Abstract:
:To determine if a prediction of epidemic cholera using climate data can be made, we performed autoregression analysis using the data recorded in Dhaka City, Bangladesh over a 20-year period (1983-2002) comparing the number of children aged <10 years who were infected with Vibrio cholerae O1 to the maximum and minimum temperatures and rainfall. We formulated a simple autoregression model that predicts the monthly number of patients using earlier climate variables. The monthly number of patients predicted by this model agreed well with the actual monthly number of patients where the Pearson's correlation coefficient was 0.95. Arbitrarily defined, 39.4% of the predicted numbers during the study period were within 0.8-1.2 times the observed numbers. This prediction model uses the climate data recorded 2-4 months before. Therefore, our approach may be a good basis for establishing a practical early warning system for epidemic cholera.
journal_name
Epidemiol Infectjournal_title
Epidemiology and infectionauthors
Matsuda F,Ishimura S,Wagatsuma Y,Higashi T,Hayashi T,Faruque AS,Sack DA,Nishibuchi Mdoi
10.1017/S0950268807008175subject
Has Abstractpub_date
2008-01-01 00:00:00pages
73-9issue
1eissn
0950-2688issn
1469-4409pii
S0950268807008175journal_volume
136pub_type
杂志文章abstract::Transmission of bovine herpesvirus 1 (BHV1) within and between herds was studied on the island of Ameland, The Netherlands. There were 50 herds with 3300 head of cattle on the island. Herds were divided into three groups: (1) only containing seronegative cattle, (2) containing seronegative cattle and vaccinated seropo...
journal_title:Epidemiology and infection
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:
更新日期:2003-06-01 00:00:00
abstract::The screening of 2000 women of childbearing age in Cork between 2004 and 2006 produced 37 erythromycin-resistant group B streptococcus (GBS) isolates. PCR analysis was performed to determine the basis for erythromycin resistance. The ermTR gene was most frequently expressed (n = 19), followed by the ermB gene (n = 8)....
journal_title:Epidemiology and infection
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1017/S0950268809990392
更新日期:2010-02-01 00:00:00
abstract::Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis (Map), the cause of ruminant paratuberculosis, has been proposed as the causative agent of Crohn's disease. The objective of this study was to determine whether exposure to clinical cases of bovine paratuberculosis was a risk factor for Crohn's disease. A questionnaire w...
journal_title:Epidemiology and infection
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1017/S0950268805004681
更新日期:2006-02-01 00:00:00
abstract::The Dutch and modified Hald source attribution models were adapted to Italian Salmonella data to attribute human infections caused by the top 30 serotypes between 2002 and 2010 to four putative sources (Gallus gallus, turkeys, pigs, ruminants), at the points of animal reservoir (farm), exposure (food), and both combin...
journal_title:Epidemiology and infection
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1017/S0950268813001829
更新日期:2014-05-01 00:00:00
abstract::The drug susceptibility and genes responsible for the drug resistance of Vibrio cholerae O1 isolated in Vietnam in 1995, 2000 and 2002 were studied. The strains isolated in 1995 were resistant to streptomycin and harboured the class I integron which contained the aadA1 gene responsible for streptomycin resistance. The...
journal_title:Epidemiology and infection
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1017/s0950268804002596
更新日期:2004-08-01 00:00:00
abstract::The objective of this study was to estimate the sensitivity of three different sampling/testing methodologies for the detection of Salmonella Enteritidis in commercial egg-laying flocks relative to the within-flock prevalence. The following methods were compared on 21 farms: (1) The European Union (EU) baseline survey...
journal_title:Epidemiology and infection
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1017/S0950268809990598
更新日期:2010-03-01 00:00:00
abstract::Experiments with 2 wild type isolates of Salmonella enterica serotype Enteritidis PT4, which differed in RpoS expression, tolerance to certain hostile environments and pathogenicity, found that changes in in vitro acid, heat, or peroxide tolerance had no effect on the ability of the isolates to multiply in the spleens...
journal_title:Epidemiology and infection
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1017/s0950268898001162
更新日期:1998-10-01 00:00:00
abstract::The possible association between Toxoplasma gondii infection and paediatric haematological malignancies in a group of patients and control subjects was evaluated in the present study. We performed an age-, gender- and residence frequency-matched case-control study of 101 blood cancer patients under 18 years of age, al...
