Projections of increased and decreased dengue incidence under climate change.

Abstract:

:Dengue is the world's most prevalent mosquito-borne disease, with more than 200 million people each year becoming infected. We used a mechanistic virus transmission model to determine whether climate warming would change dengue transmission in Australia. Using two climate models each with two carbon emission scenarios, we calculated future dengue epidemic potential for the period 2046-2064. Using the ECHAM5 model, decreased dengue transmission was predicted under the A2 carbon emission scenario, whereas some increases are likely under the B1 scenario. Dengue epidemic potential may decrease under climate warming due to mosquito breeding sites becoming drier and mosquito survivorship declining. These results contradict most previous studies that use correlative models to show increased dengue transmission under climate warming. Dengue epidemiology is determined by a complex interplay between climatic, human host, and pathogen factors. It is therefore naive to assume a simple relationship between climate and incidence, and incorrect to state that climate warming will uniformly increase dengue transmission, although in general the health impacts of climate change will be negative.

journal_name

Epidemiol Infect

authors

Williams CR,Mincham G,Faddy H,Viennet E,Ritchie SA,Harley D

doi

10.1017/S095026881600162X

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

2016-10-01 00:00:00

pages

3091-3100

issue

14

eissn

0950-2688

issn

1469-4409

pii

S095026881600162X

journal_volume

144

pub_type

杂志文章
  • Trimethoprim resistance in commensal bacteria isolated from farm animals.

    abstract::Trimethoprim resistance was examined in faecal bacteria obtained from chickens, sheep, cattle and pigs. The incidence of trimethoprim resistance in porcine strains was 17% (157/922) and, whereas 15.8% (146/922) of these bacteria were highly resistant, only 4% (37/922) of the isolates possessed trimethoprim resistance ...

    journal_title:Epidemiology and infection

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1017/s0950268800061744

    authors: Amyes SG

    更新日期:1987-02-01 00:00:00

  • Bancroftian filariasis in Pondicherry, south India: 2. Epidemiological evaluation of the effect of vector control.

    abstract::This article examines the evaluation of a bancroftian filariasis control programme undertaken in Pondicherry from 1981-5. Integrated vector management was applied in one half of the town, and routine operations under the national programme (larviciding and chemotherapy) continued in the comparison area. The programme ...

    journal_title:Epidemiology and infection

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1017/s0950268800031095

    authors: Subramanian S,Pani SP,Das PK,Rajagopalan PK

    更新日期:1989-12-01 00:00:00

  • Testing the accuracy ratio of the Spatio-Temporal Epidemiological Modeler (STEM) through Ebola haemorrhagic fever outbreaks.

    abstract::Mathematical modelling is an important tool for understanding the dynamics of the spread of infectious diseases, which could be the result of a natural outbreak or of the intentional release of pathogenic biological agents. Decision makers and policymakers responsible for strategies to contain disease, prevent epidemi...

    journal_title:Epidemiology and infection

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1017/S0950268815002939

    authors: Baldassi F,D'Amico F,Carestia M,Cenciarelli O,Mancinelli S,Gilardi F,Malizia A,DI Giovanni D,Soave PM,Bellecci C,Gaudio P,Palombi L

    更新日期:2016-05-01 00:00:00

  • Skin and soft-tissue infection caused by non-tuberculous mycobacteria in Taiwan, 1997-2008.

    abstract::The aim of this study was to investigate the clinical, microbiological, and pathological characteristics and the outcomes of skin and soft-tissue infection (SSTI) caused by non-tuberculous mycobacteria (NTM). Medical records of 50 patients with SSTI caused by NTM identified from 2005 to 2008 and 63 patients previously...

    journal_title:Epidemiology and infection

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1017/S0950268810001603

    authors: Chen HY,Chen CY,Huang CT,Ruan SY,Chou CH,Lai CC,Liao CH,Tan CK,Huang YT,Yu CJ,Hsueh PR

    更新日期:2011-01-01 00:00:00

  • An outbreak of viral gastroenteritis associated with adequately prepared oysters.

