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The impact of rising CO2 and acclimation on the response of US forests to global warming.

Abstract：

:The response of forests to climate change depends in part on whether the photosynthetic benefit from increased atmospheric CO2 (∆Ca = future minus historic CO2) compensates for increased physiological stresses from higher temperature (∆T). We predicted the outcome of these competing responses by using optimization theory and a mechanistic model of tree water transport and photosynthesis. We simulated current and future productivity, stress, and mortality in mature monospecific stands with soil, species, and climate sampled from 20 continental US locations. We modeled stands with and without acclimation to ∆Ca and ∆T, where acclimated forests adjusted leaf area, photosynthetic capacity, and stand density to maximize productivity while avoiding stress. Without acclimation, the ∆Ca-driven boost in net primary productivity (NPP) was compromised by ∆T-driven stress and mortality associated with vascular failure. With acclimation, the ∆Ca-driven boost in NPP and stand biomass (C storage) was accentuated for cooler futures but negated for warmer futures by a ∆T-driven reduction in NPP and biomass. Thus, hotter futures reduced forest biomass through either mortality or acclimation. Forest outcomes depended on whether projected climatic ∆Ca/∆T ratios were above or below physiological thresholds that neutralized the negative impacts of warming. Critically, if forests do not acclimate, the ∆Ca/∆T must be above ca 89 ppm⋅°C-1 to avoid chronic stress, a threshold met by 55% of climate projections. If forests do acclimate, the ∆Ca/∆T must rise above ca 67 ppm⋅°C-1 for NPP and biomass to increase, a lower threshold met by 71% of projections.

journal_name

Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A

journal_title

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

authors

Sperry JS,Venturas MD,Todd HN,Trugman AT,Anderegg WRL,Wang Y,Tai X

doi

10.1073/pnas.1913072116

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

2019-12-17 00:00:00

pages

25734-25744

issue

51

eissn

0027-8424

issn

1091-6490

pii

1913072116

journal_volume

116

pub_type

杂志文章

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