Contact patterns and their implied basic reproductive numbers: an illustration for varicella-zoster virus.

Abstract:

:The WAIFW matrix (Who Acquires Infection From Whom) is a central parameter in modelling the spread of infectious diseases. The calculation of the basic reproductive number (R0) depends on the assumptions made about the transmission within and between age groups through the structure of the WAIFW matrix and different structures might lead to different estimates for R0 and hence different estimates for the minimal immunization coverage needed for the elimination of the infection in the population. In this paper, we estimate R0 for varicella in Belgium. The force of infection is estimated from seroprevalence data using fractional polynomials and we show how the estimate of R0 is heavily influenced by the structure of the WAIFW matrix.

journal_name

Epidemiol Infect

authors

Effelterre TV,Shkedy Z,Aerts M,Molenberghs G,Damme PV,Beutels P

doi

10.1017/S0950268808000563

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

2009-01-01 00:00:00

pages

48-57

issue

1

eissn

0950-2688

issn

1469-4409

pii

S0950268808000563

journal_volume

137

pub_type

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