Abstract:
:We present the results from a novel surveillance system for detecting excess all-cause mortality by age group in England and Wales developed during the pandemic influenza A(H1N1) 2009 period from April 2009 to March 2010. A Poisson regression model was fitted to age-specific mortality data from 1999 to 2008 and used to predict the expected number of weekly deaths in the absence of extreme health events. The system included adjustment for reporting delays. During the pandemic, excess all-cause mortality was seen in the 5-14 years age group, where mortality was flagged as being in excess for 1 week after the second peak in pandemic influenza activity; and in age groups >45 years during a period of very cold weather. This new system has utility for rapidly estimating excess mortality for other acute public health events such as extreme heat or cold weather.
journal_name
Epidemiol Infectjournal_title
Epidemiology and infectionauthors
Hardelid P,Andrews N,Pebody Rdoi
10.1017/S0950268811000410subject
Has Abstractpub_date
2011-09-01 00:00:00pages
1431-9issue
9eissn
0950-2688issn
1469-4409pii
S0950268811000410journal_volume
139pub_type
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