    abstract::Over Christmas 1993, an outbreak of food poisoning occurred among guests in a hotel in South West Scotland. Evidence from a cohort study strongly suggested that raw oysters were the vehicle for infection, probably due to a Small Round Structured Virus (SRSV). Detailed enquiry about the source and preparation of the oy...

    journal_title:Epidemiology and infection

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1017/s0950268800058222

    authors: Chalmers JW,McMillan JH

    更新日期:1995-08-01 00:00:00

  • Characterisation of Bordetella bronchiseptica isolated from rabbits in Fujian, China.

    abstract::Bordetella bronchiseptica is a potential zoonotic pathogen, which mainly causes respiratory diseases in humans and a variety of animal species. B. bronchiseptica is one of the important pathogens isolated from rabbits in Fujian Province. However, the knowledge of the epidemiology and characteristics of the B. bronchis...

    journal_title:Epidemiology and infection

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1017/S0950268820001879

    authors: Wang J,Sun S,Chen Y,Chen D,Sang L,Xie X

    更新日期:2020-08-24 00:00:00

  • Insertion sequence IS200 fingerprinting of Salmonella typhi: an assessment of epidemiological applicability.

    abstract::When Pst I-generated digests of genomic DNA from each of the type strains of 49 of the Vi phage types of Salmonella typhi were probed with a PCR-amplified IS200 gene probe, all strains were found to possess at least 11 IS200 elements carried on fragments in the range 24.2-1.2 kb. Fourteen fingerprints were identified ...

    journal_title:Epidemiology and infection

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1017/s0950268800057666

    authors: Threlfall EJ,Torre E,Ward LR,Dávalos-Pérez A,Rowe B,Gibert I

    更新日期:1994-04-01 00:00:00

  • Widespread detection of antibodies to Leptospira in feral swine in the United States.

    abstract::As feral swine continue to expand their geographical range and distribution across the United States, their involvement in crop damage, livestock predation, and pathogen transmission is likely to increase. Despite the relatively recent discovery of feral swine involvement in the aetiology of a variety of pathogens, th...

    journal_title:Epidemiology and infection

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1017/S0950268814003148

    authors: Pedersen K,Pabilonia KL,Anderson TD,Bevins SN,Hicks CR,Kloft JM,Deliberto TJ

    更新日期:2015-07-01 00:00:00

  • Association between meteorological factors and reported cases of hand, foot, and mouth disease from 2000 to 2015 in Japan.

    abstract::The purpose of this study was to clarify the association between hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) epidemics and meteorological conditions. We used HFMD surveillance data of all 47 prefectures in Japan from January 2000 to December 2015. Spectral analysis was performed using the maximum entropy method (MEM) for tem...

    journal_title:Epidemiology and infection

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1017/S0950268817001820

    authors: Sumi A,Toyoda S,Kanou K,Fujimoto T,Mise K,Kohei Y,Koyama A,Kobayashi N

    更新日期:2017-10-01 00:00:00

  • The seroepidemiology of pertussis in Australia during an epidemic period.

    abstract::Studying the epidemiology of pertussis and impact of differing vaccine schedules is difficult because of differing methods of case ascertainment. The advent of internationally standardized serological diagnosis for recent infection has allowed comparison of age-specific pertussis infection among European countries and...

    journal_title:Epidemiology and infection

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1017/S095026880600625X

    authors: Cagney M,MacIntyre CR,McIntyre P,Puech M,Giammanco A

    更新日期:2006-12-01 00:00:00

  • A geostatistical investigation of agricultural and infrastructural risk factors associated with primary verotoxigenic E. coli (VTEC) infection in the Republic of Ireland, 2008-2013.

    abstract::Ireland reports the highest incidence of verotoxigenic Escherichia coli (VTEC) infection in Europe. This study investigated potential risk factors for confirmed sporadic and outbreak primary VTEC infections during 2008-2013. Overall, 989 VTEC infections including 521 serogroup O157 and 233 serogroup O26 were geo-refer...

