Abstract:
:To control emerging infectious diseases like SARS, it is necessary to resort to basic control measures that limit exposures to infectious individuals. These measures include isolating cases at diagnosis, quarantining household members and tracing contacts of diagnosed cases, providing the community with advice on how to reduce exposures, and closing schools. To justify such intervention it is important to understand how well each of these measures helps to limit transmission. In this paper, we determine the effect of a number of different interventions on the effective reproduction number and estimate requirements to achieve elimination of the infectious disease. We find that the strategy of tracing and quarantining contacts of diagnosed cases can be very successful in reducing transmission.
journal_name
Math Bioscijournal_title
Mathematical biosciencesauthors
Becker NG,Glass K,Li Z,Aldis GKdoi
10.1016/j.mbs.2004.07.006subject
Has Abstractpub_date
2005-02-01 00:00:00pages
205-21issue
2eissn
0025-5564issn
1879-3134pii
S0025-5564(04)00188-9journal_volume
193pub_type
杂志文章abstract::Most models of the spread of HIV/AIDS assume that the probability of transmission from an infected individual to a susceptible partner has some constant value per sexual act, compounding independently randomly (so that ten acts with one person chosen from a particular group has, on average, the same risk as one act wi...
journal_title:Mathematical biosciences
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1016/0025-5564(92)90006-i
更新日期:1992-02-01 00:00:00
abstract::The goal of this study is to uncover some unobservable aspects of the individual-patient natural history of metastatic renal cell carcinoma (RCC) through mathematical modeling. We analyzed four clear cell RCC patients who at the time of primary tumor resection already had pulmonary metastases. Our description of the n...
journal_title:Mathematical biosciences
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1016/j.mbs.2019.01.008
更新日期:2019-03-01 00:00:00
abstract::In biodiversity conservation it is often necessary to prioritize the species to conserve. Existing approaches to prioritization, e.g. the Fair Proportion Index and the Shapley Value, are based on phylogenetic trees and rank species according to their contribution to overall phylogenetic diversity. However, in many cas...
journal_title:Mathematical biosciences
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1016/j.mbs.2018.02.005
更新日期:2018-04-01 00:00:00
abstract::Cyclic four-state models are frequently used in biology to represent a variety of molecular behaviors. A common experimental strategy to test such models is to follow the behavior of the real system after some of the rate constants are changed in a stepwise manner. We analyze the mathematical behavior of a simple exam...
journal_title:Mathematical biosciences
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1016/0025-5564(92)90086-c
更新日期:1992-11-01 00:00:00
abstract::A novel multi-input single output (MISO) black-box sigmoid model is developed to simulate the biosorption of heavy metal cations by the fission yeast from aqueous medium. Validation and verification of the model is done through statistical chi-squared hypothesis tests and the model is evaluated by uncertainty and sens...
journal_title:Mathematical biosciences
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1016/j.mbs.2015.04.007
更新日期:2015-07-01 00:00:00
abstract::The two methods available for analyzing the global structural identifiability of the parameters of a nonlinear system with a specified input function, the Taylor series approach and the similarity transformation approach, are compared and contrasted through application to three examples. It is shown that, as for linea...
journal_title:Mathematical biosciences
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1016/0025-5564(90)90055-4
更新日期:1990-11-01 00:00:00
abstract::We investigate a mathematical model of tumor-immune interactions with chemotherapy, and strategies for optimally administering treatment. In this paper we analyze the dynamics of this model, characterize the optimal controls related to drug therapy, and discuss numerical results of the optimal strategies. The form of ...
journal_title:Mathematical biosciences
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1016/j.mbs.2006.05.003
更新日期:2007-09-01 00:00:00
abstract::Most endocrine cells secrete hormones as a result of Ca2+-regulated exocytosis, i.e., fusion of the membranes of hormone-containing secretory granules with the cell membrane, which allows the hormone molecules to escape to the extracellular space. As in neurons, electrical activity and cell depolarization open voltage...
