Dynamics of Salmonella transmission on a British pig grower-finisher farm: a stochastic model.

Abstract:

:Previous modelling studies have estimated that between 1% and 10% of human salmonella infections are attributable to pig meat consumption. In response to this food safety threat the British pig industry have initiated a salmonella monitoring programme. It is anticipated that this programme will contribute to achieving a UK Food Standards Agency target for reducing salmonella levels in pigs at slaughter by 50% within 5 years. In order to better inform the monitoring programme, we have developed a stochastic transmission model for salmonella in a specialist grower-finisher pig herd, where data from a Danish longitudinal study have been used to estimate some of the key model parameters. The model estimates that about 17% of slaughter-age pigs will be infected with salmonella, and that of these infected pigs about 4% will be excreting the organism. In addition, the model shows that the most effective control strategies will be those that reduce between-pen transmission.

journal_name

Epidemiol Infect

authors

Hill AA,Snary EL,Arnold ME,Alban L,Cook AJ

doi

10.1017/S0950268807008485

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

2008-03-01 00:00:00

pages

320-33

issue

3

eissn

0950-2688

issn

1469-4409

pii

S0950268807008485

journal_volume

136

pub_type

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