Abstract：
:We take a critical look at the meaning behind the number 87% given to 25-year-old Sophie, a BRCA1 and BRCA2 carrier. Sophie has been told she has an 87% chance of getting breast cancer. She is contemplating a preventive double mastectomy after genetic counseling and her physician's advice. Some 92% of British general practitioners are in favor of prophylactic mastectomy as a treatment option for women similar to Sophie. The treatment decision results, to a very large extent, from the size of the number (87%) alone. The central argument of this study is that physicians, their patients, and the public need a much better understanding on what is meant by probability estimates of 0.87. The figure on its own does not tell us much, and we need to be very cautious in its interpretation. It is important to know that the very same genetic and statistical models, and observed data, resulting in a verdict of an 87% lifetime chance of getting breast cancer, based on BRCA1, BRCA2, and familial information, simultaneously show Sophie to have a greater than 99% chance of surviving beyond the next 5 years cancer free. If she succeeds-the chances are overwhelmingly in her favor-then, given that fact, her chances of surviving a further 5 years are once again greater than 98%. Her chances of not dying due to breast cancer over the next 20 years are greater than 97%, a percentage that changes little if instead of 20 we write the number 30. In a word, although the diagnosis of a faulty BRAC gene may be a disappointment, there is no immediate peril and no need for undue alarm. Sophie, and her primary care providers, can carefully consider her options without feeling that they are under any kind of acute pressure. Whatever the threat, it is not an imminent one.
journal_name
Ann Epidemioljournal_title
Annals of epidemiologyauthors
O'Quigley Jdoi
10.1016/j.annepidem.2017.09.005subject
Has Abstractpub_date
2017-10-01 00:00:00pages
672-676issue
10eissn
1047-2797issn
1873-2585pii
S1047-2797(17)30101-1journal_volume
27pub_type
杂志文章,评审abstract：PURPOSE:Population-based cancer incidence rates of the corpus uteri, cervix uteri, and ovaries are underestimated if they fail to remove women not at risk for developing the cancers from the denominator in the race calculation. This study compares incidence rates among selected racial groups for these cancers before an...
journal_title：Annals of epidemiology
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1016/j.annepidem.2006.06.001
更新日期：2006-12-01 00:00:00
abstract：PURPOSE:To examine mental health indicators, in aggregate and stratified by sex, among a population-based sample of U.S. military veterans. METHODS:Data are from veteran who completed the Veterans Health Module (VHM) of the 2011 and 2012 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (n = 10,406). VHM items included lifet...
journal_title：Annals of epidemiology
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1016/j.annepidem.2016.06.009
更新日期：2016-08-01 00:00:00
abstract：PURPOSE:In several biomedical studies, one or more exposures of interest may be subject to nonrandom missingness because of the failure of the measurement assay at levels below its limit of detection. This issue is commonly encountered in studies of the metabolome using tandem mass spectrometry-based technologies. Owin...
journal_title：Annals of epidemiology
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1016/j.annepidem.2019.07.014
更新日期：2019-10-01 00:00:00
abstract：PURPOSE:To explore agreement on cancer occurrence and site among Medicare Part A, Massachusetts Cancer Registry, and death certificates. METHODS:We linked these data sources with the cohort of the population-based East Boston Senior Health Project, a component of the National Institute on Aging's Established Populatio...
journal_title：Annals of epidemiology
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1016/s1047-2797(98)00031-3
更新日期：1999-01-01 00:00:00
abstract：PURPOSE:Diabetes increases the risk of ischemic heart disease (IHD). Stringent control of diabetes does not reliably reduce cardiovascular events. Some global regions, such as East Asia, have low mortality rates from IHD and high rates of diabetes. We hypothesized that some aspects of liver function might underlie this...
journal_title：Annals of epidemiology
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1016/j.annepidem.2012.08.003
更新日期：2012-11-01 00:00:00
abstract：PURPOSE:The aim of the study was to assess the relationship between age of arrival of male pediatric immigrant populations in Israel and their risk for subsequent high-weight morbidity at adolescence. METHODS:The study analyzed a pooled cross section of 89,744 foreign-born male Jewish study participants, who were born...
journal_title：Annals of epidemiology
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1016/j.annepidem.2014.02.012
更新日期：2014-06-01 00:00:00
abstract：PURPOSE:The purpose of this study is to map type 2 diabetes susceptibility genes in West African ancestral populations of African-Americans, through an international collaboration between West African and US investigators. DESIGN AND METHODS:Affected sib-pairs (ASP) along with unaffected spouse controls are being enro...
journal_title：Annals of epidemiology
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1016/s1047-2797(00)00180-0
更新日期：2001-01-01 00:00:00
abstract：PURPOSE:To examine the association betweenantineoplastic drug (AD) handling and risk of miscarriage. METHODS:Nurses' Health Study-3 participants self-reported AD administration and engineering controls (ECs) and personal protective equipment (PPE) use at baseline. We estimated the hazard ratio (HR) of miscarriage in r...
