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Ecological niche modeling of coastal dune plants and future potential distribution in response to climate change and sea level rise.

Abstract：

:Climate change (CC) and sea level rise (SLR) are phenomena that could have severe impacts on the distribution of coastal dune vegetation. To explore this we modeled the climatic niches of six coastal dunes plant species that grow along the shoreline of the Gulf of Mexico and the Yucatan Peninsula, and projected climatic niches to future potential distributions based on two CC scenarios and SLR projections. Our analyses suggest that distribution of coastal plants will be severely limited, and more so in the case of local endemics (Chamaecrista chamaecristoides, Palafoxia lindenii, Cakile edentula). The possibilities of inland migration to the potential 'new shoreline' will be limited by human infrastructure and ecosystem alteration that will lead to a 'coastal squeeze' of the coastal habitats. Finally, we identified areas as future potential refuges for the six species in central Gulf of Mexico, and northern Yucatán Peninsula especially under CC and SLR scenarios.

journal_name

Glob Chang Biol

journal_title

Global change biology

authors

Mendoza-González G,Martínez ML,Rojas-Soto OR,Vázquez G,Gallego-Fernández JB

doi

10.1111/gcb.12236

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

2013-08-01 00:00:00

pages

2524-35

issue

8

eissn

1354-1013

issn

1365-2486

journal_volume

19

pub_type

杂志文章

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