Abstract:
BACKGROUND:Singapore experiences endemic dengue, with 2013 being the largest outbreak year known to date, culminating in 22,170 cases. Given the limited resources available, and that vector control is the key approach for prevention in Singapore, it is important that public health professionals know where resources should be invested in. This study aims to stratify the spatial risk of dengue transmission in Singapore for effective deployment of resources. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS:Random Forest was used to predict the risk rank of dengue transmission in 1km2 grids, with dengue, population, entomological and environmental data. The predicted risk ranks are categorized and mapped to four color-coded risk groups for easy operation application. The risk maps were evaluated with dengue case and cluster data. Risk maps produced by Random Forest have high accuracy. More than 80% of the observed risk ranks fell within the 80% prediction interval. The observed and predicted risk ranks were highly correlated ([Formula: see text]≥0.86, P <0.01). Furthermore, the predicted risk levels were in excellent agreement with case density, a weighted Kappa coefficient of more than 0.80 (P <0.01). Close to 90% of the dengue clusters occur in high risk areas, and the odds of cluster forming in high risk areas were higher than in low risk areas. CONCLUSIONS:This study demonstrates the potential of Random Forest and its strong predictive capability in stratifying the spatial risk of dengue transmission in Singapore. Dengue risk map produced using Random Forest has high accuracy, and is a good surveillance tool to guide vector control operations.
journal_name
PLoS Negl Trop Disjournal_title
PLoS neglected tropical diseasesauthors
Ong J,Liu X,Rajarethinam J,Kok SY,Liang S,Tang CS,Cook AR,Ng LC,Yap Gdoi
10.1371/journal.pntd.0006587subject
Has Abstractpub_date
2018-06-18 00:00:00pages
e0006587issue
6eissn
1935-2727issn
1935-2735pii
PNTD-D-17-01640journal_volume
12pub_type
杂志文章abstract:BACKGROUND:Chlamydia trachomatis is the etiological agent of trachoma the world's leading cause of infectious blindness. Here, we investigate whether protracted clearance of a primary infection in nonhuman primates is attributable to antigenic variation or related to the maturation of the anti-chlamydial humoral immune...
journal_title:PLoS neglected tropical diseases
pub_type: 杂志文章
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journal_title:PLoS neglected tropical diseases
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journal_title:PLoS neglected tropical diseases
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journal_title:PLoS neglected tropical diseases
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journal_title:PLoS neglected tropical diseases
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journal_title:PLoS neglected tropical diseases
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abstract::Schistosomiasis is an important neglected tropical disease caused by digenean helminth parasites of the genus Schistosoma. Schistosomes are unusual in that they are dioecious and the adult worms live in the blood system. MicroRNAs play crucial roles during gene regulation and are likely to be important in sex differen...
journal_title:PLoS neglected tropical diseases
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journal_title:PLoS neglected tropical diseases
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journal_title:PLoS neglected tropical diseases
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journal_title:PLoS neglected tropical diseases
pub_type: 杂志文章,随机对照试验
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journal_title:PLoS neglected tropical diseases
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journal_title:PLoS neglected tropical diseases
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pub_type: 杂志文章,评审
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journal_title:PLoS neglected tropical diseases
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pub_type: 杂志文章,评审
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