Abstract:
BACKGROUND:HIV/AIDS has orphaned 11.6 million children in sub-Saharan Africa. Expanded antiretroviral therapy (ART) use may reduce AIDS orphanhood by decreasing adult mortality and population-level HIV transmission. METHODS:We modeled two scenarios to measure the impact of adult ART use on the incidence of orphanhood in 10 sub-Saharan African countries, from 2009 to 2020. Demographic model data inputs were obtained from cohort studies, UNAIDS, UN Population Division, WHO and the US Census Bureau. RESULTS:Compared to current rates of ART uptake, universal ART access averted 4.37 million more AIDS orphans by year 2020, including 3.15 million maternal, 1.89 million paternal and 0.75 million double orphans. The number of AIDS orphans averted was highest in South Africa (901.71 thousand) and Nigeria (839.01 thousand), and lowest in Zimbabwe (86.96 thousand) and Côte d'Ivoire (109.12 thousand). CONCLUSION:Universal ART use may significantly reduce orphanhood in sub-Saharan Africa.
journal_name
AIDS Res Therjournal_title
AIDS research and therapyauthors
Anema A,Au-Yeung CG,Joffres M,Kaida A,Vasarhelyi K,Kanters S,Montaner JS,Hogg RSdoi
10.1186/1742-6405-8-13subject
Has Abstractpub_date
2011-03-07 00:00:00pages
13issn
1742-6405pii
1742-6405-8-13journal_volume
8pub_type
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