    journal_title:Epidemiology and infection

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1017/S095026881600193X

    authors: Óhaiseadha C,Hynds PD,Fallon UB,O'Dwyer J

    更新日期:2017-01-01 00:00:00

  • Clinical significance of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus colonization in residents in community long-term-care facilities in Spain.

    abstract::Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) is highly prevalent in Spanish hospitals and community long-term-care facilities (LTCFs). This longitudinal study was performed in community LTCFs to determine whether MRSA colonization is associated with MRSA infections and overall mortality. Nasal and decubitus ulce...

    journal_title:Epidemiology and infection

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1017/S0950268811000641

    authors: Manzur A,De Gopegui ER,Dominguez M,Mariscal D,Gavalda L,Perez JL,Segura F,Pujol M,Spanish Network for Research in Infectious Diseases.

    更新日期:2012-03-01 00:00:00

  • The zoonotic potential of Mycobacterium avium ssp. paratuberculosis: a systematic review and meta-analyses of the evidence.

    abstract::This systematic review-meta-analysis appraises and summarizes all the available research (128 papers) on the zoonotic potential of Mycobacterium avium ssp. paratuberculosis. The latter has been debated for a century due to pathogenic and clinical similarities between Johne's disease in ruminants and Crohn's disease (1...

    journal_title:Epidemiology and infection

    pub_type: 杂志文章,meta分析,评审

    doi:10.1017/S095026881500076X

    authors: Waddell LA,Rajić A,Stärk KD,McEWEN SA

    更新日期:2015-11-01 00:00:00

  • Putative household outbreaks of campylobacteriosis typically comprise single MLST genotypes.

    abstract::During a 15-month period in Scotland a small but important number of human Campylobacter cases (3·2%) arose from 91 putative household outbreaks. Of the 26 outbreaks with known strain composition, 89% were composed of the same MLST which supports the potential use of MLST in public health epidemiology. The number of c...

    journal_title:Epidemiology and infection

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1017/S0950268810001457

    authors: Rotariu O,Smith-Palmer A,Cowden J,Bessell PR,Innocent GT,Reid SW,Matthews L,Dallas J,Ogden ID,Forbes KJ,Strachan NJ

    更新日期:2010-12-01 00:00:00

  • A multifactorial regression analysis of the features of community-acquired rotavirus requiring hospitalization in Spain as represented in the Minimum Basic Data Set.

    abstract::Over 10% of acute rotavirus gastroenteritis (ARGE) requires hospitalization because of complications. The aggravating factors have been widely analysed, but in an isolated way. We aimed to explore the interrelationship between the clinical and epidemiological factors that characterize rotavirus hospitalizations in Spa...

    journal_title:Epidemiology and infection

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1017/S0950268816000881

    authors: Redondo-González O,Tenías-Burillo JM

    更新日期:2016-09-01 00:00:00

  • The incidence of pneumonia using data from a computerized general practice database.

    abstract::Despite being widely recognized as a significant public health problem there are surprisingly few contemporary data available on the incidence of pneumonia in the UK. We conducted a general population-based cohort study to determine the incidence of pneumonia in general practice in the United Kingdom. Data were obtain...

    journal_title:Epidemiology and infection

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1017/S0950268808001428

    authors: Myles PR,McKeever TM,Pogson Z,Smith CJ,Hubbard RB

    更新日期:2009-05-01 00:00:00

  • Comparison of routine field epidemiology and whole genome sequencing to identify tuberculosis transmission in a remote setting.

    abstract::Yukon Territory (YT) is a remote region in northern Canada with ongoing spread of tuberculosis (TB). To explore the utility of whole genome sequencing (WGS) for TB surveillance and monitoring in a setting with detailed contact tracing and interview data, we used a mixed-methods approach. Our analysis included all cult...

    journal_title:Epidemiology and infection

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1017/S0950268820000072

    authors: Guthrie JL,Strudwick L,Roberts B,Allen M,McFadzen J,Roth D,Jorgensen D,Rodrigues M,Tang P,Hanley B,Johnston J,Cook VJ,Gardy JL

