important component of the global carbon budget. Over days to months, these fluxes are largely controlled by water table depth. However, the diurnal cycle is less well understood, in part, because most measurements have been collected daily at midday. We used an automated ...

    journal_title:Global change biology

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1111/gcb.14702

    authors: Hoyt AM,Gandois L,Eri J,Kai FM,Harvey CF,Cobb AR

    更新日期:2019-09-01 00:00:00

  • Rock glaciers in crystalline catchments: Hidden permafrost-related threats to alpine headwater lakes.

    abstract::A global warming-induced transition from glacial to periglacial processes has been identified in mountainous regions around the world. Degrading permafrost in pristine periglacial environments can produce acid rock drainage (ARD) and cause severe ecological damage in areas underlain by sulfide-bearing bedrock. Limnolo...

    journal_title:Global change biology

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1111/gcb.13985

    authors: Ilyashuk BP,Ilyashuk EA,Psenner R,Tessadri R,Koinig KA

    更新日期:2018-04-01 00:00:00

  • Marine heatwaves reveal coral reef zones susceptible to bleaching in the Red Sea.

    abstract::As the Earth's temperature continues to rise, coral bleaching events become more frequent. Some of the most affected reef ecosystems are located in poorly monitored waters, and thus, the extent of the damage is unknown. We propose the use of marine heatwaves (MHWs) as a new approach for detecting coral reef zones susc...

    journal_title:Global change biology

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1111/gcb.14652

    authors: Genevier LGC,Jamil T,Raitsos DE,Krokos G,Hoteit I

    更新日期:2019-07-01 00:00:00

  • The timing of autumn senescence is affected by the timing of spring phenology: implications for predictive models.

    abstract::Autumn senescence regulates multiple aspects of ecosystem function, along with associated feedbacks to the climate system. Despite its importance, current understanding of the drivers of senescence is limited, leading to a large spread in predictions of how the timing of senescence, and thus the length of the growing ...

    journal_title:Global change biology

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1111/gcb.12890

    authors: Keenan TF,Richardson AD

    更新日期:2015-07-01 00:00:00

  • Biogeographic variation in temperature sensitivity of decomposition in forest soils.

    abstract::Determining soil carbon (C) responses to rising temperature is critical for projections of the feedbacks between terrestrial ecosystems, C cycle, and climate change. However, the direction and magnitude of this feedback remain highly uncertain due largely to our limited understanding of the spatial heterogeneity of so...

    journal_title:Global change biology

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1111/gcb.14838

    authors: Li J,Nie M,Pendall E,Reich PB,Pei J,Noh NJ,Zhu T,Li B,Fang C

    更新日期:2020-03-01 00:00:00

  • Incorporating spatial autocorrelation into species distribution models alters forecasts of climate-mediated range shifts.

    abstract::Species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used to forecast changes in the spatial distributions of species and communities in response to climate change. However, spatial autocorrelation (SA) is rarely accounted for in these models, despite its ubiquity in broad-scale ecological data. While spatial autocorrelation...

    journal_title:Global change biology

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1111/gcb.12598

    authors: Crase B,Liedloff A,Vesk PA,Fukuda Y,Wintle BA

    更新日期:2014-08-01 00:00:00

  • Synergistic and antagonistic effects of land use and non-native species on community responses to climate change.

    abstract::Climate change, land-use change and introductions of non-native species are key determinants of biodiversity change worldwide. However, the extent to which anthropogenic drivers of environmental change interact to affect biological communities is largely unknown, especially over longer time periods. Here, we show that...

    journal_title:Global change biology

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1111/gcb.14765

    authors: Auffret AG,Thomas CD

    更新日期:2019-12-01 00:00:00

  • Decade of experimental permafrost thaw reduces turnover of young carbon and increases losses of old carbon, without affecting the net carbon balance.

    abstract::Thicker snowpacks and their insulation effects cause winter-warming and invoke thaw of permafrost ecosystems. Temperature-dependent decomposition of previously frozen carbon (C) is currently considered one of the strongest feedbacks between the Arctic and the climate system, but the direction and magnitude of the net ...

    journal_title:Global change biology

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1111/gcb.15283

    authors: Olid C,Klaminder J,Monteux S,Johansson M,Dorrepaal E

    更新日期:2020-10-01 00:00:00