Empirical Bayes estimation of farm prevalence adjusting for multistage sampling and uncertainty in test performance: a Brucella cross-sectional serostudy in southern Kazakhstan.

Abstract:

:Estimation of farm prevalence is common in veterinary research. Typically, not all animals within the farm are sampled, and imperfect tests are used. Often, assumptions about herd sizes and sampling proportions are made, which may be invalid in smallholder settings. We propose an alternative method for estimating farm prevalence in the context of Brucella seroprevalence estimation in an endemic region of Kazakhstan. We collected 210 milk samples from Otar district, with a population of about 1000 cattle and 16 000 small ruminants, and tested them using an indirect ELISA. Individual-level prevalence and 95% confidence intervals were estimated using Taylor series linearization. A model was developed to estimate the smallholding prevalence, taking into account variable sampling proportions and uncertainty in the test accuracy. We estimate that 73% of households that we sampled had at least one Brucella-seropositive animal (95% credible interval 68-82). We estimate that 58% (95% confidence interval 40-76) of lactating small ruminants and 14% (95% confidence interval 1-28) of lactating cows were seropositive. Our results suggest that brucellosis is highly endemic in the area and conflict with those of the official brucellosis-testing programme, which found that in 2013 0% of cows and 1·7% of small ruminants were seropositive.

journal_name

Epidemiol Infect

authors

Beauvais W,Orynbayev M,Guitian J

doi

10.1017/S0950268816001825

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

2016-12-01 00:00:00

pages

3531-3539

issue

16

eissn

0950-2688

issn

1469-4409

pii

S0950268816001825

journal_volume

144

pub_type

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