journal_title:Mathematical biosciences
pub_type: 杂志文章,评审
doi:10.1016/j.mbs.2016.11.010
更新日期:2017-01-01 00:00:00
abstract::Invariants are functions of the probabilities of state configurations among lineages, with expected values equal to zero under certain phylogenies. For two-state sequences, the existence of certain quadratic invariants requires a symmetric substitution model. For sequences with more than two states, the necessary cond...
journal_title:Mathematical biosciences
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1016/0025-5564(91)90083-u
更新日期:1991-07-01 00:00:00
abstract::This paper considers the geometry of plants with golden spiral phyllotaxis, i.e. growing leaf by leaf on a spiral with golden divergence angle, via the simplest mathematical model, a cylinder with regular arrangement of points on its surface. As is well-known, Fibonacci numbers appear by means of the order of parastic...
journal_title:Mathematical biosciences
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1016/j.mbs.2018.05.003
更新日期:2018-07-01 00:00:00
abstract::In this work we investigate, by means of numerical simulations, the performance of two mathematical models describing the spread of excitation in a three dimensional block representing anisotropic cardiac tissue. The first model is characterized by a reaction-diffusion system in the transmembrane and extracellular pot...
journal_title:Mathematical biosciences
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1016/0025-5564(93)90001-q
更新日期:1993-02-01 00:00:00
abstract::A model was developed for novel prediction of N-linked glycan branching pattern classification for CHO-derived N-linked glycoproteins. The model consists of 30 independent recurrent neural networks and uses predicted quantities of secondary structure elements and residue solvent accessibility as an input vector. The m...
journal_title:Mathematical biosciences
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1016/j.mbs.2007.10.005
更新日期:2008-01-01 00:00:00
abstract::Microorganisms exhibit varied regulatory strategies such as direct regulation, symmetric anticipatory regulation, asymmetric anticipatory regulation, etc. Current mathematical modeling frameworks for the growth of microorganisms either do not incorporate regulation or assume that the microorganisms utilize the direct ...
journal_title:Mathematical biosciences
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1016/j.mbs.2013.11.005
更新日期:2014-02-01 00:00:00
abstract::In this study we investigate the equations governing the transport of oxygen in pulmonary capillaries. We use a mathematical model consisting of a red blood cell completely surrounded by plasma within a cylindrical pulmonary capillary. This model takes account of convection and diffusion of oxygen through plasma, diff...
journal_title:Mathematical biosciences
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1016/s0025-5564(00)00060-2
更新日期:2001-02-01 00:00:00
abstract::A fundamental problem in reconstructing the evolutionary history of a set of species is to infer the topology of the evolutionary tree that relates those species. A statistical method for estimating such a topology from character data is called consistent if, given data from more and more characters, the method is sur...
journal_title:Mathematical biosciences
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1016/0025-5564(95)00172-7
更新日期:1996-06-01 00:00:00
abstract::Malaria is an infectious disease present all around the globe and responsible for half a million deaths per year. A within-host model of this infection requires a framework capable of properly approximating not only the blood stage of the infection but also the erythropoietic process that is in charge of overcoming th...
journal_title:Mathematical biosciences
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1016/j.mbs.2015.08.020
更新日期:2015-12-01 00:00:00
abstract::In many cicadas, a phenomenon is observed in which the peak of emergence of males precedes that of females (protandry). Generally, it is known that the ecology of emergence of insects is closely related to mating, and protandry is said to be the strategy of males to eclose early and to attempt mating with virgin femal...
journal_title:Mathematical biosciences
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1016/j.mbs.2018.08.006
更新日期:2018-11-01 00:00:00
abstract::Based on previously published experimental observations and mathematical models for Hes1, p53 and NF-kappaB gene expression, we improve these models through a distributed delay formulation of the time lag between transcription factor binding and mRNA production. This description of natural variability for delays intro...
journal_title:Mathematical biosciences
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1016/j.mbs.2006.08.010
更新日期:2007-02-01 00:00:00
abstract::This paper investigates the effects of vaccination on the dynamics of infectious disease, which is spreading in a population concurrently with awareness. The model considers contributions to the overall awareness from a global information campaign, direct contacts between unaware and aware individuals, and reported ca...
