Abstract:
BACKGROUND:Confirmed H1N1 cases during late spring and summer 2009 in various countries showed a substantial age shift between importations and local transmission cases, with adults mainly responsible for seeding unaffected regions and children most frequently driving community outbreaks. METHODS:We introduce a multi-host stochastic metapopulation model with two age classes to analytically investigate the role of a heterogeneously mixing population and its associated non-homogeneous travel behaviors on the risk of a major epidemic. We inform the model with demographic data, contact data and travel statistics of Europe and Mexico, and calibrate it to the 2009 H1N1 pandemic early outbreak. We allow for variations of the model parameters to explore the conditions of invasion under different scenarios. RESULTS:We derive the expression for the potential of global invasion of the epidemic that depends on the transmissibility of the pathogen, the transportation network and mobility features, the demographic profile and the mixing pattern. Higher assortativity in the contact pattern greatly increases the probability of spatial containment of the epidemic, this effect being contrasted by an increase in the social activity of adults vs. children. Heterogeneous features of the mobility network characterizing its topology and traffic flows strongly favor the invasion of the pathogen at the spatial level, as also a larger fraction of children traveling. Variations in the demographic profile and mixing habits across countries lead to heterogeneous outbreak situations. Model results are compatible with the H1N1 spatial transmission dynamics observed. CONCLUSIONS:This work illustrates the importance of considering age-dependent mixing profiles and mobility features coupled together to study the conditions for the spatial invasion of an emerging influenza pandemic. Its results allow the immediate assessment of the risk of a major epidemic for a specific scenario upon availability of data, and the evaluation of the potential effectiveness of public health interventions targeting specific age groups, their interactions and mobility behaviors. The approach provides a general modeling framework that can be used for other types of partitions of the host population and applied to different settings.
journal_name
BMC Infect Disjournal_title
BMC infectious diseasesauthors
Apolloni A,Poletto C,Colizza Vdoi
10.1186/1471-2334-13-176subject
Has Abstractpub_date
2013-04-15 00:00:00pages
176issn
1471-2334pii
1471-2334-13-176journal_volume
13pub_type
杂志文章abstract:BACKGROUND:Rosacea is an inflammatory disease affecting the central part of face characterized by persistent or recurrent episodes of erythema, papules, pustules and telangiectasias of unknown etiology. Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) is a gram-negative bacillus, which is one of the main causes of chronic gastritis, ga...
journal_title:BMC infectious diseases
pub_type: 杂志文章,评审
doi:10.1186/s12879-018-3232-4
更新日期:2018-07-11 00:00:00
abstract:BACKGROUND:Clostridium difficile (C. difficile) is a main cause of antibiotic-associated diarrhoea in humans. Several studies have been performed to reveal the prevalence rate of C. difficile in cats and dogs. However, little is known about the epidemiology of C. difficile in healthy pets in China. This study aimed to ...
journal_title:BMC infectious diseases
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1186/s12879-019-3678-z
更新日期:2019-01-11 00:00:00
abstract:BACKGROUND:Abnormal sexual behaviors presenting as manifestations of rabies have occasionally been reported in the literature, although little attention has been paid to these cases to date. This study aimed to analyze the clinical features of rabies cases with abnormal sexual behaviors as the presenting manifestations...
journal_title:BMC infectious diseases
pub_type: 杂志文章,评审
doi:10.1186/s12879-019-4252-4
更新日期:2019-08-01 00:00:00
abstract:BACKGROUND:Monocytes are the predominant innate immune cells at the early stage of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (M. tb) infection as the host defense against intracellular pathogens. Understanding the profile of different monocyte subpopulations and the dynamics of monocyte-related biomarkers may be useful for the diagno...
journal_title:BMC infectious diseases
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1186/s12879-019-4525-y
更新日期:2019-11-28 00:00:00
abstract:BACKGROUND:Understanding the types of strains and lineages of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (M. tuberculosis) circulating in a country is of paramount importance for tuberculosis (TB) control program of that country. The main aim of this study was to review and compile the results of studies conducted on strains and linea...
