Determination of threshold conditions for a non-linear stochastic partnership model for heterosexually transmitted diseases with stages.

Abstract:

:When comparing the performance of a stochastic model of an epidemic at two points in a parameter space, a threshold is said to have been crossed when at one point an epidemic develops with positive probability; while at the other there is a tendency for an epidemic to become extinct. The approach used to find thresholds in this paper was to embed a system of ordinary non-linear differential equations in a stochastic process, accommodating the formation and dissolution of marital partnerships in a heterosexual population, extra-marital sexual contacts, and diseases such as HIV/AIDS with stages. A symbolic representation of the Jacobian matrix of this system was derived. To determine whether this matrix was stable or non-stable at a particular parameter point, the Jacobian was evaluated at a disease-free equilibrium and its eigenvalues were computed. The stability or non-stability of the matrix was then determined by checking if all real parts of the eigenvalues were negative. By writing software to repeat this process for a selected set of points in the parameter space, it was possible to develop search engines for finding points in the parameter space where thresholds were crossed. The results of a set of Monte Carlo simulation experiments were reported which suggest that, by combining the stochastic and deterministic paradigms within a single formulation, it was possible to obtain more informative interpretations of simulation experiments than if attention were confined solely to either paradigm.

journal_name

Math Biosci

journal_title

Mathematical biosciences

authors

Gallop RJ,Mode CJ,Sleeman CK

doi

10.1016/s0025-5564(01)00093-1

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

2002-05-01 00:00:00

pages

287-315

eissn

0025-5564

issn

1879-3134

pii

S0025556401000931

journal_volume

177-178

pub_type

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