Validation of the Rockall scoring system for outcomes from non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding in a Canadian setting.

Abstract:

AIM:To validate the Rockall scoring system for predicting outcomes of rebleeding, and the need for a surgical procedure and death. METHODS:We used data extracted from the Registry of Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding and Endoscopy including information of 1869 patients with non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding treated in Canadian hospitals. Risk scores were calculated and used to classify patients based on outcomes. For each outcome, we used chi2 goodness-of-fit tests to assess the degree of calibration, and built receiver operating characteristic curves and calculated the area under the curve (AUC) to evaluate the discriminative ability of the scoring system. RESULTS:For rebleeding, the chi2 goodness-of-fit test indicated an acceptable fit for the model [chi2 (8) = 12.83, P = 0.12]. For surgical procedures [chi2 (8) = 5.3, P = 0.73] and death [chi2 (8) = 3.78, P = 0.88], the tests showed solid correspondence between observed proportions and predicted probabilities. The AUC was 0.59 (95% CI: 0.55-0.62) for the outcome of rebleeding and 0.60 (95% CI: 0.54-0.67) for surgical procedures, representing a poor discriminative ability of the scoring system. For the outcome of death, the AUC was 0.73 (95% CI: 0.69-0.78), indicating an acceptable discriminative ability. CONCLUSION:The Rockall scoring system provides an acceptable tool to predict death, but performs poorly for endpoints of rebleeding and surgical procedures.

journal_name

World J Gastroenterol

authors

Enns RA,Gagnon YM,Barkun AN,Armstrong D,Gregor JC,Fedorak RN,RUGBE Investigators Group.

doi

10.3748/wjg.v12.i48.7779

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

2006-12-28 00:00:00

pages

7779-85

issue

48

eissn

1007-9327

issn

2219-2840

journal_volume

12

pub_type

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