Abstract:
:Human and natural systems have adapted to and evolved within historical climatic conditions. Anthropogenic climate change has the potential to alter these conditions such that onset of unprecedented climatic extremes will outpace evolutionary and adaptive capabilities. To assess whether and when future climate extremes exceed their historical windows of variability within impact-relevant socioeconomic, geopolitical, and ecological domains, we investigate the timing of perceivable changes (time of emergence; TOE) for 18 magnitude-, frequency-, and severity-based extreme temperature (10) and precipitation (8) indices using both multimodel and single-model multirealization ensembles. Under a high-emission scenario, we find that the signal of frequency- and severity-based temperature extremes is projected to rise above historical noise earliest in midlatitudes, whereas magnitude-based temperature extremes emerge first in low and high latitudes. Precipitation extremes demonstrate different emergence patterns, with severity-based indices first emerging over midlatitudes, and magnitude- and frequency-based indices emerging earliest in low and high latitudes. Applied to impact-relevant domains, simulated TOE patterns suggest (a) unprecedented consecutive dry day occurrence in >50% of 14 terrestrial biomes and 12 marine realms prior to 2100, (b) earlier perceivable changes in climate extremes in countries with lower per capita GDP, and (c) emergence of severe and frequent heat extremes well-before 2030 for the 590 most populous urban centers. Elucidating extreme-metric and domain-type TOE heterogeneities highlights the challenges adaptation planners face in confronting the consequences of elevated twenty-first century radiative forcing.
journal_name
Glob Chang Bioljournal_title
Global change biologyauthors
Tan X,Gan TY,Horton DEdoi
10.1111/gcb.14329subject
Has Abstractpub_date
2018-10-01 00:00:00pages
4696-4708issue
10eissn
1354-1013issn
1365-2486journal_volume
24pub_type
杂志文章abstract::As the effects of the Global Climate Changes on the costal regions of Central and South Americas advance, there is proportionally little research being made to understand such impacts. This commentary puts forward a series of propositions of strategies to improve performance of Central and South American science and p...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.12186
更新日期:2013-07-01 00:00:00
abstract::A growing body of literature seeks to explain variation in range shifts using species' ecological and life-history traits, with expectations that shifts should be greater in species with greater dispersal ability, reproductive potential, and ecological generalization. Despite strong theoretical support for species' tr...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章,meta分析,评审
doi:10.1111/gcb.13736
更新日期:2017-10-01 00:00:00
abstract::Diagnostic carbon cycle models produce estimates of net ecosystem production (NEP, the balance of net primary production and heterotrophic respiration) by integrating information from (i) satellite-based observations of land surface vegetation characteristics; (ii) distributed meteorological data; and (iii) eddy covar...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.12313
更新日期:2013-11-01 00:00:00
abstract::One widely documented phenological response to climate change is the earlier occurrence of spring-breeding events. While such climate change-driven shifts in phenology are common, their consequences for individuals and populations have rarely been investigated. I addressed this gap in our knowledge by using a multi-ye...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.12720
更新日期:2015-03-01 00:00:00
abstract::Changes in peak photosynthesis timing (PPT) could substantially change the seasonality of the terrestrial carbon cycle. Spring PPT in dry regions has been documented for some individual plant species on a stand scale, but both the spatio-temporal pattern of shifting PPT on a continental scale and its determinants rema...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.13224
更新日期:2016-08-01 00:00:00
abstract::Shifts in nitrogen (N) mineralization and nitrification rates due to global changes can influence nutrient availability, which can affect terrestrial productivity and climate change feedbacks. While many single-factor studies have examined the effects of environmental changes on N mineralization and nitrification, few...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.12063
更新日期:2013-02-01 00:00:00
abstract::Global biodiversity is under high and rising anthropogenic pressure. Yet, how the taxonomic, phylogenetic, and functional facets of biodiversity are affected by different threats over time is unclear. This is particularly true for the two main drivers of the current biodiversity crisis: habitat destruction and overexp...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.15418
更新日期:2021-02-01 00:00:00
abstract::Soil carbon cycling processes potentially play a large role in biotic feedbacks to climate change, but little agreement exists at present on what the core of numerical soil C cycling models should look like. In contrast, most canopy models of photosynthesis and leaf gas exchange share a common 'Farquhaur-model' core s...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.12718
更新日期:2014-12-01 00:00:00
abstract::Accounting for water stress-induced tree mortality in forest productivity models remains a challenge due to uncertainty in stress tolerance of tree populations. In this study, logistic regression models were developed to assess species-specific relationships between probability of mortality (Pm ) and drought, drawing ...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.13428
更新日期:2017-04-01 00:00:00
abstract::Development efforts for poverty reduction and food security in sub-Saharan Africa will have to consider future climate change impacts. Large uncertainties in climate change impact assessments do not necessarily complicate, but can inform development strategies. The design of development strategies will need to conside...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.12586
更新日期:2014-08-01 00:00:00
abstract::Broadacre livestock production is a major but highly diverse component of agriculture in Australia that will be significantly exposed to predicted changes in climate over coming decades. We used the GRAZPLAN simulation models to assess the impacts of climate change under the SRES A2 scenario across southern Australia....