journal_title:Epidemiology and infection
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1017/S0950268818002194
更新日期:2018-11-01 00:00:00
abstract::In Vietnam, highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 infections in poultry often occur without concomitant clinical signs and outbreaks are not consistently reported. Live bird markets represent a convenient site for surveillance that does not rely on farmers' notifications. Two H5N1 surveys were conducted at liv...
journal_title:Epidemiology and infection
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1017/S0950268812001112
更新日期:2013-03-01 00:00:00
abstract::Although community-onset bloodstream infection (BSI) is recognized to be a major cause of morbidity and mortality, there is a paucity of population-based studies defining its overall burden. We conducted population-based laboratory surveillance for all community-onset BSI in the Calgary Health Region during 2000-2004....
journal_title:Epidemiology and infection
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1017/S0950268806007631
更新日期:2007-08-01 00:00:00
abstract::Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) can be spread by a variety of mechanisms, including wind. Simulation models, developed to predict the risk of airborne spread, have played an important part in decision making in some outbreaks. The amount of airborne virus excreted as well as the minimal infectious dose (MID) of FM...
journal_title:Epidemiology and infection
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1017/s0950268801006501
更新日期:2002-04-01 00:00:00
abstract::This analysis assessed the utility of the limiting antigen avidity assay (LAg). Samples of people who inject drugs (PWID) in Greece with documented duration of HIV-1 infection were tested by LAg. A LAg-normalized optical density (ODn) ⩽1·5 corresponds to a recency window period of 130 days. The proportion true recent ...
journal_title:Epidemiology and infection
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1017/S0950268816002417
更新日期:2017-01-01 00:00:00
abstract::During a 15-month period in Scotland a small but important number of human Campylobacter cases (3·2%) arose from 91 putative household outbreaks. Of the 26 outbreaks with known strain composition, 89% were composed of the same MLST which supports the potential use of MLST in public health epidemiology. The number of c...
journal_title:Epidemiology and infection
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1017/S0950268810001457
更新日期:2010-12-01 00:00:00
abstract::Salmonella typhimurium is the most frequently identified serovar of Salmonella in Italy. This serovar is characterized by the widespread dissemination among human and non-human sources of phenotypically and genetically well-differentiated clones. In this study 457 strains of S. typhimurium isolated in Italy in the yea...
journal_title:Epidemiology and infection
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1017/s0950268800050974
更新日期:1993-06-01 00:00:00
abstract::British cattle were infected with the South African (Neethling) strain of lumpy skin disease virus (LSDV) and their clinical signs monitored over a 3-week period. Different routes of infection were assessed for effect on the clinical characteristics of the disease by using a clinical scoring system. Neither of 2 anima...
journal_title:Epidemiology and infection
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1017/s0950268800052067
更新日期:1995-02-01 00:00:00
abstract::The morphology of faecal microflora of nine healthy human volunteers was studied by digital image analysis of microscopic slides. Weekly specimens were collected during an 8-week period. Seven morphometrical parameters were derived: the means and medians of components 1, 2 and 3, and morphometrical entropy. Statistica...
journal_title:Epidemiology and infection
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1017/s0950268800049025
更新日期:1991-10-01 00:00:00
abstract::Previous modelling studies have estimated that between 1% and 10% of human salmonella infections are attributable to pig meat consumption. In response to this food safety threat the British pig industry have initiated a salmonella monitoring programme. It is anticipated that this programme will contribute to achieving...
journal_title:Epidemiology and infection
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1017/S0950268807008485
更新日期:2008-03-01 00:00:00
abstract::Influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) wanes over the course of a temperate climate winter season but little data are available from tropical countries with year-round influenza virus activity. In Singapore, a retrospective cohort study of adults vaccinated from 2013 to 2017 was conducted. Influenza vaccine failure was ...
journal_title:Epidemiology and infection
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1017/S0950268820002952
更新日期:2020-12-02 00:00:00
abstract::The transmission of tuberculosis (TB) in bars is difficult to study. The objective was to describe a large TB outbreak in a company's bar and other leisure settings. A descriptive study of a TB outbreak was carried out. Contacts were studied in the index case's workplace bar (five circles of contacts) and other recrea...
journal_title:Epidemiology and infection
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1017/S0950268817002588
更新日期:2017-12-01 00:00:00
abstract::Mumps outbreaks in recent years have given rise to questions about the effectiveness of the mumps vaccine. This study examined the epidemiological data from a recent mumps outbreak in Israel and from outbreaks in other countries with high vaccination coverage, and considered whether long-established vaccination polici...
