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Anomalously warm temperatures are associated with increased injury deaths.

Abstract：

:Temperatures that deviate from the long-term local norm affect human health, and are projected to become more frequent as the global climate changes1. There are limited data on how such anomalies affect deaths from injuries. In the present study, we used data on mortality and temperature over 38 years (1980-2017) in the contiguous USA and formulated a Bayesian spatio-temporal model to quantify how anomalous temperatures, defined as deviations of monthly temperature from the local average monthly temperature over the entire analysis period, affect deaths from unintentional (transport, falls and drownings) and intentional (assault and suicide) injuries, by age group and sex. We found that a 1.5 °C anomalously warm year, as envisioned under the Paris Climate Agreement2, would be associated with an estimated 1,601 (95% credible interval 1,430-1,776) additional injury deaths. Of these additional deaths, 84% would occur in males, mostly in adolescence to middle age. These would comprise increases in deaths from drownings, transport, assault and suicide, offset partly by a decline in deaths from falls in older ages. The findings demonstrate the need for targeted interventions against injuries during periods of anomalously warm temperatures, especially as these episodes are likely to increase with global climate change.

journal_name

Nat Med

journal_title

Nature medicine

authors

Parks RM,Bennett JE,Tamura-Wicks H,Kontis V,Toumi R,Danaei G,Ezzati M

doi

10.1038/s41591-019-0721-y

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

2020-01-01 00:00:00

pages

65-70

issue

1

eissn

1078-8956

issn

1546-170X

pii

10.1038/s41591-019-0721-y

journal_volume

26

pub_type

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