journal_title:Mathematical biosciences
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1016/j.mbs.2017.09.007
更新日期:2017-12-01 00:00:00
abstract::It has been shown in the literature that myocytes isolated from the ventricular walls at various intramural depths have different action potential durations (APDs). When these myocytes are embedded in the ventricular wall, their inhomogeneous properties affect the sequence of repolarization and the actual distribution...
journal_title:Mathematical biosciences
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1016/j.mbs.2006.06.002
更新日期:2006-11-01 00:00:00
abstract::For a wide range of airborne infectious diseases, transmission within the family or household is a key mechanism for the spread and persistence of infection. In general, household-based transmission is relatively strong but only involves a limited number of individuals in contact with each infectious person. In contra...
journal_title:Mathematical biosciences
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1016/j.mbs.2008.01.011
更新日期:2008-05-01 00:00:00
abstract::Statistical consistency in phylogenetics has traditionally referred to the accuracy of estimating phylogenetic parameters for a fixed number of species as we increase the number of characters. However, it is also useful to consider a dual type of statistical consistency where we increase the number of species, rather ...
journal_title:Mathematical biosciences
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1016/j.mbs.2010.07.002
更新日期:2010-10-01 00:00:00
abstract::This paper considers complex models arising in sociobiology. These combine genetic and strategic aspects to model the effect of gene-linked strategies on the ability of individuals to survive to maturity, mate and produce offspring. Several important models considered in the literature are generalised and extended to ...
journal_title:Mathematical biosciences
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1016/s0025-5564(98)10011-1
更新日期:1998-08-01 00:00:00
abstract::Distribution or nuclear space-valued stochastic differential equations (SDEs) (diffusions as well as discontinuous equations) are discussed as stochastic models for the behavior of voltage potentials of spatially distributed neurons. A propagation of chaos result is obtained for an interacting system of Hilbert space-...
journal_title:Mathematical biosciences
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1016/0025-5564(92)90024-q
更新日期:1992-12-01 00:00:00
abstract::Under the influence of randomly occurring disasters, the eventual extinction probability, q, of a birth and death process, Z, is a random variable. In this paper, we obtain an integral expression for the probability density function g(x) of q under the assumption that the population process Z is a time homogeneous lin...
journal_title:Mathematical biosciences
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1016/s0025-5564(99)00059-0
更新日期:2000-03-01 00:00:00
abstract::Inflammation plays a critical role in the development and progression of cancer, evident in multiple patient populations manifesting increased, non-resolving inflammation, such as inflammatory bowel disease, viral hepatitis and obesity. Given the complexity of both the inflammatory response and the process of oncogene...
journal_title:Mathematical biosciences
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1016/j.mbs.2014.07.009
更新日期:2015-02-01 00:00:00
abstract::When comparing the performance of a stochastic model of an epidemic at two points in a parameter space, a threshold is said to have been crossed when at one point an epidemic develops with positive probability; while at the other there is a tendency for an epidemic to become extinct. The approach used to find threshol...
journal_title:Mathematical biosciences
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1016/s0025-5564(01)00093-1
更新日期:2002-05-01 00:00:00
abstract::Many mathematical models in biology and physiology are represented by systems of nonlinear differential equations. In recent years these models have become increasingly complex in order to explain the enormous volume of data now available. A key role of modellers is to determine which components of the model have the ...
journal_title:Mathematical biosciences
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1016/j.mbs.2013.12.011
更新日期:2014-02-01 00:00:00
abstract::This study is a theoretical excursion into gravity models and their usability in evaluating importance of spatial structure and population development for the spread of colonizing organisms. A so called "gravity score" for sites is deduced, and such a score could be used for predicting risk of colonization once one si...
journal_title:Mathematical biosciences
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1016/j.mbs.2009.08.008
更新日期:2009-11-01 00:00:00
abstract::We consider estimates of certain time-domain parameters of a bivariate stationary-point process based on modified periodogram statistics. These estimates are shown to be asymptotically normal under regularity conditions. In the computations of the estimates, the advantage of using the FFT algorithm is demonstrated. Th...
journal_title:Mathematical biosciences
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1016/0025-5564(91)90061-m
更新日期:1991-05-01 00:00:00