Abstract:
:Reliable prediction of seasonal precipitation in the southwestern US (SWUS) remains a challenge with significant implications for the economy, water security and ecosystem management of the region. Winter precipitation in the SWUS has been linked to several climate modes, including the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), with limited predictive ability. Here we report evidence that late-summer sea surface temperature and geopotential height anomalies close to New Zealand exhibit higher correlation with SWUS winter precipitation than ENSO, enhancing the potential for earlier and more accurate prediction. The teleconnection depends on a western Pacific ocean-atmosphere pathway, whereby sea surface temperature anomalies propagate from the southern to the northern hemisphere during boreal summer. Analysis also shows an amplification of this new teleconnection over the past four decades. Our work highlights the need to understand the dynamic nature of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system in a changing climate for improving future predictions of regional precipitation.
journal_name
Nat Communjournal_title
Nature communicationsauthors
Mamalakis A,Yu JY,Randerson JT,AghaKouchak A,Foufoula-Georgiou Edoi
10.1038/s41467-018-04722-7subject
Has Abstractpub_date
2018-06-13 00:00:00pages
2332issue
1issn
2041-1723pii
10.1038/s41467-018-04722-7journal_volume
9pub_type
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