    更新日期:2020-02-04 00:00:00

  • Coagulase gene polymorphism of Staphylococcus aureus isolates from dairy cattle in different geographical areas.

    abstract::The objectives of this study were to investigate the coagulase gene polymorphism of Staphylococcus aureus isolates obtained from bovine mastitic milk and to determine the resistance of predominant and rare coagulase genotypes to bovine blood neutrophil bactericidal activities. A total of 453 isolates were collected fr...

    journal_title:Epidemiology and infection

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1017/s0950268899002228

    authors: Su C,Herbelin C,Frieze N,Skardova O,Sordillo LM

    更新日期:1999-04-01 00:00:00

  • Predicting arboviral disease emergence using Bayesian networks: a case study of dengue virus in Western Australia.

    abstract::A Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) for assessing the potential risk of dengue virus emergence and distribution in Western Australia (WA) is presented and used to identify possible hotspots of dengue outbreaks in summer and winter. The model assesses the probabilities of two kinds of events which must take place before an...

    journal_title:Epidemiology and infection

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1017/S0950268816002090

    authors: Ho SH,Speldewinde P,Cook A

    更新日期:2017-01-01 00:00:00

  • Emerging zoonoses and vector-borne infections affecting humans in Europe.

    abstract::The purpose of this study was to assess and describe the current spectrum of emerging zoonoses between 2000 and 2006 in European countries. A computerized search of the Medline database from January 1966 to August 2006 for all zoonotic agents in European countries was performed using specific criteria for emergence. F...

    journal_title:Epidemiology and infection

    pub_type: 杂志文章,评审

    doi:10.1017/S0950268807008527

    authors: Vorou RM,Papavassiliou VG,Tsiodras S

    更新日期:2007-11-01 00:00:00

  • Modelling the transmission of airborne infections in enclosed spaces.

    abstract::The Wells-Riley equation for modelling airborne infection in indoor environments is incorporated into an SEIR epidemic model with a short incubation period to simulate the transmission dynamics of airborne infectious diseases in ventilated rooms. The model enables the effect of environmental factors such as the ventil...

    journal_title:Epidemiology and infection

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1017/S0950268806005875

    authors: Noakes CJ,Beggs CB,Sleigh PA,Kerr KG

    更新日期:2006-10-01 00:00:00

  • High prevalence of HIV infection among rural tea plantation residents in Kericho, Kenya.

    abstract::Human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) epidemiology among residents of a rural agricultural plantation in Kericho, Kenya was studied. HIV-1 prevalence was 14.3%, and was higher among women (19.1%) than men (11.3%). Risk factors associated with HIV-1 for men were age (>or=25 years), marital history (one or more ma...

    journal_title:Epidemiology and infection

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1017/S0950268807009028

    authors: Foglia G,Sateren WB,Renzullo PO,Bautista CT,Langat L,Wasunna MK,Singer DE,Scott PT,Robb ML,Birx DL

    更新日期:2008-05-01 00:00:00

  • The emergence of wildlife species as a source of human rabies infection in Brazil.

    abstract::Forty-five human rabies virus isolates from a wide geographical area of Brazil were characterized using an anti-nucleoprotein monoclonal antibody panel and by partial nucleotide sequencing analysis of the nucleoprotein gene. Three major antigenic groups related to the antigenic variants maintained in domestic dogs, va...

    journal_title:Epidemiology and infection

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1017/S0950268813000198

    authors: Favoretto SR,de Mattos CC,de Mattos CA,Campos AC,Sacramento DR,Durigon EL

    更新日期:2013-07-01 00:00:00

  • Empirical Bayes estimation of farm prevalence adjusting for multistage sampling and uncertainty in test performance: a Brucella cross-sectional serostudy in southern Kazakhstan.

    abstract::Estimation of farm prevalence is common in veterinary research. Typically, not all animals within the farm are sampled, and imperfect tests are used. Often, assumptions about herd sizes and sampling proportions are made, which may be invalid in smallholder settings. We propose an alternative method for estimating farm...

