COVID-19 in India: transmission dynamics, epidemiological characteristics, testing, recovery and effect of weather.

Abstract:

:The spread of COVID-19 is recent in India, which has within 4 months caused over 190 000 infections, as of 1 June 2020, despite four stringent lockdowns. With the current rate of the disease transmission in India, which is home to over 1.35 billion people, the infection spread is predicted to be worse than the USA in the upcoming months. To date, there is a major lack of understanding of the transmission dynamics and epidemiological characteristics of the disease in India, inhibiting effective measures to control the pandemic. We collected all the available data of the individual patients, cases and a range of parameters such as population distribution, testing and healthcare facilities, and weather, across all Indian states till May 2020. Numerical analysis was conducted to determine the effect of each parameter on the COVID-19 situation in India. A significant amount of local transmission in India initiated with travellers returning from abroad. Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu and Delhi are currently the top three infected states in India with doubling time of 14.5 days. The average recovery rate across Indian states is 42%, with a mortality rate below 3%. The rest 55% are currently active cases. In total, 88% of the patients experienced symptoms of high fever, 68% suffered from dry cough and 7.1% patients were asymptomatic. In total, 66.8% patients were males, 73% were in the age group of 20-59 years and over 83% recovered in 11-25 days. Approximately 3.4 million people were tested between 1 April and 25 May 2020, out of which 4% were detected COVID-19-positive. Given the current doubling time of infections, several states may face a major shortage of public beds and healthcare facilities soon. Weather has minimal effect on the infection spread in most Indian states. The study results will help policymakers to predict the trends of the disease spread in the upcoming months and devise better control measures.

journal_name

Epidemiol Infect

authors

Chanda A

doi

10.1017/S0950268820001776

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

2020-08-11 00:00:00

pages

e182

eissn

0950-2688

issn

1469-4409

pii

S0950268820001776

journal_volume

148

pub_type

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