Prediction of epidemic cholera due to Vibrio cholerae O1 in children younger than 10 years using climate data in Bangladesh.

Abstract:

:To determine if a prediction of epidemic cholera using climate data can be made, we performed autoregression analysis using the data recorded in Dhaka City, Bangladesh over a 20-year period (1983-2002) comparing the number of children aged <10 years who were infected with Vibrio cholerae O1 to the maximum and minimum temperatures and rainfall. We formulated a simple autoregression model that predicts the monthly number of patients using earlier climate variables. The monthly number of patients predicted by this model agreed well with the actual monthly number of patients where the Pearson's correlation coefficient was 0.95. Arbitrarily defined, 39.4% of the predicted numbers during the study period were within 0.8-1.2 times the observed numbers. This prediction model uses the climate data recorded 2-4 months before. Therefore, our approach may be a good basis for establishing a practical early warning system for epidemic cholera.

journal_name

Epidemiol Infect

authors

Matsuda F,Ishimura S,Wagatsuma Y,Higashi T,Hayashi T,Faruque AS,Sack DA,Nishibuchi M

doi

10.1017/S0950268807008175

subject

Has Abstract

pub_date

2008-01-01 00:00:00

pages

73-9

issue

1

eissn

0950-2688

issn

1469-4409

pii

S0950268807008175

journal_volume

136

pub_type

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