    journal_title:Epidemiology and infection

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1017/S0950268816001825

    authors: Beauvais W,Orynbayev M,Guitian J

    更新日期:2016-12-01 00:00:00

  • Neisseria cuniculi in ruminants: epidemiological aspects.

    abstract::Neisseria cuniculi was isolated, between March 1987 and March 1989, from 38 cases of respiratory disease in small and large ruminants. In all but five cases N. cuniculi was cultured together with other potential respiratory pathogens. A survey was conducted to assess the prevalence of N. cuniculi in the pharyngeal reg...

    journal_title:Epidemiology and infection

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1017/s0950268800048184

    authors: Elad D,Shlomovitz S,Bernstein M,Bassan J

    更新日期:1990-12-01 00:00:00

  • Barrow-in-Furness: a large community legionellosis outbreak in the UK.

    abstract::A community outbreak of legionellosis occurred in Barrow-in-Furness, Cumbria, during July and August 2002. A descriptive study and active case-finding were instigated and all known wet cooling systems and other potential sources were investigated. Genotypic and phenotypic analysis, and amplified fragment length polymo...

    journal_title:Epidemiology and infection

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1017/S0950268813002483

    authors: Bennett E,Ashton M,Calvert N,Chaloner J,Cheesbrough J,Egan J,Farrell I,Hall I,Harrison TG,Naik FC,Partridge S,Syed Q,Gent RN

    更新日期:2014-08-01 00:00:00

  • An audit of rubella IgG antibody status in antenatal women in a NHS Trust over 5 years (2005-2009).

    abstract::Rubella, a vaccine-preventable infection. This study examined the antibody status of 11 987 pregnant women during 2005-2009. Results showed a non-significant decrease in those with antibody levels of <4·0 IU/ml from 29/2312 (1·3%) in 2005 to 21/2447 (0·9%) in 2009 (χ² for linear trend=0·279, P=0·56) but a significant ...

    journal_title:Epidemiology and infection

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1017/S0950268810002748

    authors: Matthews LA,Lawrance LM,Gray D,Gray S

    更新日期:2011-11-01 00:00:00

  • Salmonellosis associated with mass catering: a survey of European Union cases over a 15-year period.

    abstract::Salmonella spp. is the causative agent of a foodborne disease called salmonellosis, which is the second most commonly reported gastrointestinal infection in the European Union (EU). Although over the years the annual number of cases of foodborne salmonellosis within the EU has decreased markedly, in 2014, a total of 8...

    journal_title:Epidemiology and infection

    pub_type: 杂志文章,评审

    doi:10.1017/S0950268816001540

    authors: Osimani A,Aquilanti L,Clementi F

    更新日期:2016-10-01 00:00:00

  • Differentiation between serological responses to Brucella suis and Yersinia enterocolitica serotype O:9 after natural or experimental infection in pigs.

    abstract::False-positive serological reactions (FPSR) due to infections with Yersinia enterocolitica serotype Oratio9 (YeOratio9) are a problem in tests for brucellosis. In the present study, FPSR in classical and novel tests for brucellosis following experimental infections of pigs with YeOratio9 were compared with responses o...

    journal_title:Epidemiology and infection

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1017/S095026880500511X

    authors: Jungersen G,Sørensen V,Giese SB,Stack JA,Riber U

    更新日期:2006-04-01 00:00:00

  • Usefulness of the DNA-fingerprinting pattern and the multilocus enzyme electrophoresis profile in the assessment of outbreaks of meningococcal disease.

    abstract::The objective of the study was to assess whether genotypic characterization by means of DNA-fingerprinting pattern (DFP) and multilocus enzyme electrophoresis (MEE) profile as compared to phenotypic characterization would improve the differentiation of Neisseria meningitidis strains associated with outbreaks from stra...

    journal_title:Epidemiology and infection

    pub_type: 杂志文章

    doi:10.1017/s0950268800052328

    authors: Weis N,Lind I

    更新日期:1996-04-01 00:00:00