Abstract:
:Interpretation of empirical results based on a taxa's lifetime distribution shows apparently conflicting results. Species' lifetime is reported to be exponentially distributed, whereas higher-order taxa, such as families or genera, follow a broader distribution, compatible with power-law decay. We show that both forms of evidence are consistent with a simple evolutionary model that does not require specific assumptions on species interaction. The model provides a zero-order description of the dynamics of ecological communities, and its species lifetime distribution can be computed exactly. Different behaviors are found as follows: an initial t(-3/2) power law, emerging from a random walk type of dynamics, which crosses over to a steeper t(-2) branching process-like regime and finally is cut off by an exponential decay that becomes weaker and weaker as the total population increases. Sampling effects also can be taken into account and shown to be relevant. If species in the fossil record were sampled according to the Fisher log-series distribution, lifetime should be distributed according to a t(-1) power law. Such variability of behaviors in a simple model, combined with the scarcity of data available, casts serious doubt on the possibility of validating theories of evolution on the basis of species lifetime data.
journal_name
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S Aauthors
Pigolotti S,Flammini A,Marsili M,Maritan Adoi
10.1073/pnas.0502648102keywords:
subject
Has Abstractpub_date
2005-11-01 00:00:00pages
15747-51issue
44eissn
0027-8424issn
1091-6490pii
0502648102journal_volume
102pub_type
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