Abstract：
:The widely accepted multiple-hit hypothesis of carcinogenesis states that cancers arise after several successive events. However, no consensus has been reached on the quantity and nature of these events, although "driver" mutations or epimutations are considered the most probable candidates. By using the largest publicly available cancer incidence statistics (20 million cases), I show that incidence of 20 most prevalent cancer types in relation to patients' age closely follows the Erlang probability distribution (R2 = 0.9734-0.9999). The Erlang distribution describes the probability y of k independent random events occurring by the time x, but not earlier or later, with events happening on average every b time intervals. This fits well with the multiple-hit hypothesis and potentially allows to predict the number k of key carcinogenic events and the average time interval b between them, for each cancer type. Moreover, the amplitude parameter A likely predicts the maximal populational susceptibility to a given type of cancer. These parameters are estimated for 20 most common cancer types and provide numerical reference points for experimental research on cancer development.
journal_name
Sci Repjournal_title
Scientific reportsauthors
Belikov AVdoi
10.1038/s41598-017-12448-7subject
Has Abstractpub_date
2017-09-22 00:00:00pages
12170issue
1issn
2045-2322pii
10.1038/s41598-017-12448-7journal_volume
7pub_type
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更新日期：2017-08-03 00:00:00
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更新日期：2017-03-23 00:00:00
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更新日期：2016-07-01 00:00:00
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