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.12150
更新日期:2013-05-01 00:00:00
abstract::Climate change, land-use change and introductions of non-native species are key determinants of biodiversity change worldwide. However, the extent to which anthropogenic drivers of environmental change interact to affect biological communities is largely unknown, especially over longer time periods. Here, we show that...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.14765
更新日期:2019-12-01 00:00:00
abstract::Elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations increase plant productivity and affect soil microbial communities, with possible consequences for the turnover rate of soil carbon (C) pools and feedbacks to the atmosphere. In a previous analysis (Van Groenigen et al., 2014), we used experimental data to inform a one-pool model...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.13074
更新日期:2015-12-01 00:00:00
abstract::Unprecedented rates of climate warming over the past century have resulted in increased forest stress and mortality worldwide. Decreased tree growth in association with increasing temperatures is generally accepted as a signal of temperature-induced drought stress. However, variations in tree growth alone do not revea...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.12893
更新日期:2015-08-01 00:00:00
abstract::In the forest-tundra ecotone of the North Fennoscandian inland, summer and winter temperatures have increased by two to three centigrades since 1965, which is expected to result in major vegetation changes. To document the expected expansion of woodlands and scrublands and its impact on the arctic vegetation, we repea...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.13710
更新日期:2017-09-01 00:00:00
abstract::The consequences of the 2019-2020 bushfires in Australia were also devastating for the aquatic biota. Following abnormal rainfall events in burnt areas, widespread mortality events including fish and invertebrates were recorded in estuarine and freshwater systems. Such negative impacts on aquatic resources highlight t...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 信件
doi:10.1111/gcb.15282
更新日期:2020-10-01 00:00:00
abstract::The importance of herbivore-plant and soil biota-plant interactions in terrestrial ecosystems is amply recognized, but the effects of aboveground herbivores on soil biota remain challenging to predict. To find global patterns in belowground responses to vertebrate herbivores, we performed a meta-analysis of studies th...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章,meta分析
doi:10.1111/gcb.13675
更新日期:2017-09-01 00:00:00
abstract::Rodents damaging alfalfa crops typically destined for export to booming Eastern markets often cause economical losses to farmers, but management interventions attempting to control rodents (i.e., use of rodenticides) are themselves damaging to biodiversity. These damages resonate beyond dairy feed producing regions th...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 信件
doi:10.1111/gcb.14170
更新日期:2018-07-01 00:00:00
abstract::In macroalgal-dominated systems, herbivory is a major driver in controlling ecosystem structure. However, the role of altered plant-herbivore interactions and effects of changes to trophic control under global change are poorly understood. This is because both macroalgae and grazers themselves may be affected by globa...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.14370
更新日期:2018-10-01 00:00:00
abstract::The greenhouse gas (GHG) balance of European grasslands (EU-28 plus Norway and Switzerland), including CO2 , CH4 and N2 O, is estimated using the new process-based biogeochemical model ORCHIDEE-GM over the period 1961-2010. The model includes the following: (1) a mechanistic representation of the spatial distribution ...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.12998
更新日期:2015-10-01 00:00:00
abstract::Hydraulic impairment due to xylem embolism and carbon starvation are the two proposed mechanisms explaining drought-induced forest dieback and tree death. Here, we evaluate the relative role played by these two mechanisms in the long-term by quantifying wood-anatomical traits (tracheid size and area of parenchyma rays...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.13227
更新日期:2016-06-01 00:00:00
abstract::Several temperate tree species are expected to migrate northward and colonize boreal forests in response to climate change. Tree migrations could lead to transitions in forest types, but these could be influenced by several non-climatic factors, such as disturbances and soil conditions. We analysed over 10,000 forest ...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.15143
更新日期:2020-08-01 00:00:00
abstract::Climate change poses a considerable threat to the biodiversity of high altitude ecosystems worldwide, including cold-water river systems that are responding rapidly to a shrinking cryosphere. Most recent research has demonstrated the severe vulnerability of river invertebrates to glacier retreat but effects upon other...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.14454
更新日期:2018-12-01 00:00:00
abstract::The tropical peat swamp forests of South-East Asia are being rapidly converted to agricultural plantations of oil palm and Acacia creating a significant global "hot-spot" for CO2 emissions. However, the effect of this major perturbation has yet to be quantified in terms of global warming potential (GWP) and the Earth'...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.14400
更新日期:2018-11-01 00:00:00
abstract::Land use for animal production influences the earth system in a variety of ways, including local-scale modification to biodiversity, soils, and nutrient cycling; regional changes in albedo and hydrology; and global-scale changes in greenhouse gas and aerosol concentrations. Pasture is furthermore the single most exten...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.13732
更新日期:2017-11-01 00:00:00
abstract::One of the greatest current challenges to human society is ensuring adequate food production and security for a rapidly growing population under changing climatic conditions. Climate change, and specifically rising temperatures, will alter the suitability of areas for specific crops and cultivation systems. In order t...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.13959
更新日期:2018-02-01 00:00:00
abstract::The rapid global biodiversity loss has led to the decline in ecosystem function. Despite the critical importance of soil respiration (Rs) in the global carbon and nutrient cycles, how plant diversity loss affects Rs remains uncertain. Here we present a meta-analysis using 446 paired observations from 95 published stud...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.14567
更新日期:2019-01-06 00:00:00
abstract::Most tree roots on Earth form a symbiosis with either ecto- or arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi. Nitrogen fertilization is hypothesized to favor arbuscular mycorrhizal tree species at the expense of ectomycorrhizal species due to differences in fungal nitrogen acquisition strategies, and this may alter soil carbon balance...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.14368
更新日期:2018-10-01 00:00:00
abstract::Organic carbon (OC) sequestration in degraded semi-arid environments by improved soil management is assumed to contribute substantially to climate change mitigation. However, information about the soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration potential in steppe soils and their current saturation status remains unknown. In ...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.12957
更新日期:2015-10-01 00:00:00
abstract::Changes in rocky shore community composition as responses to climatic fluctuations and anthropogenic warming can be shown by changes in average species thermal affinities. In this study, we derived thermal affinities for European Atlantic rocky intertidal species by matching their known distributions to patterns in av...
journal_title:Global change biology
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1111/gcb.14968
更新日期:2019-12-20 00:00:00