Explanation, imagination, and confidence in judgment.

Abstract:

:This article concerns a class of experimental manipulations that require people to generate explanations or imagine scenarios. A review of studies using such manipulations indicates that people who explain or imagine a possibility then express greater confidence in the truth of that possibility. It is argued that this effect results from the approach people take in the explanation or imagination task: They temporarily assume that the hypothesis is true and assess how plausibly it can account for the relevant evidence. From this view, any task that requires that a hypothesis be treated as if it were true is sufficient to increase confidence in the truth of that hypothesis. Such tasks cause increased confidence in the hypothesis at the expense of viable alternatives because of changes in problem representation, evidence evaluation, and information search that take place when the hypothesis is temporarily treated as if it were true.

journal_name

Psychol Bull

journal_title

Psychological bulletin

authors

Koehler DJ

doi

10.1037/0033-2909.110.3.499

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

1991-11-01 00:00:00

pages

499-519

issue

3

eissn

0033-2909

issn

1939-1455

journal_volume

110

pub_type

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