journal_title：Annals of epidemiology
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1016/j.annepidem.2020.09.003
更新日期：2021-01-01 00:00:00
abstract：PURPOSE:The Multiple Risk Factor Intervention Trial (MRFIT), a randomized clinical trial for the primary prevention of coronary heart disease, enrolled 12,866 men (including 8194 cigarette smokers) aged 35-57 years at 22 clinical centers across the United States. Participants were randomized either to special intervent...
journal_title：Annals of epidemiology
pub_type： 临床试验,杂志文章,多中心研究,随机对照试验
doi：10.1016/s1047-2797(96)00123-8
更新日期：1997-02-01 00:00:00
abstract：PURPOSE:Socioeconomic status (SES) as a risk factor for mortality in type 1 diabetes (T1D) has not been adequately studied prospectively. METHODS:Complete clinical and SES (income, education, occupation) data were available for 317 T1D participants in the Pittsburgh Epidemiology of Diabetes Complications Study within ...
journal_title：Annals of epidemiology
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1016/j.annepidem.2011.02.011
更新日期：2011-05-01 00:00:00
abstract：PURPOSE:To assess ethnic differences in the risk of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) after a disaster, and to assess the factors that may explain these differences. METHODS:We used data from a representative survey of the New York City metropolitan area (n=2,616) conducted 6 months after September 11, 2001. Linea...
journal_title：Annals of epidemiology
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1016/j.annepidem.2004.01.006
更新日期：2004-09-01 00:00:00
abstract：PURPOSE:Maternal asthma increases adverse neonatal respiratory outcomes, and pollution may further increase risk. Air quality in relation to neonatal respiratory health has not been studied. METHODS:Transient tachypnea of the newborn (TTN), asphyxia, and respiratory distress syndrome (RDS) were identified using medica...
journal_title：Annals of epidemiology
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1016/j.annepidem.2018.06.003
更新日期：2018-09-01 00:00:00
abstract：PURPOSE:We analyzed the changes in the body mass index (BMI) distribution for urban Australian adults between 1980 and 2007. METHODS:We used data from participants of six consecutive Australian nation-wide surveys with measured weight and height between 1980 and 2007. We used quantile regression to estimate mean BMI (...
journal_title：Annals of epidemiology
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1016/j.annepidem.2014.10.008
更新日期：2015-01-01 00:00:00
abstract：PURPOSE:To investigate the distribution of mesothelioma in Flanders using Bayesian disease mapping models that account for both an excess of zeros and overdispersion. METHODS:The numbers of newly diagnosed mesothelioma cases within all Flemish municipalities between 1999 and 2008 were obtained from the Belgian Cancer ...
journal_title：Annals of epidemiology
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1016/j.annepidem.2016.10.006
更新日期：2017-01-01 00:00:00
abstract：PURPOSE:Studies of ethnic density and health in the United States have documented poorer health outcomes among black individuals living in black compared with nonblack neighborhoods, but few studies have considered the identities of the populations in nonblack neighborhoods. METHODS:New York City birth records from 19...
journal_title：Annals of epidemiology
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1016/j.annepidem.2011.04.008
更新日期：2011-08-01 00:00:00
abstract：PURPOSE:Studies of middle-aged and particularly older-aged adults found that those with higher scores on tests of IQ (cognitive function) had lower rates of later mortality. Interpretation of such findings potentially is hampered by the problem of reverse causality: such somatic diseases as diabetes or hypertension, co...
journal_title：Annals of epidemiology
pub_type： 杂志文章,评审
doi：10.1016/j.annepidem.2006.07.010
更新日期：2007-04-01 00:00:00
abstract：PURPOSE:Acute cardiovascular events such as heart attack and stroke in commercial pilots have been a concern to flight safety. The purpose of this study was to examine the association of body mass index (BMI) with cardiovascular disease in commercial pilots. METHODS:We followed from 1987 to 1997 a cohort of 3019 male ...
journal_title：Annals of epidemiology
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1016/j.annepidem.2004.08.002
更新日期：2005-04-01 00:00:00
abstract：PURPOSE:Research examining the association between crime and health outcomes has been hampered by a lack of reliable small-area (e.g., census tract or census block group) crime data. Our objective is to assess the accuracy of synthetically estimated crime indices for use in health research by using preterm birth as a c...
journal_title：Annals of epidemiology
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1016/j.annepidem.2020.11.008
更新日期：2020-12-05 00:00:00
abstract：PURPOSE:To elucidate the influence of individual socioeconomic status on smoking in Japanese adults. METHODS:Using a nationally representative sample (20,206 men and 21,093 women aged 18 to 54 years), the relation between smoking and socioeconomic characteristics was analyzed by sex and age group (18 to 24, 25 to 39, ...