journal_title:BMC infectious diseases
pub_type: 杂志文章,评审
doi:10.1186/s12879-018-3046-4
更新日期:2018-03-27 00:00:00
abstract:BACKGROUND:Diseases caused by Mycobacterium tuberculosis (TB) among adult patients with hematological malignancies have rarely been investigated. METHODS:Adult patients with hematological malignancies at National Taiwan University Hospital between 1996 and 2009 were retrospectively reviewed. Patients with positive ser...
journal_title:BMC infectious diseases
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1186/1471-2334-11-324
更新日期:2011-11-23 00:00:00
abstract:BACKGROUND:Antiretroviral therapy (ART) has significantly decreased HIV/AIDS-related morbidity and mortality. However, globally, many people living with HIV die from non-AIDS related illnesses including liver diseases which occur partly due to co-infection with HBV and or HCV. The aim of this study was to determine the...
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pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1186/s12879-019-4027-y
更新日期:2019-05-03 00:00:00
abstract:BACKGROUND:Substantial numbers of patients are now receiving either immunosuppressive therapies or chemotherapy. There are significant risks in such patients of developing opportunistic infections or re-activation of latent infections, with higher associated morbidity and mortality. The aim of this quality improvement ...
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pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1186/s12879-020-05082-8
更新日期:2020-05-20 00:00:00
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pub_type: 杂志文章
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journal_title:BMC infectious diseases
pub_type: 临床试验,杂志文章
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更新日期:2002-08-28 00:00:00
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journal_title:BMC infectious diseases
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1186/1471-2334-14-87
更新日期:2014-02-19 00:00:00
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更新日期:2016-03-31 00:00:00
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pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1186/s12879-018-3455-4
更新日期:2018-11-06 00:00:00
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journal_title:BMC infectious diseases
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1186/1471-2334-11-91
更新日期:2011-04-13 00:00:00
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pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1186/1471-2334-12-5
更新日期:2012-01-14 00:00:00
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pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1186/s12879-016-1542-y
更新日期:2016-05-20 00:00:00
abstract:BACKGROUND:Typhoid fever is a systemic infection caused by the bacterium Salmonella enterica subspecies enterica serotype typhi, which is acquired by ingestion of contaminated food and water. Each year the disease affects at least 16 million persons world-wide, most of whom reside in the developing countries of Southea...
journal_title:BMC infectious diseases
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1186/1471-2334-6-38
更新日期:2006-02-27 00:00:00
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pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1186/s12879-019-4150-9
更新日期:2019-07-12 00:00:00
abstract:BACKGROUND:Varicella during pregnancy can lead to serious maternal and fetal consequences. Although an effective vaccine is available it is not incorporated in to the routine vaccination programs in most of the Asian countries. Objectives of the study were to determine the susceptibility to varicella and factors associ...
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pub_type: 杂志文章
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更新日期:2019-04-29 00:00:00
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pub_type: 杂志文章,meta分析
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pub_type: 杂志文章,meta分析
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pub_type: 杂志文章,多中心研究,随机对照试验
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journal_title:BMC infectious diseases
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1186/s12879-016-1882-7
更新日期:2016-10-13 00:00:00
abstract:BACKGROUND:Antiretroviral therapy markedly reduced mortality in HIV-infected individuals. However, in the previous studies, up to 50% of patients are compelled to modify their regimen in middle and low-income countries where salvage drug is still limited. This cohort study aimed to investigate the incidence and predict...
journal_title:BMC infectious diseases
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1186/s12879-014-0565-5
更新日期:2014-10-30 00:00:00
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pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1186/s12879-019-4633-8
更新日期:2019-11-27 00:00:00
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journal_title:BMC infectious diseases
pub_type: 杂志文章
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更新日期:2020-02-11 00:00:00
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journal_title:BMC infectious diseases
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1186/s12879-020-05610-6
更新日期:2020-11-27 00:00:00
abstract:BACKGROUND:African malaria vectors bite predominantly indoors at night so sleeping under an Insecticide-Treated Net (ITN) can greatly reduce malaria risk. Behavioural adaptation by mosquitoes to increasing ITN coverage could allow vector mosquitoes to bite outside of peak sleeping hours and undermine efficacy of this k...
journal_title:BMC infectious diseases
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1186/1471-2334-6-161
更新日期:2006-11-10 00:00:00