journal_title:Epidemiology and infection
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1017/S095026881100063X
更新日期:2012-03-01 00:00:00
abstract::Clinical information was collected on 722 cases of Listeria monocytogenes infections in humans occurring in Britain between 1967 and 1985. This series comprised 34% (248 cases) associated with pregnancy and 66% (474 cases) in non-pregnant adults and juveniles. The cases not associated with pregnancy comprised: 76% in ...
journal_title:Epidemiology and infection
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1017/s0950268800059355
更新日期:1990-04-01 00:00:00
abstract::Enteric pathogens are commonly known to be transmitted through food or water; however, contact with animals is another important transmission route. This study estimated the annual burden of illness attributable to animal contact for eight enteric pathogens in Canada. Using data from a Canadian expert elicitation on t...
journal_title:Epidemiology and infection
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1017/S0950268817002436
更新日期:2017-12-01 00:00:00
abstract::The patterns of disease caused by five common viruses which infect the respiratory tract are described. The viruses were strains of rhinovirus types 2, 9, and 14, a strain of coronavirus type 229E and of respiratory syncytial virus. Volunteers were given nasal drops containing a low infectious dose of one of the virus...
journal_title:Epidemiology and infection
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1017/s0950268800056764
更新日期:1993-08-01 00:00:00
abstract::Pertussis morbidity is highest in infants too young to be fully protected by routine vaccination schedules. Alternate vaccine strategies are required to maximise protection in this age-group. To understand baseline pertussis epidemiology prior to the introduction of the maternal pertussis vaccination program in 2014, ...
journal_title:Epidemiology and infection
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1017/S0950268817002722
更新日期:2018-01-01 00:00:00
abstract::Two groups of pigs were infected with a recent Italian isolate of swine vesicular disease virus (SVDV). Blood, nasal swabs and faeces were collected for up to 6 months after exposure to infection and animals were killed at regular intervals to obtain tissues post-mortem. These samples were examined for virus by conven...
journal_title:Epidemiology and infection
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1017/s0950268898001332
更新日期:1998-10-01 00:00:00
abstract::Despite rapid urbanization and increasing affluence in Karachi, cases of cholera are frequent. We analysed computerized isolation data from the AKUH Clinical Microbiology Laboratory, Karachi, from 1990-6 to examine microbiological, temporal and demographic trends in Vibrio cholerae infections. During this period 888 s...
journal_title:Epidemiology and infection
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1017/s0950268897008212
更新日期:1997-12-01 00:00:00
abstract::During the 10-year period 1978-87 there were 48 outbreaks of food poisoning in Scottish hospitals affecting a total of 2287 persons of whom 12 died. This compared with 50 outbreaks during the previous 5 years (1973-77) when over 1500 persons and 7 deaths were recorded. Although the incidence of outbreaks has decreased...
journal_title:Epidemiology and infection
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1017/s095026880002954x
更新日期:1988-12-01 00:00:00
abstract::This study was conducted during the 2008-2009 respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) season in France to compare hospitalization rates for bronchiolitis (RSV-confirmed and all types) between very preterm infants (<33 weeks' gestational age, WGA) without bronchopulmonary dysplasia and full-term infants (39-41 WGA) matched f...
journal_title:Epidemiology and infection
pub_type: 杂志文章,多中心研究
doi:10.1017/S0950268812001069
更新日期:2013-04-01 00:00:00
abstract::Forty-five human rabies virus isolates from a wide geographical area of Brazil were characterized using an anti-nucleoprotein monoclonal antibody panel and by partial nucleotide sequencing analysis of the nucleoprotein gene. Three major antigenic groups related to the antigenic variants maintained in domestic dogs, va...
journal_title:Epidemiology and infection
pub_type: 杂志文章
doi:10.1017/S0950268813000198
更新日期:2013-07-01 00:00:00
abstract::To assess areas at risk for poliovirus circulation in Ecuador, we first selected provinces at highest risk based on low immunization coverage with three doses of oral poliovirus vaccine, and a low number of reported cases of acute flaccid paralysis (AFP). Subsequently, we reviewed discharge data for the period 1996--2...
journal_title:Epidemiology and infection
pub_type: 杂志文章,多中心研究
doi:10.1017/s0950268804002626
更新日期:2004-10-01 00:00:00