journal_title：Annals of epidemiology
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1016/j.annepidem.2004.09.003
更新日期：2005-05-01 00:00:00
abstract：PURPOSE:The association between glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c), medication use/adherence, and mortality stratified by race/ethnicity was examined in a national cohort of veterans with type 2 diabetes. METHODS:A total of 892,223 veterans with diabetes in 2002 were followed through 2006. HbA1c category was the main exposur...
journal_title：Annals of epidemiology
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1016/j.annepidem.2012.11.002
更新日期：2013-02-01 00:00:00
abstract：PURPOSE:To test whether female subjects in families with cleft lip and/or palate (CL/P) have an increased risk of breast cancer. METHODS:By using the Danish Facial Cleft Registry, we identified female subjects with CL/P, mothers of children with CL/P, and sisters to CL/P cases for the Danish birth cohorts 1911-1975. T...
journal_title：Annals of epidemiology
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1016/j.annepidem.2011.09.003
更新日期：2012-01-01 00:00:00
abstract：PURPOSE:We aim to shed light on progress in cancer medicine through studying time trends in age-specific rates of cancer incidence and mortality over the last quarter century. METHODS:We analyzed age-specific incidence and mortality rates of all cancer sites combined using the high-quality population-based databases o...
journal_title：Annals of epidemiology
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1016/j.annepidem.2020.04.007
更新日期：2020-08-01 00:00:00
abstract：PURPOSE:To estimate the annual incidence, cumulative probability of presumed urinary tract infection (UTI) by age, and the social costs. METHODS:Analysis of a random digit dialing survey of 2000 women in the United States. RESULTS:10.8 percent (95% CI: 9.4, 12.1%) of women aged 18 and older reported at least one pres...
journal_title：Annals of epidemiology
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1016/s1047-2797(00)00072-7
更新日期：2000-11-01 00:00:00
abstract：:Data are presented contrasting racial and ethnic differences in the use of alcohol and other drugs, and in the morbidity and mortality consequent to substance abuse and dependence. In a review of recent studies, whites were found to have higher rates of use, abuse, and dependence than other racial and ethnic groups, d...
journal_title：Annals of epidemiology
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1016/1047-2797(93)90131-m
更新日期：1993-03-01 00:00:00
abstract：PURPOSE:Parenthood for men and women has been associated with longevity, good physical health, and a deterrent effect on negative health behaviors which may affect subsequent mortality. However, decreased high density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) levels have been reported in women with greater numbers of pregnancies...
journal_title：Annals of epidemiology
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1016/s1047-2797(97)00016-1
更新日期：1997-05-01 00:00:00
abstract：PURPOSE:Interactions between bacterial vaginosis (BV) and inflammatory sexually transmitted infections, such as gonorrhea and chlamydial infection, are not well understood. Furthermore, evidence regarding the sexual transmission of BV is equivocal. METHODS:We assessed associations between incident BV and incidences of...
journal_title：Annals of epidemiology
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1016/j.annepidem.2011.11.005
更新日期：2012-03-01 00:00:00
abstract：PURPOSE:The Black Women's Health Study (BWHS) was designed to investigate determinants of health and disease in US black women. More than 64,000 women are enrolled in the BWHS cohort. This study assessed the relative validity of the 68-item food frequency questionnaire (FFQ) used in the BWHS baseline questionnaire. ME...
journal_title：Annals of epidemiology
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1016/s1047-2797(02)00253-3
更新日期：2003-02-01 00:00:00
abstract：PURPOSE:The purpose of this study was to estimate the heart rate variability (HRV)-related lifetime cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. METHODS:We followed 9744 participants without baseline CVD and used a life-table approach to estimate lifetime CVD risk (coronary heart disease, heart failure, and stroke) from 45 thro...
journal_title：Annals of epidemiology
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1016/j.annepidem.2017.08.024
更新日期：2017-10-01 00:00:00
abstract：PURPOSE:Determinants of oxidative capacity, such as fitness and level of adiposity, are strongly associated with type 2 diabetes. Whether decreased oxidative capacity itself is a cause or consequence of insulin resistance and diabetes is unknown. METHODS:We examined the association of plasma lactate, a marker of oxida...
journal_title：Annals of epidemiology
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1016/j.annepidem.2013.09.005
更新日期：2013-12-01 00:00:00
abstract：:A population-based, case-control study of sporadic salmonellosis was conducted in 1988 and 1989 in four northern California counties. The study included 120 patients and 265 control subjects. Conditional logistic regression analysis (adjusted for age) revealed that patients were more likely to consume undercooked chic...
journal_title：Annals of epidemiology
pub_type： 杂志文章
doi：10.1016/1047-2797(92)90013-g
更新日期：1992-09-01 00:00:00
